People involved in public affairs tend to see every major event as proof that their previously held theories are correct.

For instance, after the indictment of Malcolm Smith, Mayor Bloomberg said that partisan elections were a reason for the alleged crimes.

And the New York Post has, in at least 4 stories or columns put forth the theory that Malcolm’s goal was not to become Mayor but to steal money from the NYC Campaign Finance System.

I don’t buy that for a couple reasons.

WHY RUN AS A REPUBLICAN?

If Smith only goal was to rip off the funds provided by the CFB, why did he want to run as a Republican. This is the reason he needed the Wilson-Pakula authorization and the only reason he had to care about Vince Tabone & Jay Savino and the only reason he would have to want to bribe them. Running in the Democratic Primary or even saying he wanted to run as an independent candidate (not a candidate of the Independence Party but a true small I independent) would have avoided the hassles.

WHAT WAS HE WAITING FOR?

Despite the impression conveyed by the Post and other opponents of public funding of campaigns, the CFB doesn’t just hand people money. Mayoral candidates have to form a campaign committee and receive contributions of $250,000 from at least 1,000 New York City residents. That takes times. Joe Lhota started in January and with the assistance of former Mayor Giuliani, alumni of the Giuliani Administration & with a professional fundraising wife helping him, his campaign raised $729,987 by March 15^th. Of this, only $58,688 is potentially matchable.

If Malcolm’s plan was simply to raise as much matchable funds as possible, when was he planning to start doing it? He hasn’t even formed a campaign committee!

And, even if for some reason I can’t fathom, running as a Republican was a necessary part of a scheme to get the money from the CFB, waiting for the Wilson-Pakula authorization isn’t required. Adolfo Carrion has formed a committee and raised money without getting permission to run as Republican and before getting endorsed by the Independence Party.

Now I can’t be sure I’m correct, because despite the fact that I’ve known  Malcolm since we both worked in the Koch Administration, I’m not going to lie like the Post’ “sources” and pretend I know what he was thinking. But the CFB angle just doesn’t make much sense.

An important change in City elections kicks in this year and very few people seem to know about it.

Because of changes in the City Charter, that override the State Election law in local elections, the signature requirements to get on the ballot have been lowered drastically.

To get on the Democratic & Republican Primary ballots, citywide candidates now will need 3.750 signatures rather than 7,500, Borough President Candidates number has dropped from 4,000 to 2,000.

City Council numbers are now 450 instead of 900 for either Primary designating petitions or independent candidates.

Expect to see more races with large fields and more candidates winning Primaries with less the 1/3 of the vote.

FYI – in 2009, there were 14 Democratic Primaries where there were 5 or more candidates (including Public Advocate and 6 where the winner received less than 35% of the vote.

Some of you may remember that in 2007, I postulated a theory of the two electorates - a small group of well informed voters and a massive group that could care less about politics. And I suggested that cable TV & the web were largely responsible for this

http://www.r8ny.com/blog/jerry_skurnik/the_theory_of_the_two_electorates.html

This week's Economist has a story that, whicle focusing on cable news, makes many of the same points.

Here it is -

http://www.economist.com/blogs/lexington/2013/03/media-and-political-polarisation?fsrc=scn/tw/te/bl/whyfoxnewsislesstoblame

This list is subject to change as candidates will withdraw or be removed from the ballot after petitions are reviewed.

There are also probably typos & omissions on the list I received.

I’m including some information about candidates where I know something & I’m not including Judicial Delegate & Alternate contests. Even I don’t care much about them. 

Manhattan

Democrats

State Senate

27^th SD

District Leader Brad Hoylman, business owner Thomas Greco & former NAACP official Tanika Inlaw are candidates to replace Tom Duane.

29^th SD (part in Bronx)

Senator Jose Serrano is opposed by Matthew Chapman, Hector Feliciano & Joseph Martinez

31^st SD

As you might have read, Senator Adriano Espaillat is running for re-election opposed by Assemblyman Guillermo Linares.

Assembly

72^nd AD

Attempting to replace Assemblyman Linares are – his daughter, former Leader Mayra Linares, Assembly aide Gabriela Rosa, former candidate Ruben Vargas & Melanie Hidalgo.

Surrogate

Civil Court Judge Rita Mella & Acting Supreme Court Justice Barbara Jaffe (full disclosure – I’m advising her campaign) are running to succeed Kristin Booth Glen.

Civil Court Judge

3^rd JD

Court Attorney Olga Statz & lawyer Lisa Sokoloff are opposing each other.

State Committee

67th AD

Incumbent Arthur Greig is being challenged by former club President Vincent Alfonso.

72^nd AD

Councilman Ydanis Rodriguez is running, opposed by Hector Vasquez.

Micaela Lugo is opposed by Yudelka Valdez

Independence Party

As part of the continuing contest between the supporters of Lenora Fulani & those of Frank McKay, there are few contests in the City for State Committee

29^th SD (part is in Bronx)

Edward Brady vs. Christopher Giattino vs. William Danzy

Cathy Stewart vs. Tara Lewis

Bronx

Democrats

State Senate

32nd SD

Senator Ruben Diaz is opposed by attorney Kafahni Nkrumah

33^rd SD

Senator Gustavo Rivera is challenged by sports agent Manuel Tavarez

Assembly

77th AD

Assemblywoman Vanessa Gibson is opposed by former candidate Anthony Curry & Edwin Figueroa

78^th AD

Assemblyman Jose Rivera faces State Committee member Ricardo Martinez.

80^th AD

Assemblywoman Naomi Rivera has 3 opponents – businessman Mark Gjonaj. Former candidate Irene Estrada-Rukaj & former reporter Adam Bermudez.

82^nd AD

Assemblyman Mike Benedetto is opposed by former candidate Egidio Sementilli.

84^th AD

Assemblywoman Carmen Arroyo has 2 opponents - former candidate Charles Serrano & retired postal worker Maximino Rivera.

86^th AD

Assemblyman Nelson Castro is opposed by former candidate Richard Soto.

87^th AD

There are 2 candidates to replace former Assemblyman Peter Rivers – attorney (and former Rivera Primary opponent) Luis Sepulveda & Assembly staffer Daniel Figueroa.

Surrogate

Acting Supreme Court Justice Nelida Malave-Gonzalez and attorney Winston Rouse are running to succeed Lee Holtzman

Civil Court

1^st JD

Civil Judge Fernando Tapia is opposed by attorney Miguel Santiago.

2^nd JD

There are 3 candidates - Court Attorney Eddie McShan vs. Court Attorney Juana Valentin vs. attorney Victor Rivera

State Committee

77^th AD

3 candidates are running for Male & 3 for Female– Gregory Delts vs. Ahmad Khan vs. Apolnar Montilla for Male. Evelyn Rivera vs. Marion Kautz vs. Stephanie Gibbs for Female.

78^th AD

Councilman Joel Rivera is running with 2 opponents - Abraham Silverio & Simon Perez

Jasmin Clavasquin is opposing Maria Gonzalez for Female slot

79^th AD

Incumbent Wilford Pinkney is opposed by Richard Hoffman & Antanette Rivera is opposed by Celina Stewart.

80^th AD

Incumbent Diane Cerino is opposed by Maria Gonzalez (a different address than the one in 78 AD)

82^nd AD

Incumbent George Crouch is challenged by Andrew Peteralia running for 1 spot & Nalta Semaj & Elvira Pirraglia are running for other.

84^th AD

Carlos Quintana & Jason Brotter are running

86^th AD

Nereida Medina & Bernice Williams are running

87^th AD

William Rivera & Ronald Savage are running for 1 slot & Incumbent Barbara Brown & Ramona Lewis are running for other slot.

District Leader

77^th AD

Incumbent Mark Escoffery-Bey is challenged by Benny Catala.

Assemblywoman Vanessa Gibson has 2 opponents – Yolanda Garcia & Alberta Daniels.

78^th AD

Assemblyman Jose Rivera faces Ricardo Martinez for District Leader as well as Assembly.

Incumbent Nilda Velasquez is opposed by Nancy Deleon.

79^th AD

There are 4 candidates for Male Leader & 4 for Female.

Because of redistricting there are 2 incumbents Israel Martinez & Wilbert Lawton plus former candidate Sigfredo Gonzalez & Wayne Brown for Male Leader.

Incumbent Cynthia Cox vs. Josephine Martinez vs. Gail Gadsen vs. Gwendolyn Primus

80^th AD

Incumbent Miriam Schwartz is challenged by Erica Bukowiecki.

82^nd AD, part B

Incumbent Frank Randazzo is opposed by Assembly candidate Egidio Sementilli.

Incumbent Fran Mahoney has 2 opponents – Lucia Giraldi & Clara Marrero.

84^th AD

There are 3 candidates for Male Leader – former Council candidate Carlos Sierra, Freddy Perez & Daniel Valentine & 3 for Female – Councilwoman Maria Del Carmen Arroyo, Juana Pena & Iris Fernandez.

86^th AD

Steve Santano is opposed by Simon Gutierrez.

Incumbent Yudelka Tapia has 2 challengers – Raisa Marcial & Gloria McFarland.

87^th AD

Incumbent Julia Rodriguez is opposed by Felicia Guiamara.

Brooklyn

Democrats

State Senate

17^th SD

As blog readers know, former Councilman Simcha Felder & Abraham Tischler are running in the “Super Jewish” district.

18^th SD

Senator Martin Dilan is opposed by attorney Jason Otano.

19^th SD

John Sampson is being challenged by former candidate Elias Weir,

20^th SD

Eric Adams is being challenged by former candidate Guillermo Philpotts.

Assembly

42^nd AD

Assemblywoman Rhoda Jacobs has 2 opponents – District Leader Rodneyse Bichotte & former candidate Zacary Lareche.

45^th AD

Assemblyman Steve Cymbrowitz is challenged by Ben Akselrod.

48^th AD

Assemblyman Dov Hikind is being challenged by Michael Tischler (see 17 SD)

54^th AD

Assemblyman Rafael Espinal is opposed by Juan Rodriguez.

55^th AD

Assemblyman William Boyland Jr. has 8 opponents. This may be a record for an incumbent even if all don’t run.

The challengers are – Nathan Bradley, Anthony Jones, Christopher Durosinmi, Bilal Malik, Dion Turner, Roy Antoine, Anthony Herbert & David Miller.

57^th AD

There are 3 candidates running to replace Hakeem Jeffries – District Leads Olanike Alabai & Walter Mosley & schools activist Martine Guerrier.

58^th AD

Assemblyman Nick Perry is opposed by lawyer Terry Hinds.

60^th AD

Assemblywoman Inez Barron is opposed by Christopher Banks.

Civil Court

1^st JD

Court attorney Lara Genovesi & attorney Richard Montilione are opposing him

8^th JD

There are 3 lawyers running – Court Attorney Theresa Ciccotto vs. Charles Finklestein vs. Steven Mostofsky

State Committee

42^nd AD

5 candidates are running for Male spot – Josue Pierre, Edward Powell, Anthony Alexis, Herb Periera & Victor Jordan

2 candidates are opposing District Leader Rodneyse Bichotte – former Leader Mary Hobson & Irene Labissiere.

45^th AD

Incumbent Michael Geller is challenged by former Assembly candidate Ari Kagan

48^th AD

Assemblyman Dov Hikind is being challenged for State Committee by Michael Tischler (see Assembly)

50^th AD

Incumbent Lincoln Restler & challenger Catherine Zidar are opposing challenger  Christopher Olechowski& incumbent Linda Minucci.

52^nd AD

Incumbent Joanne Simon is opposed by Debra Scotto. Read Gatemouth for details.

53^rd AD

Incumbent Maritza Davilla is opposed by Gladys Santiago.

54^th AD

Councilman Erik Dilan in being challenged by Cyril Joseph & Paula Melendez is opposed by Darma Diaz.

55^th AD

Assemblyman William Boyland Jr. has 6 opponents for Leader. Some are also running for Assembly.

The challengers are – Wesley Hope, Bilal Malik, Daniel Goodine, Leonard Hatter Anthony Herbert & David Miller IV.

Councilwoman Darlene Mealy has 2 opponents – Maryam Samad & Jasmine Ruffin.

56 AD

Former Council candidate Robert Cornegy is opposed by Congressional staffer Al Wiltshire.

57^th AD

There are 3 candidates for Female position – Fayce Moore, Renee Collymore & Wendy Washington.

58^th AD

Incumbent Weyman Carey is opposed by Cory Provost & incumbent Melba Brown is opposed by Pamela Garcia.

60^th AD

Councilman Charles Barron & Kenny McLemore are challenging incumbent Earl Williams.

Assemblywoman Inez Barron is running against former Assemblywoman Diane Gordon & Nikki Lucas.

Republicans

Assembly

46^th AD

Former candidate Lucretia Regina-Potter is opposed by Thomas McCarthy.

Independence Party

State Committee

22^nd SD

Robert Conroy vs. Stephen McCarthy.

Yvonne Murray vs. Shameka Carter.

Queens

State Senate

10^th SD

Senator Shirley Huntley is opposed by Councilman James Sanders & former candidate Gian Jones.

16^th SD

Senator Toby Stavisky is opposed by former candidate John Messer.

Assembly

25^th AD

Former Council candidate Jerry Iannece is opposing Assembly aide Nily Rogic to succeed Rory Lancman.

32^nd AD

Assemblywoman Vivian Cook is challenged by former candidate Rachel Gordon.

33^rd AD

Assemblywoman Barbara Clark is challenged by former candidate Clyde Vanel.

38^th AD

Assemblyman Michael Miller is opposed by Etienne Adorno.

40^th AD

6 candidates are running to succeed Grace Meng. They are former Leaders Martha Flores-Vazquez & Ethel Chen, former Council candidate Yen Chou, former Paterson aide Ron Kim & businessmen John Scandalios & Myunsuk Lee.

State Committee

25^th AD

Yuan Tse Teddy Teng is opposed by Dilip Nath

29^th AD

There is a 3 way contest between Jerwaine Gorman, Edgar Grove & Nyjee Brannon & a 2-way one between Joan Flowers & Arleen Thelemaque.

40^th AD

Incumbent Donald Henton is opposed by Assembly candidate John Scandalios.

Republicans

Senate

15^th SD

Councilman Eric Ulrich is opposed by former Giuliani official Juan Reyes.

Assembly

25^th AD

William Garifai is running against Abraham Fuchs.

40^th AD

Philip Gim is opposing Sunny Hahn.

District Leader

25^th AD, Part A

Assemblyman & Leader Rory Lancman is opposed by Yuan Yee Kui & incumbent Una Sengupta is opposed by Stephanie Goldstone.

33^rd AD, part B

Incumbent Henry McCoy is opposed by Donnie Whitehead.

40^th AD, Part B

Incumbent Eun Chui Kim is opposed by former Leader Martha Flores-Vasquez.

Independence

Senate

15^th SD

Councilman Eric Ulrich is opposed by former Grace Meng challenger Joseph Tiraco.

State Committee

15^th SD

Rafael Gonzalez vs. Joseph Tiraco

Maryellen Michel vs. Deborah Davis.

Staten Island

Independence

Assembly

61^st AD

Assemblyman Matt Titone is being opposed by Republican candidate Paul Saryian.

While it’s a little late, as we have had a Statewide Primary election to digest since then, I thought it would be interesting to compare the Special Election voters to all voters in the (soon to disappear) 27^th Senate District.

Party breakdown

All voters                                                                     

Democrats        58%    

Republicans      18%    

Special voters

Democrats        64%

Republicans      34%

Well that certainly surprised me.

I would have guessed that a depressed Democratic turnout was one reason for Fidler’s loss. But it turns out that it was those not enrolled in a Party who didn’t vote. In retrospect, this is not surprising to those of us who think that “independent” voters are not the thoughtful moderates that pundits like to write about but are actually uniformed and uninterested.

It is true that registered Republicans were the most motivated but Storobin wouldn’t have won without getting a big chunk of the Democrats.

The Jewish vote

All voters                                             

Likely Jewish    38%    

Special voters

Likely Jewish    52%

I’ll give my obligatory disclaimer that ethnic counts are based on surnames and are not 100% accurate and say that the real Jewish percentages are undeniably higher. However the significant thing to consider is if the percentage of the various ethnic groups voting went up or down.

The above Jewish count does not separate Russians, Orthodox & secular Jews.

But what about Russians?

These numbers are even more problematic than the overall Jewish numbers. Storobin’s name would not appear in a Russian dictionary, while my name would appear. But as you see, the Russian percentage of Special Election voters was significantly higher than their percentage of the overall electorate.

All voters                          

Probable Russians 11%   

Special voters

Probable Russians 17%

So we know that Jews and specifically Russians voted in higher numbers, what about other ethnic groups?

All voters         

Asians              9%     

Hispanics          6%  

Italians              7%      

Blacks              5%      

Special voters

Asians               4%

Hispanics           2%

Italians              5%

Blacks              3%

As in the Bob Turner Special Election win, the low turnout numbers for Hispanics & Blacks are largely responsible for the Republican wins.

Let’s look at some other demographic information to see if there are any other major differences between the overall electorate & the Special voters.

The Female-Male split among all voters is 56-44, in the Special, it was 53-47. Not a major difference but in such a close election, it probably made a difference.

Here’s a major difference I found.

Voters age 65+ are 31% of the District. In the Special, they were 50%!

Conversely, voters under 35 are 21% of the SD but in the Special, they were only 7%.

I’ve only scratched the surface of these numbers and since the 27^th Senate District in Brooklyn will cease to exist, I’m not sure how relevant they are but they might affect how future Special Elections in similiar communities are contested.