Nick Langworthy on primary night. (Jimmy Vielkind / Times Union)

NEW YORK — Think about it. If the polls are anywhere within a million miles of correct, Carl Paladino won’t be able to pull out a victory over Andrew Cuomo. But that doesn’ mean that Erie County Republican Chairman Nick Langworthy won’t have won in the long-run.

He’s stood by his favorite son from the beginning, and that favorite son has deep pockets (and, as we found, some controversial views and styles.) So Langworthy stands to gain a major benefactor, but as a smart reader pointed out to me — and I wish I could give him credit by name, because this was a great observation, but he demurred — Langworthy may also find himself a major force in the Republican State Committee going forward.

Think back to the Lavzimeld Tally. The county chairs cast their lots with a weighting according to how many votes their county delivered for the party’s gubernatorial candidate. In the primary, Erie County alone delivered nearly 43,000 of the 273,000 votes that Paladino received. I think we can expect the same turnout trends.

If they do, Erie County would account for 16 percent of the Republican vote — DOUBLE the 6.93 percent they contributed in 2002. Add in high returns in Niagara, Wyoming and Chautauqua counties, where Paladino is expected to do well, and couple that with Paladino’s cool reception in New York City and its suburbs, and we’re looking at a major shift in the GOP balance of power.

This will be significant at the convention, OR in the selection of a new state chairman, which should happen next autumn. Langworthy was aglow when Paladino had won, the old establishment of the Republican Party smashed.

I just spoke to Langworthy. He said that things are going very well. He was boastful without meaning to be.

“My responsibility is obviously Erie County, and we have done everything we possibly can to turn out every last Republican vote,” he said. There is “really heavy” turnout, but “we don’t see much turnout in the city, in the heavily Democratic areas.”

“I think we demonstrated in the primary that we can lead the way in Western New York in a primary, and that the upstate base is really the base of the party,” he said. “I haven’t really thought as much about it beyond that. We’re just trying to get out the vote, everything else gets settled out later.”

Interviewed this morning on Fred Dicker’s Talk 1300 show, Senate Republican leader Dean Skelos said the GOP could find itself with a 34- to 36-seat majority after the polls close.

“I think Brian Foley is history,” Skelos said, also mentioning the fights to take down Democrats Darrel Aubertine, David Valesky and Suzi Oppenheimer among the races that the party has poured last-minute resources into.

Dicker asked if the 2011 Republican majority would behave differently from the pre-2008 version, which cut numerous deals with unions that resulted in higher state spending.

“The answer is yes,” Skelos said. “In many ways, we lost our way in the past, and we got the message and we’re going to correct the direction of the state.”

Skelos said he felt confident he would be retained as majority leader.

He predicted that wins by Dan Donovan and Harry Wilson and a curtailment of the Assembly’s Democratic majority would put pressure on Sheldon Silver to deal on issues such as a property tax cap.

Dicker’s other guest, Sen. Liz Krueger, insisted Democrats would retain the majority. While the national trend has been more conservative, she said that hasn’t been the case in New York: “Frankly, there has been no excitement at the top of the ticket,” she said.

Krueger said Frank Padavaan and James Alesi would go down to defeat, and Democrats would take several open seats upstate.

Dicker asked how much the AEG report had tarred the entire Democratic effort. “It’s not a great reality for people in the Senate. It actually doesn’t mean that much for the candidates — they’re running to change Albany,” she said.

Krueger said voters “shouldn’t forget that the model of how the AEG process went forward was a Joe Bruno bill that Dean Skelos voted for.” Oppenheimer voted against the plan.

Oppenheimer said that after decades of Republican rule, “no one” expected the Democrats to turn everything around in just two years.

Dicker allowed that, in fact, he had hoped that would be the case.

Listen to the full show podcast here.

We had a brief story this morning, next year’s projected budget deficit has grown from $8.2 to $9 billion. Here are some more details, just out from the Division of the Budget. Here’s their release and the link :

New York State Division of the Budget Releases Mid-Year Financial Plan Update

The New York State Division of the Budget today announced, through the Mid-Year Financial Plan Update, that the continued sluggish economic recovery is driving higher-than anticipated spending in government entitlement programs while modestly depressing State revenue collections, putting New York State on course for an estimated deficit of $315 million in the current fiscal year. However, the Mid-Year Plan shows that New York’s economy and fiscal health has largely stabilized when compared to the volatility of the last two years, which saw mid-year budget deficits of $3.2 billion in 2009-2010 and $1.5 billion in 2008-2009. The current-year budget deficit would have been approximately $1 billion had the Governor not taken action and vetoed legislation that included spending that was not funded in the budget.

The Mid-Year Update observes that the national and State economies continue to perform below expectations on most major indicators, contributing to lower than expected tax collections and higher than expected Medicaid costs to date. For the entire 2010-11 fiscal year, the Mid-Year Update projects General Fund tax collections will come in $278 million lower than originally projected. Additionally, Medicaid spending is projected to increase more than originally projected this fiscal year in part because of a higher than anticipated caseload. The Mid-Year update also revises the Enacted Budget Plan’s 2010-11 projections upward for inflation, to 1.3 percent (from 1.1 percent), and downward for personal income growth, to 4 percent (from 4.3 percent).

“As I have during my entire tenure in office, I will do everything in my power to protect the fiscal integrity of New York, and I am determined to ensure that the State is on sound financial footing when I leave office at the end of December,” Governor Paterson said. “There are sure to be great days ahead for New York, but until our State and our nation emerge from this long and difficult downturn, we must make the difficult decisions to ensure economic recovery does not leave us behind.”

Governor Paterson intends to ask the Legislature to take actions necessary to close the 2010-11 deficit.

The State-financed portion of the budget is estimated to grow by just 0.3 percent in 2010-11; however, over the next four years, it is projected to grow faster than both personal income and inflation, absent measures to control spending. Based on current law, State Operating Funds spending is projected to increase, largely due to mandated spending, at 6.9 percent annually from 2010-11 through 2013-14, while State tax receipts are projected to grow at 4.3 percent annually. State Operating Funds include the General Fund and special revenue funds that collect various State taxes and State user fees.

As a result of these trends, the update projects larger future year General Fund budget deficits than initial estimates: $9 billion for 2011-12, up approximately $850 million from the $8.2 billion deficit forecast in the Enacted 2010-11 State Budget Plan; $14.6 billion in 2012-13 (an increase of $1.2 billion from the Enacted Budget forecast), and $17.2 billion in 2013-14 (an increase of $1.7 billion).

Much of the projected deficit for 2011-12 is attributable to two factors: the expiration of Federal stimulus funding for Medicaid and education, which is expected to result in approximately $5.4 billion in costs reverting to the State General Fund starting in 2011-12, and the scheduled expiration at the end of calendar 2011 of the temporary personal income tax increase that was enacted in 2009-10. That is expected to reduce collections of personal income taxes by more than $1 billion in 2011-12 compared with 2010-11.

A link to the full report is available at the following link:

http://publications.budget.state.ny.us/budgetFP/1011midyear/2010-11_MidYearUpdate.pdf

Expenditures

In addition to the Medicaid caseload increase, the Federal government is increasing its share of rebates from drug manufacturers, driving additional State costs for the program. Rising costs of provider health care services (particularly in long term care), medical care cost inflation that affects nearly all categories of service, such as hospitals and nursing homes, and higher levels of utilization, as well as the expiration of the temporarily enhanced levels of Federal aid, also will drive additional State Medicaid expenditures.

Through September 30, 2010, spending on Medicaid, the government health care program for the poor, exceeded original estimates by more than $110 million, largely due to high unemployment. The trend has continued into October 2010. For the entire 2010-11 fiscal year, which runs from April 1, 2010 through March 31, 2011, the Mid-Year Update projects the State’s portion of Medicaid spending will increase by $368 million.

Projections for the public assistance caseload over the multi-year plan have been increased significantly compared to the Enacted Budget Plan forecast, based on the latest economic forecast and updated program data. Increased spending on Medicaid and public assistance – both entitlement programs – is partially offset by lower-than-expected spending in child welfare services and labor settlements, while some resources have materialized since the 2010-11 State Budget was enacted.

Across-the-board State agency operating costs are now projected to be $150 million higher than originally estimated for 2010-11 because the State is unable to realize a longer fiscal benefit of cost-reducing measures within the current fiscal year. However, as the State realizes the full annual benefit of these measures, State operations savings are now expected to exceed anticipated savings levels for 2011-12 by an equal amount.

School aid costs are expected to increase above projections beginning in 2011-12, based on additional claims filed since May 2010, updated wealth and demographic information reported by school districts and a full-scale recalibration of demographic and enrollment factors within the Foundation Aid formula.

Tuition Assistance Program (TAP) grants are expected to increase beyond original projections, the result of current economic conditions and in particular high unemployment rates driving increased student enrollment in State and City University of New York community colleges and other institutions of higher education.

Expenses of the Community Projects Fund may be lower than projected in 2010-11 as a result of Governor Paterson’s vetoes of member-item reappropriations.

Mental Health costs are projected to increase over the multi-year forecast period to reflect a revision to the statutorily-based 2011-12 human services COLA based on a 1.2 percent cost of living adjustment, higher fringe benefit rates, additional costs related to court-ordered funding for supported housing beds and support services, revised estimates for funding of the Sex Offender Management and Treatment Act of 2007 (SOMTA, or the civil confinement law) and the projected phase-in of required beds and services.

Although the current round of collective bargaining agreements with public employee labor unions expires at the end of 2010-11, the Financial Plan does not include any costs for potential wage increases beyond that point.

The Mid-Year Update estimates approximately $200 million in health care savings beginning in 2013-14 expected from the implementation of national health care reform.

Adjusted State Operating Funds spending is projected to total $79.2 billion in 2010-11, a 0.3 percent increase over 2009-10 results and about $200 million higher than originally forecast. All Funds spending, also adjusted for a one-time delay of $2.1 billion in school aid from 2009-10 into 2010-11, is projected to total $135.3 billion for the current year, a 6.6 percent increase over last year and about $1.5 billion higher than initially projected.

Revenues

Through September 30, 2010, General Fund tax receipts came in about $510 million below levels budgeted in the Financial Plan, while litigation has delayed and is expected to reduce originally-projected amounts of tax collections for cigarettes sold on Native American reservations to non-Indians.

For the full 2010-11 fiscal year, projections of personal income tax receipts have been revised downward by approximately $300 million, reflecting weakness in quarterly estimated payments. Receipts from user taxes have also been projected lower in the current year based on consumer spending data and actual collections, but such collections are expected to rebound in 2011-12. Receipts from statewide lottery games continue to fall below expectations as a result of the economic downturn.

Projected receipts from business taxes and other taxes have been increased modestly for both 2010-11 and 2011-12, reflecting unanticipated strength in estimated payments from banks and the performance of the real estate sector. The State is also witnessing higher than originally projected receipts from legal recoveries and surplus workers’ compensation funds, as well as a one-time benefit of $43 million from the termination of its existing synthetic variable-rate swaps in September 2010.

For the entire 2010-11 fiscal year, the Mid-Year Update projects General Fund tax collections will come in $278 million lower than originally projected.

###

Permalink: http://readme.readmedia.com/New-York-State-Division-of-the-Budget-Releases-Mid-Year-Financial-Plan-Update/1765284

We had a brief story this morning, next year’s projected budget deficit has grown from $8.2 to $9 billion. Here are some more details, just out from the Division of the Budget. Here’s their release and the link :

New York State Division of the Budget Releases Mid-Year Financial Plan Update

The New York State Division of the Budget today announced, through the Mid-Year Financial Plan Update, that the continued sluggish economic recovery is driving higher-than anticipated spending in government entitlement programs while modestly depressing State revenue collections, putting New York State on course for an estimated deficit of $315 million in the current fiscal year. However, the Mid-Year Plan shows that New York’s economy and fiscal health has largely stabilized when compared to the volatility of the last two years, which saw mid-year budget deficits of $3.2 billion in 2009-2010 and $1.5 billion in 2008-2009. The current-year budget deficit would have been approximately $1 billion had the Governor not taken action and vetoed legislation that included spending that was not funded in the budget.

The Mid-Year Update observes that the national and State economies continue to perform below expectations on most major indicators, contributing to lower than expected tax collections and higher than expected Medicaid costs to date. For the entire 2010-11 fiscal year, the Mid-Year Update projects General Fund tax collections will come in $278 million lower than originally projected. Additionally, Medicaid spending is projected to increase more than originally projected this fiscal year in part because of a higher than anticipated caseload. The Mid-Year update also revises the Enacted Budget Plan’s 2010-11 projections upward for inflation, to 1.3 percent (from 1.1 percent), and downward for personal income growth, to 4 percent (from 4.3 percent).

“As I have during my entire tenure in office, I will do everything in my power to protect the fiscal integrity of New York, and I am determined to ensure that the State is on sound financial footing when I leave office at the end of December,” Governor Paterson said. “There are sure to be great days ahead for New York, but until our State and our nation emerge from this long and difficult downturn, we must make the difficult decisions to ensure economic recovery does not leave us behind.”

Governor Paterson intends to ask the Legislature to take actions necessary to close the 2010-11 deficit.

The State-financed portion of the budget is estimated to grow by just 0.3 percent in 2010-11; however, over the next four years, it is projected to grow faster than both personal income and inflation, absent measures to control spending. Based on current law, State Operating Funds spending is projected to increase, largely due to mandated spending, at 6.9 percent annually from 2010-11 through 2013-14, while State tax receipts are projected to grow at 4.3 percent annually. State Operating Funds include the General Fund and special revenue funds that collect various State taxes and State user fees.

As a result of these trends, the update projects larger future year General Fund budget deficits than initial estimates: $9 billion for 2011-12, up approximately $850 million from the $8.2 billion deficit forecast in the Enacted 2010-11 State Budget Plan; $14.6 billion in 2012-13 (an increase of $1.2 billion from the Enacted Budget forecast), and $17.2 billion in 2013-14 (an increase of $1.7 billion).

Much of the projected deficit for 2011-12 is attributable to two factors: the expiration of Federal stimulus funding for Medicaid and education, which is expected to result in approximately $5.4 billion in costs reverting to the State General Fund starting in 2011-12, and the scheduled expiration at the end of calendar 2011 of the temporary personal income tax increase that was enacted in 2009-10. That is expected to reduce collections of personal income taxes by more than $1 billion in 2011-12 compared with 2010-11.

A link to the full report is available at the following link:

http://publications.budget.state.ny.us/budgetFP/1011midyear/2010-11_MidYearUpdate.pdf

Expenditures

In addition to the Medicaid caseload increase, the Federal government is increasing its share of rebates from drug manufacturers, driving additional State costs for the program. Rising costs of provider health care services (particularly in long term care), medical care cost inflation that affects nearly all categories of service, such as hospitals and nursing homes, and higher levels of utilization, as well as the expiration of the temporarily enhanced levels of Federal aid, also will drive additional State Medicaid expenditures.

Through September 30, 2010, spending on Medicaid, the government health care program for the poor, exceeded original estimates by more than $110 million, largely due to high unemployment. The trend has continued into October 2010. For the entire 2010-11 fiscal year, which runs from April 1, 2010 through March 31, 2011, the Mid-Year Update projects the State’s portion of Medicaid spending will increase by $368 million.

Projections for the public assistance caseload over the multi-year plan have been increased significantly compared to the Enacted Budget Plan forecast, based on the latest economic forecast and updated program data. Increased spending on Medicaid and public assistance – both entitlement programs – is partially offset by lower-than-expected spending in child welfare services and labor settlements, while some resources have materialized since the 2010-11 State Budget was enacted.

Across-the-board State agency operating costs are now projected to be $150 million higher than originally estimated for 2010-11 because the State is unable to realize a longer fiscal benefit of cost-reducing measures within the current fiscal year. However, as the State realizes the full annual benefit of these measures, State operations savings are now expected to exceed anticipated savings levels for 2011-12 by an equal amount.

School aid costs are expected to increase above projections beginning in 2011-12, based on additional claims filed since May 2010, updated wealth and demographic information reported by school districts and a full-scale recalibration of demographic and enrollment factors within the Foundation Aid formula.

Tuition Assistance Program (TAP) grants are expected to increase beyond original projections, the result of current economic conditions and in particular high unemployment rates driving increased student enrollment in State and City University of New York community colleges and other institutions of higher education.

Expenses of the Community Projects Fund may be lower than projected in 2010-11 as a result of Governor Paterson’s vetoes of member-item reappropriations.

Mental Health costs are projected to increase over the multi-year forecast period to reflect a revision to the statutorily-based 2011-12 human services COLA based on a 1.2 percent cost of living adjustment, higher fringe benefit rates, additional costs related to court-ordered funding for supported housing beds and support services, revised estimates for funding of the Sex Offender Management and Treatment Act of 2007 (SOMTA, or the civil confinement law) and the projected phase-in of required beds and services.

Although the current round of collective bargaining agreements with public employee labor unions expires at the end of 2010-11, the Financial Plan does not include any costs for potential wage increases beyond that point.

The Mid-Year Update estimates approximately $200 million in health care savings beginning in 2013-14 expected from the implementation of national health care reform.

Adjusted State Operating Funds spending is projected to total $79.2 billion in 2010-11, a 0.3 percent increase over 2009-10 results and about $200 million higher than originally forecast. All Funds spending, also adjusted for a one-time delay of $2.1 billion in school aid from 2009-10 into 2010-11, is projected to total $135.3 billion for the current year, a 6.6 percent increase over last year and about $1.5 billion higher than initially projected.

Revenues

Through September 30, 2010, General Fund tax receipts came in about $510 million below levels budgeted in the Financial Plan, while litigation has delayed and is expected to reduce originally-projected amounts of tax collections for cigarettes sold on Native American reservations to non-Indians.

For the full 2010-11 fiscal year, projections of personal income tax receipts have been revised downward by approximately $300 million, reflecting weakness in quarterly estimated payments. Receipts from user taxes have also been projected lower in the current year based on consumer spending data and actual collections, but such collections are expected to rebound in 2011-12. Receipts from statewide lottery games continue to fall below expectations as a result of the economic downturn.

Projected receipts from business taxes and other taxes have been increased modestly for both 2010-11 and 2011-12, reflecting unanticipated strength in estimated payments from banks and the performance of the real estate sector. The State is also witnessing higher than originally projected receipts from legal recoveries and surplus workers’ compensation funds, as well as a one-time benefit of $43 million from the termination of its existing synthetic variable-rate swaps in September 2010.

For the entire 2010-11 fiscal year, the Mid-Year Update projects General Fund tax collections will come in $278 million lower than originally projected.

###

Permalink: http://readme.readmedia.com/New-York-State-Division-of-the-Budget-Releases-Mid-Year-Financial-Plan-Update/1765284

We had a brief story this morning, next year’s projected budget deficit has grown from $8.2 to $9 billion. Here are some more details, just out from the Division of the Budget.

Update: Here’s a response statement from Comptroller Tom DiNapoli:

Two weeks ago, I reported that the state budget had once again fallen out of balance due to overly optimistic revenue projections and higher than expected Medicaid spending.  Today’s Mid-Year Update to the state’s Financial Plan underscores that report. The painfully slow economic recovery has not helped.

Last year was a fiscal train wreck.  And now, half way through the state fiscal year, we’re in danger of heading down the same track.

Revenues are up slightly over last year, but the Financial Plan relies on stronger growth.  Medicaid spending continues to grow, and growth is faster than anticipated even two months ago.

The state must address these recurring problems with real reform that changes the way we prepare, negotiate and administer the state budget.  My budget reform proposal provides a plan for getting us out of this fiscal mess and keeping us out.

Here’s Budget’s release and the link :

New York State Division of the Budget Releases Mid-Year Financial Plan Update

The New York State Division of the Budget today announced, through the Mid-Year Financial Plan Update, that the continued sluggish economic recovery is driving higher-than anticipated spending in government entitlement programs while modestly depressing State revenue collections, putting New York State on course for an estimated deficit of $315 million in the current fiscal year. However, the Mid-Year Plan shows that New York’s economy and fiscal health has largely stabilized when compared to the volatility of the last two years, which saw mid-year budget deficits of $3.2 billion in 2009-2010 and $1.5 billion in 2008-2009. The current-year budget deficit would have been approximately $1 billion had the Governor not taken action and vetoed legislation that included spending that was not funded in the budget.

The Mid-Year Update observes that the national and State economies continue to perform below expectations on most major indicators, contributing to lower than expected tax collections and higher than expected Medicaid costs to date. For the entire 2010-11 fiscal year, the Mid-Year Update projects General Fund tax collections will come in $278 million lower than originally projected. Additionally, Medicaid spending is projected to increase more than originally projected this fiscal year in part because of a higher than anticipated caseload. The Mid-Year update also revises the Enacted Budget Plan’s 2010-11 projections upward for inflation, to 1.3 percent (from 1.1 percent), and downward for personal income growth, to 4 percent (from 4.3 percent).

“As I have during my entire tenure in office, I will do everything in my power to protect the fiscal integrity of New York, and I am determined to ensure that the State is on sound financial footing when I leave office at the end of December,” Governor Paterson said. “There are sure to be great days ahead for New York, but until our State and our nation emerge from this long and difficult downturn, we must make the difficult decisions to ensure economic recovery does not leave us behind.”

Governor Paterson intends to ask the Legislature to take actions necessary to close the 2010-11 deficit.

The State-financed portion of the budget is estimated to grow by just 0.3 percent in 2010-11; however, over the next four years, it is projected to grow faster than both personal income and inflation, absent measures to control spending. Based on current law, State Operating Funds spending is projected to increase, largely due to mandated spending, at 6.9 percent annually from 2010-11 through 2013-14, while State tax receipts are projected to grow at 4.3 percent annually. State Operating Funds include the General Fund and special revenue funds that collect various State taxes and State user fees.

As a result of these trends, the update projects larger future year General Fund budget deficits than initial estimates: $9 billion for 2011-12, up approximately $850 million from the $8.2 billion deficit forecast in the Enacted 2010-11 State Budget Plan; $14.6 billion in 2012-13 (an increase of $1.2 billion from the Enacted Budget forecast), and $17.2 billion in 2013-14 (an increase of $1.7 billion).

Much of the projected deficit for 2011-12 is attributable to two factors: the expiration of Federal stimulus funding for Medicaid and education, which is expected to result in approximately $5.4 billion in costs reverting to the State General Fund starting in 2011-12, and the scheduled expiration at the end of calendar 2011 of the temporary personal income tax increase that was enacted in 2009-10. That is expected to reduce collections of personal income taxes by more than $1 billion in 2011-12 compared with 2010-11.

A link to the full report is available at the following link:

http://publications.budget.state.ny.us/budgetFP/1011midyear/2010-11_MidYearUpdate.pdf

Expenditures

In addition to the Medicaid caseload increase, the Federal government is increasing its share of rebates from drug manufacturers, driving additional State costs for the program. Rising costs of provider health care services (particularly in long term care), medical care cost inflation that affects nearly all categories of service, such as hospitals and nursing homes, and higher levels of utilization, as well as the expiration of the temporarily enhanced levels of Federal aid, also will drive additional State Medicaid expenditures.

Through September 30, 2010, spending on Medicaid, the government health care program for the poor, exceeded original estimates by more than $110 million, largely due to high unemployment. The trend has continued into October 2010. For the entire 2010-11 fiscal year, which runs from April 1, 2010 through March 31, 2011, the Mid-Year Update projects the State’s portion of Medicaid spending will increase by $368 million.

Projections for the public assistance caseload over the multi-year plan have been increased significantly compared to the Enacted Budget Plan forecast, based on the latest economic forecast and updated program data. Increased spending on Medicaid and public assistance – both entitlement programs – is partially offset by lower-than-expected spending in child welfare services and labor settlements, while some resources have materialized since the 2010-11 State Budget was enacted.

Across-the-board State agency operating costs are now projected to be $150 million higher than originally estimated for 2010-11 because the State is unable to realize a longer fiscal benefit of cost-reducing measures within the current fiscal year. However, as the State realizes the full annual benefit of these measures, State operations savings are now expected to exceed anticipated savings levels for 2011-12 by an equal amount.

School aid costs are expected to increase above projections beginning in 2011-12, based on additional claims filed since May 2010, updated wealth and demographic information reported by school districts and a full-scale recalibration of demographic and enrollment factors within the Foundation Aid formula.

Tuition Assistance Program (TAP) grants are expected to increase beyond original projections, the result of current economic conditions and in particular high unemployment rates driving increased student enrollment in State and City University of New York community colleges and other institutions of higher education.

Expenses of the Community Projects Fund may be lower than projected in 2010-11 as a result of Governor Paterson’s vetoes of member-item reappropriations.

Mental Health costs are projected to increase over the multi-year forecast period to reflect a revision to the statutorily-based 2011-12 human services COLA based on a 1.2 percent cost of living adjustment, higher fringe benefit rates, additional costs related to court-ordered funding for supported housing beds and support services, revised estimates for funding of the Sex Offender Management and Treatment Act of 2007 (SOMTA, or the civil confinement law) and the projected phase-in of required beds and services.

Although the current round of collective bargaining agreements with public employee labor unions expires at the end of 2010-11, the Financial Plan does not include any costs for potential wage increases beyond that point.

The Mid-Year Update estimates approximately $200 million in health care savings beginning in 2013-14 expected from the implementation of national health care reform.

Adjusted State Operating Funds spending is projected to total $79.2 billion in 2010-11, a 0.3 percent increase over 2009-10 results and about $200 million higher than originally forecast. All Funds spending, also adjusted for a one-time delay of $2.1 billion in school aid from 2009-10 into 2010-11, is projected to total $135.3 billion for the current year, a 6.6 percent increase over last year and about $1.5 billion higher than initially projected.

Revenues

Through September 30, 2010, General Fund tax receipts came in about $510 million below levels budgeted in the Financial Plan, while litigation has delayed and is expected to reduce originally-projected amounts of tax collections for cigarettes sold on Native American reservations to non-Indians.

For the full 2010-11 fiscal year, projections of personal income tax receipts have been revised downward by approximately $300 million, reflecting weakness in quarterly estimated payments. Receipts from user taxes have also been projected lower in the current year based on consumer spending data and actual collections, but such collections are expected to rebound in 2011-12. Receipts from statewide lottery games continue to fall below expectations as a result of the economic downturn.

Projected receipts from business taxes and other taxes have been increased modestly for both 2010-11 and 2011-12, reflecting unanticipated strength in estimated payments from banks and the performance of the real estate sector. The State is also witnessing higher than originally projected receipts from legal recoveries and surplus workers’ compensation funds, as well as a one-time benefit of $43 million from the termination of its existing synthetic variable-rate swaps in September 2010.

For the entire 2010-11 fiscal year, the Mid-Year Update projects General Fund tax collections will come in $278 million lower than originally projected.

###

Permalink: http://readme.readmedia.com/New-York-State-Division-of-the-Budget-Releases-Mid-Year-Financial-Plan-Update/1765284

Casey, Rick, I and the rest of the TU staff will be Tweeting throughout the day with the latest updates…are you following us?

– Follow @TUCapCon

– Follow @TULocalPolitics

In addition to the latest updated, we’ll be relying on you to help us spread up-to-the-minute information. Delayed at a poll? Tweet at us. Or use our uber-hashtag, #nys2010.

We’ll be posting results on our Elections page, which you can see here.

NEW YORK — So it all comes down to turnout, right? Well as the campaigns work furiously to get out their voters, here are some of the things I’ll be watching for, which will make the difference in this election.

Senate sleepers. You know the marquee state Senate races — Ball v. Kaplowitz, Foley v. Zeldin, Quinn v. Kennedy, Aubertine v. Ritchie, Valesky v. Russo — but both the Republicans and Democrats point to candidates who are surging late against incumbents who were not thought to face tough battles. For Republicans, it’s Bob Cohen against Sen. Suzi Oppenheimer and Bob Domenici against Sen. Neil Breslin. At the same time, Democrats are hopeful about Tony Avella’s chances for an upset of Sen. Frank Padavan, and Mary Wilmot to pull off an unexpected ouster of Sen. Jim Alesi. It’s a crazy year, so I wouldn’t be surprised if one of those four actually came to fruition. And if it does, well folks, remember where you read it first.

Cuomo’s outer-borough vote. I’ve reported a lot on Cuomo’s tensions with organized labor and elected officials of color, driving toward the point that Cuomo hasn’t done much to make the groups excited to vote for him. He undid part of that with a blitz this weekend through the Bronx and the release of his urban agenda, but I’m very interested to see whether precincts that had record turnout in 2008 for Barack Obama will come close this time around, and how that will affect Cuomo’s overall margin.

I’ve bet a few beers with various people in politics that Cuomo’s win will be on the low end of things — Democrats close to Cuomo talk about winning with 60 percent of the vote, give or take a point — but I think it will be more on the 55 point side of things. Again, that’s just me. We’ll see.

The spoilers. The latest Siena poll showed that Doug Hoffman is still drawing 10 percent in the 23rd congressional district, despite having ended his bid and publicly declaring on multiple occasions that he is not running. If he draws a few thousand votes that would likely have gone to Republican Matt Doheny, that could be enough to allow Rep. Bill Owens to win what had been a district with more enrolled Republicans than Democrats. Remember that Owens narrowly won last year with Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava, a Republican, exiting the race to back him at the last minute.

Similarly, in Erie County, Sen. Bill Stachowski remains on the Independence and Working Families party lines, even after losing a Democratic primary to Tim Kennedy. Stachowski, unlike Hoffman, has not been out in the district telling people not to vote for him. He hasn’t been campaigning either, but it will be interesting to see what effect his presence may have in a district where the Republicans have a good shot in Assemblyman Jack Quinn of making a pick-up.

Upstate America for Wilson. Harry Wilson isn’t in a position to fight the standard suburban battle with Comptroller Tom DiNapoli, in part because each have a home base in the two largest suburban areas: Wilson in Westchester County, where he lives, and DiNapoli on Long Island. But I think Wilson has made his upstate roots (born in Johnstown) enough of his narrative — and spent a good deal of time campaigning there — that it will help him win the day. Racking up endorsements from many of the newspapers will help; most of Upstate America is one-paper media markets, so the hometown paper’s word means more than a multi-newspaper market like New York City. The question is, by how much: DiNapoli has strong labor support and is focusing his final sprint in New York City. He’ll need to run up a big tally there, so it will come down to that plurality versus whatever gains Wilson can rack upstate.

Suburbs for Donovan. Dan Donovan has a similar challenge, except Sen. Eric Schneiderman has been much more aggressive campaigning upstate, and has been there since the summer. (Recall: Schneiderman won a five-way Democratic primary.) So while Donovan had a good opportunity to run up the score, he hasn’t. (I asked him about this yesterday, and he disputed that he hasn’t devoted enough attention upstate.) Instead, he’ll have to fight Schneiderman for the suburban vote, where the last Siena Poll had him leading by 20 points. That’s a little on the high side, I would say, but if Donovan is able to beat Schneiderman decisively in the suburbs — and run up the points on Staten Island — then he has a good shot at winning.

Third-party protests. If you consider the system a farce, the campaign bogus, our government a joke, then give it the leader it deserves: Jimmy McMillan. I can think of no better embodiment of a protest vote than him. And more seriously: the other third-party candidates like Warren Redlich, Howie Hawkins, Charles Barron (and, to a lesser extent, Kristin Davis) are offering less mainstream positions that still have a significant following. It will be interesting to see if Redlich can siphon votes from Paladino from conservatives uncomfortable with some of Carl’s less-savory aspects. And it will be further interesting to see how much support Barron can draw from Cuomo in his Central Brooklyn base and beyond.

I think that the wholesale voter frustration we’ve seen could manifest in a LOT of third-party votes. I wouldn’t be surprised to see it around five percent.

NOW….the best part about this blog post is that we’ll all know whether I was close, off by a mile or dead on soon enough. So take it for what it’s worth and happy hunting.

AND GO VOTE!

Here’s our “New York Now”-produced instructional video on how to operate the new optical-scan voting systems.

Why didn’t Tom DiNapoli think of this? Rent Is Too Damn etc. gubernatorial candidate follows his debut as an internet pitchman with this music video. The plot: McMillan is sitting at home reading a book when he’s suddenly evicted … by himself! Is this man vs. man or man vs. self, or both?

It’s unclear how the release of a music video on Election Day will affect turnout; this is the first election-day hip-hop video release by a gubernatorial candidate since Pierre Rinfret’s  “Yo Mario” in 1990.

NEW YORK — That’s what Assemblyman Danny O’Donnell, D-Morningside Heights, wondered when he found a robocall from Carl Paladino on his home answering machine.

O’Donnell is an elected Democrat, and has been enrolled in the party for decades. He’s a triple prime voter. He lives in one of the most solidly Democratic precincts in the state, and he resides in an apartment co-owned by two men.

Liz B. reports some other NYC progressives have gotten the same robo.

“Who would target my household?” O’Donnell asked. “It seems absurd to me. I don’t ever recall a Republican calling into my district, let alone a lunatic like him.”

UPDATE:  A Republican operative said that the Paladino camp has cast a broad net as a reflection of the bi-partisan support its received.

NEW YORK — Republicans have obtained a court order impounding all absentee ballots, in case any of the elections end up too close to call.

This is somewhat routine, and the order, issued by Joseph Teresi from State Supreme Court in Albany, essentially says that absentee ballots are to be held at county boards of elections until Monday. If these ballots need to be opened, it will proceed on a bi-partisan basis.

Dan Donovan’s attorney general campaign petitioned for the order. According to spokeswoman Virginia Lam, it was done “with consent of both parties to ensure every vote is counted.”

I’ll take this as a harbinger of some close races. I’m hoping we don’t get a month-long recount like we did in the Murphy-Tedisco race of 2009.

Here’s the memo the state Board of Elections issued to the county boards yesterday.

Impound Summary

I asked this question on Twitter (where you should be following us @TUCapCon for up-to-the-minute reports) and will pose it here: how’s voting going?

I’ve heard some scattered reports of problems in Albany County, but they were few, far between, and apparently fixed by 7 a.m. People are closely watching New York City’s balloting, after problems experienced in the primary races in September.

But share your stories here. High turnout? Low turnout? People voting in Jimmy McMillan costumes? We want to know.

Good morning! Go vote! Read these headlines if you must, but then go vote!

Today’s the day, don’t forget, go to the polls, there are no sure bets. (NYT/TU/WSJ)

USE OUR VOTERS GUIDE to help you learn more about the candidates and their positions. (TU)

It all comes down to turnout, of course. (GNS)

Bill Clinton visited Saratoga Springs on Monday. (Saratogian)

The budget gap may turn out to be $9 billion. (TU)

What if it’s a 31-31 Senate? (TU)

Carl Paldino invokes his son in a last-minute voting plea. (DN)

Cuomo had one last rally in Queens amid a final preelection swing. (DN/NYP)

George Pataki backed Carl Paladino in the final hours of the campaign. (BN)

Harry Wilson and Dan Donovan tried for a last-minute boost. (NYP)

New York City officials will be watching closely for voting irregularities. (WSJ)

Some fun what-ifs. (NT2)

As Bill Thompson stumps for Cuomo, he eyes 2013. (WSJ)

Truckers protested the closing of rest stops. (TU)

Jimmy McMillan got a job. (NYP)

Chris Sealey left his job. (SOP)

Political horoscopes. (DN)

Kiryas Joel will back Nan Hayworth for Congress. (NYO)

An interesting collection of impressions from political consultants. (GQ)

Nine businesses got booted off the boardwalk at Coney Island. (NYT)

And here are some national headlines…

This is really a referendum on Barack Obama. (NYP)

Republicans are confident they will re-take the House of Representatives. (WP)

Nate Silver says Republicans are underdogs in flipping the federal Senate. (NYT)

Sarah Palin denied that the GOP is having second thoughts about a presidential bid by her. (DN)

A federal judge has re-imposed the “don’t ask, don’t tell” policy. (NYP)

And below, Paladino’s closing plea to voters:

//

(Rick Karlin/Times Union)

This happens every two years: the underground parking lot typically used by Senate and Assembly staffers becomes eerily empty in the weeks and days before an election.

This shot, taken earlier on Monday, was typical. The staffers, using their hard-earned comp time born of late night budget sessions, are out in their boss’s districts, hitting the streets with Get Out the Vote efforts.

Courtesy Kyle Hughes of NYSNYS, here’s video of Bill Clinton from this morning’s rally.

In an rousing speech at the Albany Labor Temple, Democratic gubernatorial candidate Andrew Cuomo stood with U.S. Rep. Paul Tonko, AG candidate Eric Schneiderman and Mayor Jerry Jennings and made one thing perfectly clear: His administration won’t be using “Albany” as political shorthand for “dysfunctional state government.”

Here’s an excerpt from his speech, offered at some length because it gives a sense of why he’s ahead in the polls, and also because as Albany resident we also hate it when people use “Albany” that way:

Jerry talks about, “I’m tired of people degrading Albany.” You see all of these ads that are on TV now all about “Albany,” meaning the state government in Albany. They’ve been saying it so often that they now use short form: “Albany must change,” “Change Albany. ”

It bothers Jerry, as the mayor of Albany — ’cause you know Jerry takes everything personally. He think this is all about him! I keep saying, “Sometimes it’s not about you, Jerry, it’s about the state government.” He says, “Well, why don’t they say that, ‘the state government’? They just say ‘Albany.’” … Does anybody think it’s Jerry? [Big "noooo."]

So all the ads are “Change Albany,” “Albany is bad.” With a picture of the state Capitol. … And I tell you that breaks my heart. It really does break my heart. And it is so untrue. Because in truth Albany, the state government in Albany, Albany the state Capitol of the great state of New York — this is not a thing of degradation. The picture of that Capitol is not an icon of waste and fraud. The picture of that Capitol is a picture of dedication to public service, a picture of a commitment to making this state the greatest state.

Just look at that Capitol. You want a clearer statement of a belief of a people in each other? A clearer statement of a community that stood up and said, “We believe in us and we believe in the future of us. And we’re going to build a monument to us and our potential and our capacity.” 1865, they set out to build the greatest building in the country, and they were going to make it a monument, and they were going to spend more money than you could imagine. Goes on ’til 1899 when Gov. Theodore Roosevelt officially opens the Capitol, with its artwork and stonework and granite. And they wanted to make that kind of contribution, and they wanted it that grand, because they believed in themselves and they believed in the institution called government. And they were proud of it.

… That’s what Albany means. I came up — I was a kid with Eric, we started in the campaign watching my father. I was 22, 23 years old — but I saw my father and I saw the people in the Legislature, Democrats and Republicans, and I said, “This is what I want to do with my life. … They’re people of honor and people of integrity and people of commitment, and they’re debating real issues that make a difference to me and my family, and this is what I want to do, this is what I want to be. What a beautiful way to spend your life, in public service, and maybe someday I’d have the honor of serving the people of the state as an elected official.”

My god! What a great honor — to be elected by the people to represent the people, to walk into that Capitol, a piece of history, one of the most beautiful buildings in the nation, built by our forefathers, in this beautiful city called Albany, in a beautiful state called New York that did things no one else could do, that no one believed possible. And New Yorkers did it and they built this state and they built this nation, and they passed Albany en route. That’s what Albany is, that’s what Albany means. That’s what the New York state government is: It’s not a sign of degradation and corruttion and waste. It’s the greatest state government in the United States of America.

… It is not this thing that you’ve seen over the past few years. It’s an icon of competence and performance and integrity. What they did in that building, all the other states followed.

Still, there might be a little tweaking of Albany, or at least of Jennings — ribbed by Cuomo’s running mate, Rochester Mayor Bob Duffy, as reminding him of a blend of Bill Clinton and Rodney Dangerfield.

“That’s a killer, that line — that’s going to stick with you, too,” said Cuomo, before heaping praise on Jennings as a good man and and a good friend “who has always been there for me.”

Update: Courtesy Kyle Hughes of NYSNYS, here’s video of the full speech:

NEW YORK — The intrepid and wonderful Kris Turner has spent several hours these past few days going through campaign filings and came up with some great results for the race between Rep. Scott Murphy and Chris Gibson.

The NRCC has spent just shy of $1 million running attack ads and mailers against Murphy. Two other groups, including the PAC behind the Tea Party Express, has poured in an additional $330,000 attacking Murphy. Also, the 60 Plus group has spent over $500,000 attacking Murphy.

Murphy has been helped along by a major ally from this special election win: SEIU 1199. The health care workers union outspent the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee once again. SEIU 1199 were also major advocates of the health care reform bill that Murphy backed. They’ve spent $942,813 supporting Murphy.

So overall, PACS have spent $1.485 million on Murphy’s behalf, and $1.833 million attacking him.

Below, the fruits of Kris’ research.

Scott Murphy

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Independent Expenditure Against a Candidate

National Republican Congressional Committee – $998,703
National Republican Trust Pac – $210,499
Our Country Deserves Better/Tea Party Express.org – $120,126

60 Plus — $504,486

Total: $1,833,814

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Independent Expenditure On Behalf Of the Candidate

1199 Service Employees Int’l Union Federal Political Action Fund – $942,813

Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees – $82,008

Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee – $296,425

DNC SERVICES CORPORATION/DEMOCRATIC NATIONAL COMMITTEE – $10,000

NARAL Pro-Choice America – $4,819

New York State Committee of Working Families Party – $50,196

Planned Parenthood Advocates of NY – $6,338

Service Employees International Union Committee on Political Education – $76,542

Sierra Club Political Committee – $10

Voice of Teachers for EDUC/CMTE on Pol. Educ. of N.Y. State UNTD. Teachers (VOTE/COPE) of NYSUT – $16,694

Total: $1,485,845

NEW YORK — Gov. George E. Pataki, the last Republican to govern New York who got a scathing appraisal from the GOP’s current standard bearer, has endorsed Carl Paladino for governor.

Here’s Pataki’s statement:

“One-party rule has led New York State to the brink of ruin.  The ethical and fiscal morass that Democratic control has wrought upon our state government can only end if we reestablish a vigorous two-party system.  The best way to achieve this is through competitive statewide candidates.

While I don’t agree with my party’s nominee for Governor on any number of issues, we do agree on three essential Republican – Conservative core beliefs: the need to cut taxes, reduce spending and shrink the size of government. It is with these bedrock beliefs in mind that today I endorse Carl Paladino for Governor.”

One of the unexpected stars in this year’s campaign, at least among Democrats, has been US Rep and former Assemblyman Paul Tonko, who has been getting high marks for his lively and inspiring speeches as of late.

That’s notable since Tonko, who is trained as an engineer, was known as something of a tech-talker, in the Assembly, who when asked about a given topic would go on at length, armed with facts and statistics. That may be good in the engineering world but not so much in the rough and tumble arena of politics.

I recall, for instance, when he was in the Democratic primary for Congress two years ago, the candidates were asked for their thoughts on a then-proposed high voltage power line from Western New York to New York City. Some of the candidates bashed “the city” while others questioned the need for more power usage. Tonko launched into a fairly detailed explanation of what these high voltage lines do.

This year, however, he’s hitting some more emotional, gut level notes and people seem to notice.

“He’s probably the best speaker of this campaign,” Assemblyman Jack McEneny said after watching Tonko appear with former President Clinton this morning at a rally for Scott Murphy and other Democrats.

New York may not have any chads to hang but it may have multiple bubble problems.  Here’s Matt Damon, for the Working Families Party, explaining how people who want to support the WFP should fill in just one bubble per candidate, rather than multiple bubbles. Thanks to a new voting rule, multiple bubbles go to the major party by default. For Dems, that means a WFP voters who filled in the Cuomo bubble on the WFP and Demcratic line  would throw his or her votes to the Dems. And a Paladino voter who fills in the Republican and Conservative bubbles, gives the vote to the GOP.