The Science Behind MoveOn's "Nonvoter" campaign

MoveOn's latest user-driven campaign borrows its activating theme from academic research of voter mobilization methods that has received less attention than it deserves. MoveOn's groundbreaking "Make Sure All Your Friends Vote" viral video tool uses social peer pressure to encourage friends to vote. A study of a controlled experiment, published in the February 2008 issue of American Political Science Review, found social pressure to be the single most effective way of increasing voter turnout by mass communication.

If you haven't already had one of these customized MoveOn videos forwarded to you, you can see one here, created by Ben Smith. Basically, you submit a friend's name to a simple web-based tool - and MoveOn plugs that name into a fake news report about the effect your friend's failure to vote had on this November's election. The video is sent by email to your friendSince MoveOn supports Barack Obama, the effect of course is that Obama lost because your friend stayed home.

Seems smart, right? This paper by Alan Gerber, Don Green and Christopher Larimer explains why this clever gimmick should work. Gerber et al. set up an experiment in an August 2006 primary in Michigan:

Prior to the August 2006 primary election in Michigan, approximately 80,000 households were sent one of four mailings encouraging them to vote.... One experimental group received a mailing that merely reminded them that voting is a civic duty; in a second group, they were told that researchers would be studying their turnout based on public records; a third treatment group received mailings displaying the record of turnout among those in the household; a fourth mailing revealed both the household’s voter turnout and their neighbors’ turnout. The latter two treatments suggested that a follow-up mailing after the election would report to the household or the neighborhood the subject’s turnout in the upcoming election.

...

Exposing a person’s voting record to his or her neighbors turns out to be an order of magnitude
more effective than conventional pieces of partisan or onpartisan direct mail. In fact, the turnout effect associated with this mailing is as strong as the effect of direct contact by door-to-door canvassers and by far the most cost-effective voter mobilization tactic studied to date. [emphasis added; citations omitted]

MoveOn is doing what these political scientists did - invoking the threat of public shame to expose an individual's non-voting. Of course, Eli & Co. are doing it in tongue-in-cheek style, doing it electronically (potentially lowering the cost), and -- importantly -- combining the message with the proven method of leveraging their members' own social networks.

That last innovation is what takes the MoveOn gimmick a step beyond what the political scientists did in Michigan. The experimental mailings -- although couched in "civic duty" language -- were addressed from "Practical Political Consulting." MoveOn's email comes from someone within the recipient/subject's social network (like the "Dear Neighbors"/"Friends and Neighbors" mailings that are a staple of well-run grassroots campaigns).

MoveOn's effort gets around some of the obvious concerns with applying the Gerber/Green/Larimer learning in a real-world environment. When I've considered with colleagues how one could use the social-pressure/shame themes to influence competitive elections, the worries have been that the "'shame" message (1) seems heavy-handed and (2) could damage the reputation of the sender by violating the quasi-privacy of the recipient's voting record. MoveOn is getting around these concerns by using humor and relying on individuals to lend their social capital to the effort.

The limitations of the "Make Sure All Your Friends Vote" efforts are twofold:

  • Scale: by relying on individuals to take action, the number of voters they can influence is naturally limited.
  • No public exposure: The most effective of the experimental maiings was the one which convincingly suggested to individual voters (a better word might be "threatened") that their voting behavior -- voting or staying home -- would be mailed to their neighbors after the election. The MoveOn effort trades convincing threat for humor.

Nonetheless, the MoveOn gang deserves significant kudos for their innovative work. And they have returned the favor of inspiration to Gerber/Green/Larimer by providing fruit for further research.



Submitted by Anonymous (not verified) on Sat, 10/25/2008 - 6:04pm.

Moveon's only agenda is to get Obama elected. Soros has certainly thrown enough money at taking a virtually unknown, inexperienced suit and positioning him to take Soros' own sick vision global.

 

 


M Burgos's picture
Submitted by M Burgos on Sun, 10/26/2008 - 10:05am.

Alex,

I am very familiar with the Gerber/Green/Larimer study and glad that MoveOn is using the findings creatively and effectively. This is a great post and you are right to throw roses their way. So kudos to you, too.

The reason I know about the study is because I've been using it as a guide to create a model that works on local levels, but not just with internet users. I want to use it for local elections, in areas that that have low turnout, not as tech-savvy a population, and a fair amount of apathy towards the election process.

What I've found interesting is that when I've run this idea by colleagues it's been like showing a wreath of garlic to a vampire. "Shame" is a harsh word to use, and most are concerned with the long term effects, sort of like beating someone with the same stick. A few weeks ago I came across the study and it was just what I needed and then some.

I'd be more interested in seeing local campaigns use this strategy not so much to shame people but to make them connect to a broader community.

It's smart for MoveOn to use this technique because it really connects people to the concept that voting is not just about the individual but also about the group doing something together.

Anyway, I'm hoping that MoveOn will publish the results of this effort and a measurement of this strategy's effectiveness.

Manny Burgos,
Brooklyn, New York
"Más vale morir luchando, que vivir muriendo."



Submitted by Kredyt Bank (not verified) on Tue, 05/12/2009 - 11:19pm.
My name is Kurt. I'm interested in similar subjects. I want to say thanks to the author. I'm owner of Kredyty & konta osobiste. Have a nice day
Submitted by patric (not verified) on Fri, 05/15/2009 - 2:30am.
I have found really nice information over here thanks for sharing this article with me. dissertation writing | coursework writing assignment
Submitted by mechanix22 on Wed, 06/10/2009 - 3:32am.

Strong point. Wonder how it would be legitimated in a proper way.

Fetal Dropper

 

 


Submitted by sikio (not verified) on Tue, 06/23/2009 - 3:19am.
I want to use it for local elections, in areas that that have low turnout, not as tech-savvy a population, and a fair amount of apathy towards the election process. Regards, accident at work claim
Submitted by jamel (not verified) on Thu, 06/25/2009 - 10:06am.

 

Political science students run Get out the Vote campaign & the non-partisan campaign run by the PSUA executive and several volunteers

Email marketing software & Top Travel Destinations


Submitted by sewguk (not verified) on Fri, 06/26/2009 - 5:19am.

As to hypothecary crisis here it is a lot of questions. How has occurred, what these credits could be given out in such volume? Why rating agencies appropriated to hypothecary papers the higher ratings of reliability? Why financiers could not estimate risks independently? Really it was not clear, that house purchase, even on credit, for poor citizens without state grants it is impossible. Perhaps, the authorities shut eyes to a problem, believing, that development subprime is capable not only to recover economy, but also to solve social problems, however miracles do not happen. The government can help the large banks having national value, and the others to make bankrupt or sell to foreign investors. Such way means active work from Federal corporation on insurance of deposits.

webtips


Submitted by Dentist Annapolis (not verified) on Tue, 07/07/2009 - 8:34pm.

Seems the viral means to get the vote out really worked for some, apparently, since the turnout was super high. Seems like people in Minnesota probably wish they'd gone to the polls to vote rather than stay home (on either side, I imagine neither wanted the Senate race as close as it was).
Cosmetic Dentist Annapolis


Submitted by Custom Term Paper (not verified) on Wed, 07/15/2009 - 3:48am.
The article was really and i was interested to be member in your community thanks for sharing
Submitted by Free Essays (not verified) on Mon, 08/17/2009 - 6:01am.
I believe the information covered in the discussion is top notch. I've been doing a research on the subject and your blog just cleared up a lot of questions. I am working on a essay writing and custom research papers for my English class and currently reading lots of blogs to study. college paper | custom essays
Submitted by porch awnings (not verified) on Thu, 09/17/2009 - 9:46am.
The strategy of peer pressure seems to be working out with encouraging results. With this, I hope the voter turnout would increase every elections. folding chairs | registry cleaners | closet organizers
Submitted by Only Technology News (not verified) on Sat, 09/19/2009 - 4:21am.

When I saw that Palin op-ed, I knew then I was finished with the WaPo. I thought opinion writers were required to have at best minimal credentials, background knowledge, or extensive experiences on national topics. Insulting to readers that they would promote her as an expert on anything.


Submitted by new gadgets (not verified) on Sat, 09/19/2009 - 4:35am.

I absolutely believe that op ed was written by Ramble Spice. It was incoherent. Neglected to mention the initial problem and attacked without offering a sensible solution. If fossil fuels are what got us to where we are right now and you don’t believe that global warming is man made, how in the world could more drilling and more coal possibly solve the problem that you refuse to acknowledge needs to be fixed? It’s like turning in an algebra test and not only getting the wrong answer but not even showing your work. The teacher can’t even begin to tell you where you went wrong because they have no clue how you arrived at your answer.


Submitted by Emanuelle (not verified) on Sun, 09/27/2009 - 7:33pm.
That was a great campaign, a bit out of the box.
Submitted by Konferens (not verified) on Tue, 09/29/2009 - 8:45am.
Very simply in words and in the business, much not so, not so all is simple and easy
Submitted by Pool Resurfacing (not verified) on Tue, 10/13/2009 - 10:25am.
While I wouldn't agree with using something like this to shame people into voting for one particular person, it seems it could be an effective way to get people out voting.
Submitted by Driver Detective (not verified) on Wed, 10/14/2009 - 10:05pm.
Wow I would have never thought about creating something like this. This could be used in so many different ways!
Submitted by gswawyer1970 (not verified) on Sat, 10/17/2009 - 10:13am.
I must say I'm surprised that it isn't somehow illegal to expose someone's voting history to the masses. That kind of information is protected or private in any way? Men's Swimwear
Submitted by bowling books (not verified) on Mon, 10/26/2009 - 3:17pm.
I agree it was a very interesting campaign.  Definitely a little out of the box, but it seems to have worked.
Submitted by Baba Pandey (not verified) on Tue, 10/27/2009 - 3:59am.

The  campaign seems effective and lets hope it will be completed successfully. the answer of question Seems smart, right? is right from me.

logiciel newsletter    wholesale forums 



Submitted by wholesaleshop (not verified) on Tue, 10/27/2009 - 8:43am.
This is the most interesting campaign i have read on the internet in a long time. keep up the good work
Submitted by Peter (not verified) on Sat, 10/31/2009 - 2:11am.
In fact, the turnout effect associated with this mailing is as strong as the effect of direct contact baby doppler
Submitted by How To Meet Women (not verified) on Sat, 10/31/2009 - 3:45am.
It was an interesting campaign, but I don't really agree with the shame tactics. There's nothing wrong with not voting in this country, it's an individual's right to choose. Sad to say that these days it really doesn't matter if you vote or not because you can usually only pick between two candidates who are both pretty much the same anyway. Until we get away from the two-party system, there really isn't any point in bothering to vote. I don't, and I'm fine with that because I feel like it's the right thing to do when asked to pick between two bad choices - I'm not interested in voting for the "lesser" of two evils.
Submitted by vikojhons on Wed, 11/04/2009 - 3:42am.

I found your website perfect for my needs. It contains wonderful and helpful posts. I have read most of them and got a lot from them. To me, you are doing the great work. Carry on this. work at home In the end, I would like to thank you for making such a nice website. Gun Control essays | Immigration essays | Marijuana essays Media And Women essays


Submitted by vikojhons on Wed, 11/04/2009 - 3:47am.

I must admit this resource is great for education, very helpful materials for professors and students. Media Censorship essays | Media Violence essays | Nutrition essays | Overpopulation essays | Pornography essays


Submitted by salvage auto (not verified) on Fri, 11/06/2009 - 3:49am.
What about the silent campaign like those we see in political games? Or the politic money plays? I just never like the idea. Salvage Auto
Submitted by document management software (not verified) on Fri, 11/06/2009 - 5:54am.
Good campaign will work, but only if you come in mass and with good planning. Document Management Software
Submitted by Stainless Steel Trash Can (not verified) on Fri, 11/06/2009 - 9:13am.

Great site and great post. I think it will actuall work but planning indeed needs to be done.

 ----------

stainless steel garbage can

 


Submitted by icon software (not verified) on Sat, 11/07/2009 - 6:52am.
I prefer the scale method of voting since it is more fair. The scale method also has less tendency of imposing power. Icon-Software.net provides visitors with informative articles relating to icon tools, icon resource, icon design teams and other icon related things
Submitted by Anonymous (not verified) on Mon, 11/09/2009 - 12:21am.

Big thumbs up for the MoveOn gang!

--------------------------------------

Doug @ <a href="http://www.kctrading.net">stainless all clad</a> and <a href="http://www.kctrading.net/3-stainless-all-clad-cookware-sets">kitchen all clad</a> cookware king


Submitted by stainless all clad (not verified) on Mon, 11/09/2009 - 12:37am.
1Great post...thanks
Submitted by fake diamond (not verified) on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 1:09am.
Keep the voting record well-managed for database purpose. It is odd how some organizations who do not understand the importance of database management lost lots of money every year. fake diamond
Submitted by coach hire (not verified) on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 3:39am.
Such campaigns are also quite massive in my country when it was nearly election time. It is fine as long as they are well coordinated. Jason - Coach Hire
Submitted by Sport supplement (not verified) on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 10:34pm.
But still, they will have to consider the goods and bads. There are always consequences of your decision.
Submitted by Herman77 (not verified) on Wed, 11/11/2009 - 12:31pm.
It might be a good idea to consider all the ways in which 123Inkjets Promo Code is critical to these actions. When coding on this system, fatcow promo code must be interwoven somehow with gay.com promo code lines, to create a fluid operating environment.
Submitted by matt (not verified) on Thu, 11/12/2009 - 12:40pm.
great article...thank you for the write up. Interesting campaign
Submitted by Business Advertising For Free (not verified) on Thu, 11/12/2009 - 8:13pm.
That is cool and quite understandable. I like the idea behind the scene , lol
Submitted by sex shop (not verified) on Sun, 11/15/2009 - 1:33am.
Nonvoters just do not understand the benefits of democracy. It was something our generations before fought for. sex shop
Submitted by New Parent List (not verified) on Sun, 11/15/2009 - 3:41am.
Most of the times I just can't understand why would people refuse to give their votes. Democracy is a big gift! A thing people have long dreamed for! New Parent List
Submitted by cristina (not verified) on Sun, 11/15/2009 - 12:58pm.
This si a really nice article . thanks a lot
Submitted by Horses for sale (not verified) on Sun, 11/15/2009 - 8:34pm.
Non voters are always there. We hear about them every time when it is nearly election period. I don't actually care at all. Let they do what they like. horses for sale
Submitted by safes (not verified) on Sun, 11/15/2009 - 10:27pm.
You get the scientific result through statistical data, don't you? I think there is something related to environment background and education level. safes
Submitted by james marnley (not verified) on Tue, 11/17/2009 - 9:37pm.
what a great blog , Thanks for this. I wish there was more blogs like this. I found this site by typing wholesale in google . Keep up the good work

Submitted by SimpelSimon (not verified) on Thu, 11/19/2009 - 1:04pm.
I like it - and now for some fresh air and exercise on a mountain - coming on a ski holiday?
Submitted by Anonymous (not verified) on Thu, 11/19/2009 - 4:40pm.
I bet those people who got mailings and such were a little more than simply perturbed when they seen them. I wonder if this crosses any legal lines? Ppo Plans
Submitted by buying a business (not verified) on Fri, 11/20/2009 - 7:01am.
MoveOn's campaign was certainly fruitful, and although some might say that their shame tactics is not ethical, I should say that it was certainly effective. A person sitting at home and not going to vote is certainly doing something unethical, and threatening them is well worth it.
Submitted by Sunglasses (not verified) on Sat, 11/21/2009 - 7:15am.
We need statistical data to analyze their motives and what drive the tendency, lol.. Well, I think non-voters are just a common phenomena in every country., especially developing countries.
Submitted by male hair loss (not verified) on Sat, 11/21/2009 - 7:48am.
I was one of the non-voters in the last election two years ago. I don't know why, just feel that it is useless to vote when you know every candidate is not serious in their missions.
Submitted by male hair loss (not verified) on Sat, 11/21/2009 - 7:56am.
I was one of the non-voters in the last election two years ago. I don't know why, just feel that it is useless to vote when you know every candidate is not serious in their missions.

Post new comment

The content of this field is kept private and will not be shown publicly.