This Is Profiling?

The New York Times has treated the NYPD's new data breaking down police stops of civilians by race as front page news and new evidence of racial profiling. Which it would indeed be, if the data shows anything of the sort—but it doesn't, and and the Times knows it.

The paper has now run three dispatches on the subject in the last four days. The first dispatch, published in the metro section the day after the data appeared, was a look by Al Baker and Emily Vasquez at why the number of stop and frisks and the arrest rate from stop and frisks have both risen substantially since comparable data was first released in 2002. All else being equal and assuming the arrests lead to convictions, a higher arrest rate from such encounters is a sign of good policing, especially when it track to a lower crime rate—it means less resentment from people who have been stopped despite having done nothing wrong, and it surely has something to do with the fact that New York's crime rate has continued to dip to record lows under Mayor Bloomberg and Police Commissioner Kelly. That is, lower than anyone thought was possible 15 years ago, and lower than anyone thought it would remain after Giuliani left office. And, remarkably, New York is virtually alone in having done this without incarcerating more people.

Continued here.



Submitted by Tom on Tue, 02/06/2007 - 3:08pm.

Of course we should accept the Manhattan Institutes views on crime and what does and doesn't constitute racial profiling as gospel, afterall they (Manhattan Institute) recently released a study that stated teachers in large urban areas are overpaid and paid better than other professionals. Of course they are, that's why there is no shortage of high quality candidates flocking to the teaching profession in cities like NY, Boston and Philly.

Btw, crime started declining under Dinkins as crack use declined and programs like Safe streets Safe cities were enacted under Dinkins and Vallone. That Rudy is somehow responsible for the falling crime rate is a half truth and the FBI stats that are so often quoted by this mayor and Rudy are always issued with a disclaimer from the FBI, that their numbers, FBI, are raw data and should be considered as such.

It's never profiling when you're not the one being profilied.I wonder how many minorities subscribe to the Manhattan Institutes viewpoints.


Submitted by Daniel Millstone on Tue, 02/06/2007 - 5:07pm.
And neither, it appears, does the Manhattan Institute. The amount of data submitted about the hundreds of thousands of stops NYPD performed in 2006 is large. No one I know has read it over carefully yet. The raw numbers can be interperted a number of different ways. Blacks are stopped in numbers disproportionate to their numbers in the population. Is that racial profilling? Maybe, maybe not. Peter Vallone says the reason blacks are stopped more than whites is that blacks resemble the people identifed as bad guys by crime victims or witnesses. (by which I think he means somewhat similar skin color; as I understand it, the report does not contain data to support Vallone's belief). The data also says there has been a 500% increase in such stops. Is the increase in the number of stops related to a decrease in crime? Anyone's guess based on this data. The stops appear to have resulted in a large number of arrests. (If they hadn't happned would be have had even less crime reported?) As I type, I don't know what sort of arrests those were (Pot? Gun?). To me the increase suggests that police managers are trying to keep cops on the street busy and they in turn are hoping to stumble onto major arrests which will get them promoted into more comfy detective slots. For the time being it might be better if we could lock Rev. Sharpton and the Manhattan Institute folk in a room together, so as to cut down on the empty rhetoric.
Rock Hackshaw's picture
Submitted by Rock Hackshaw on Tue, 02/06/2007 - 5:32pm.
I have said it a milion times on the blogs: that white boys are in perpetual denial when it comes to RACISM . As long as some of you (white-boys) can look at this self-condemning date and extrapolate that this isn't reacial profiling at its very least, then I will continue to say the same. BTW:remember that these numbers aren't totally accurate; there are PARTIAL numbers.I wonder what the real numbers are? You guys will stay in self-denial mode all the way to another KATRINA. The day this country blows its racial-powder-keg, is probably the day you guys finally admit that we have a REAL problem with race.

Submitted by rwallnerny on Tue, 02/06/2007 - 5:35pm.

Part of the problem may be that when a victim describes an assailant as "dark skinned", the police may assume black when such a description could easily mean hispanic/latino.  Or even a white guy who is italian or who has a good tan.  Why else are blacks stopped more than hispanics/latinos or dark skinned white europeans? 

I think Sharpton has a right to be upset over these numbers.  It seems like there is racial profiling going on.  I have talked to people who have had their bag searched numerous occasions over the last 2-3 years going into the subway near where I live in Brooklyn.  I live in a majority minority neighborhood.  Most of the people who say they had their bags searched are black.  A few are hispanic.  I am white.  I have not had mine searched once. I have also not met or talked to a single white person who had their bags searched. Is that a coincidence?  It sure does not seem like it.


Rock Hackshaw's picture
Submitted by Rock Hackshaw on Tue, 02/06/2007 - 5:35pm.
Thanks for your last post "rwallnerny". I needed to hear a white male say that ( for my mental health / of course).

Submitted by Cities On a Hill on Tue, 02/06/2007 - 6:03pm.

I don't think either commenter read my full remarks, which are here. If they did, they missed the point.

I'll recap: The data—which does raise several of the questions Daniel Millstone asks about the increase in (or increased reporting of) stop and frisks, though it does not support his speculative answers—does not support the claims now emerging of widespread profiling (I'll leave the general question of such profiling is appropriate for another post). It does show the following:

1) 55.2 percent of those stopped were black, while 68.5 percent of reported crimes involved suspects described as black. The Times got around to mentioning that in the 23 paragraph of a 27 graf front page story.

2) Arrest rates, which are indeed gross aggregates, show Whites accounted for ten per cent of searches and 12 per cent of arrests, Hispanics for 29 per cent of searches and 30 per cent of arrests, and blacks for 55 per cent of searches and 51 per cent of arrests. All groups, that is, had very similar percentages of stops result in arrests. (These numbers the Times didn't bother noting at all). Again conceding that this is aggregate data, that hardly supports a claim of racial bias or animus. 

Nothing I've seen thus has been commensurate with claims of racial profiling. If there's data I haven't seen, or I'm misinterpreting the data I have, show me how.

Thus far, though, it seems to me that the paper of record is using a news story to  editorialize against the policing of black neighborhoods, even though the facts in that story don't match the conclusions the reader is encouraged to draw. 

I wonder if the paper's editors noticed the irony of the story's jump running next to a dispatch entitled "Mothers Harness Grief to Try to Save Lives" about mothers in Harlem who have lost children to gun violence, and are now working with the police to get guns off the street.

Finally, i take these numbers only a little more seriously than, say, CCRB complaints. Every year, as CCRB complaints go up or down, advocates on the "winning" side of the issue use them to claim that brutality is up or down based on the numbers. That these numbers bear a very limited relationship to office conduct goes unremarked. 

Given the NYPD's selective stop and frisk reporting (where are the 03-06 numbers?), the immense pressure on precinct commanders to keep crime numbers down, and the vagueness of what's been released so far, the conclusions being drawn bear little resemblance to the facts at hand, and offer far more questions—why the 500% increase in stops? what is the breakdown of the crimes in the arrests they've lead to? how successful have prosecutions based on these arrests been? what controls are there on the data? and so on—than answers.


Rock Hackshaw's picture
Submitted by Rock Hackshaw on Tue, 02/06/2007 - 6:08pm.
You want to know what's dishonest about these stats, is the fact that somehow the cops are going to try to link their "stop and frisk" policy , to actual crime reports, that falsely assumes that they are co-related.

Submitted by Cities On a Hill on Tue, 02/06/2007 - 6:25pm.

Sorry about the double post of the comment before; not sure how to get rid of it. 


I do want to respond to Rock — Getting stopped by the police for no good reason you can tell (or for no good reason at all) is at best infuriating. Having to wonder if it's because of your race is literally dehumanizing. I have no doubt that there are racist cops, and that I have the luxury of never having to deal with them. I also agree—and wrote in my original post and now my comment above—that this data isn't worth much. 


But there's nothing in it showing that cops are systemically harassing black people. Does that mean they're not, or it's not a large problem? I wouldn't know based on this data, and if it was all I had to go on, wouldn't have reason to assume so. And that says a lot about the data, and not much one way or the other about the police. And it says a lot about the Times that they'd send a hack to the PJs to generate anecdotal complaints that don't match the data that's ostensibly the occasion for the story.  


I'd love to talk about what the data might mean—especially the 500% increase in stop and frisks, and whether or not that's real, and what if anything it has to do with crime rates (which also get fudged, some). But pretending the data proves profiling is a bad idea. Pretending the Times story is anything more than agitprop is a bad idea. 


Those are bad ideas even if racism is a major problem on the police force (which I think is a stretch). But even assuming that's so, why rely on what we all seem to agree are almost meaningless numbers, or on a patently dishonest newspaper story to make the case? Nothing discredits truth like wilfully using bad data and dishonest accounts to advance the cause. 


Submitted by rwallnerny on Tue, 02/06/2007 - 6:29pm.
Bear in mind that this is the same police dept/commissioner who has repeatedly denied there is a problem with city taxi cab drivers doing racial profiling when they decide who to stop for.  As if there doesn't need to be standards for the city giving out those medallions to cab drivers.  Which shows that Ray Kelly probably does not ride taxis very much, nor know what it must feel like being a black man in the middle of the night in midtown manhattan trying to get a cab to stop.  It is as absurd to say police officers don't racially profile as it is cab drivers.
Submitted by Tom on Tue, 02/06/2007 - 6:34pm.

That you would call 100 Blacks in Law Enforcement the dept.'s usual "race baiters" speaks volumes about you, Manhattan Institute and the articles you've edited and your take on racial profiling. Lee never used the term race baiters, you did. You've taken a lot of liberties in your interpretation of Lee's article which seems to take a position oppposite of yours. Did you miss the opening paragraph? 

This is the extreme end of the racist nannie state in which momma bloomberg knows what's best for all of us, but doesn't want to speak about it publicly. Just more evidence of the cluelessness and prejudice in the Bloomberg administration which he attempts to head off by bribing certain community leaders for their silence.

Btw, racism in govt. in the time of this mayor has gotten worse, it's become more covert and met with a smile and slap on the back.


Submitted by Anonymous (not verified) on Tue, 02/06/2007 - 8:28pm.

Just to follow up on Cities for a second -- I think the point he makes is a narrower one than that which the "profiling/racism exists" posters wish to convey. 

In short, Cities raises a longstanding and vexing problem with the Times's coverage of Metro issues, and particularly of racial issues in the metro area.  As Cities asks, why bury an important (no matter which way you ultimately come down on the issue) statistic in para 24 of 27; why fail to mention the searches/arrest data at all; and why (as Tom and others point out) not at least mention that these data are raw numbers? 

In my opinion, this goes beyond a mere ombudsman's problem, but rather is one example of systematic slanting and intellectual laziness and dishonesty on the part of the Gray Lady. 

 


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