ISHTAR

“And, from my vantage point as a pragmatic Clintonite/DLC, neo-lib, New Democrat, Hillary (now that Feingold has departed and Kerry self destructed) stands as the least pragmatic choice available for 2008. If propping her up is the real reason behind efforts for Dean’s removal, I’ll yell out a hog-call for Howard and the level playing field he ensures, as I prepare to support Bayh, Biden, Richardson, Obama or Gore” --Gatemouth 11/13/06

Now that I’m attending the Democratic National Convention as a credentialed blogger, it’s probably time I commented on the Presidential race; I haven’t done so since the high holidays, and then it was the Republicans (I basically concluded that if a madman held a gun against my testes and threatened to shoot if I didn’t state my preference among the GOP candidates, I would reluctantly name McCain).

I'm a Clinton Democrat, but originally was "anyone but Hillary" because I thought she wasn't electable. I was hoping Gore would run on grounds of both electability and policy.

Barring that, I preferred Edwards--but only on electability. On policy and gravitas, I liked Biden (Richardson almost qualified, but seemed too much a loose cannon--which is saying a lot when you are comparing someone to Biden), but both Clinton and Obama appealed to me more than Edwards on policy.

I fully acknowledged that, in general election, a white woman seemed more electable than a black man, but we're weren’t talking about a generic white woman and a generic black man, and I wasn’t sure who was more electable in a contest between this particular white woman and this particular black man. However, when it comes to electing a Democrat, I'll take a cracker everytime. Won for us in 64, 76, 92, 96 & 2000 (LOL!).

Once Edwards was out, I was stumped. Since electability was not the issue, I had to consider policy. Clinton and Obama seemed equally willing to deviate from the party received wisdom, which was good, but in each case, their deviations were equally likely as the other's to be wrong. Actually Clinton impressed me more, but Obama seemed extremely willing to stand up to the teacher's unions, which earns a lot of points in the Gatemouth/Domestic Partner household (our youngest son, Dybbuk is about to start school, a process which in New York City requires intrigues which would have shamed the Borgias). I was really undecided.

That is, until LBJ became an issue in the race. I went off the deep end when Obama called Hillary's historically accurate remarks concerning the symbiotic roles of LBJ and MLK in passing the Civil Rights laws "unfortunate". And the more I watched the race, the more annoyed I got with him. Though I prefer single payer, on the neo-liberal grounds that employer based health insurance is hurting American competitiveness, I thought Obama's health care plan was especially lacking, and while I could hardly blame him for copping out on mandatory coverage, I could and did blame him for attacking Clinton on it. Frankly, after the LBJ thing, I just found Obama more and more annoying every time I watched a debate. To me "Hope" ain't nuthin but a little town in Arkansas, and it's just as likely to produce a Mike Huckabee as a Bill Clinton

Domestic Partner was unrelenting in trying to persuade me into voting for Obama, basically threatening me with a Lysistrata. One evening, in an effort not intended to persuade, but merely to get DP to leave me alone, I went through my list of reasons. Finally I ended with "and what do you think Obama would do if there were another Bosnia or Kosovo?"

"I don't know"

"Exactly; neither do I. But I do know that the "just say no" (to any use of American force, ever, for any reason, even to stop genocide) crowd is backing him. And I do know what Hillary would do, because she already did it. It was she and Al Gore who persuaded Bill to get off his ass and do the right thing."

And Domestic Partner switched sides, genocide being the ultimate character issue, at least for the child of someone who spent three years living in an attic like Anne Frank. Later, during the Hillary is a “power hungry monster” incident, I learned of Obama advisor Samantha Power’s work in this very area, and I realized that Obama, who’d sought Power out because of her book on genocide, was also good to go on this issue (Outside of horny adolescent males, I may be the one voter in America who found Power a net plus for Obama). But, by then, Domestic Partner had acquired the fervor of the convert, and is still holding out for a Clinton victory as we speak.

But, as I’ve said, conversion wasn’t my intent. By then DP’s sister, Feygele, had converted our five year old into a rabid Obamaniac. Since Dybbuk was so excited about Obama, I was really hoping that one of us would be able to take him to vote and actually let him pull the lever for his guy.

There was no reasoning with Feygele, who talks about Clinton evil in terms resembling those of Richard Mellon Scaife and other members of the “Great Right Wing Conspiracy”. I'm still waiting for her to bring up the murder of Vincent Foster. At any rate, my son now hates Hillary. When I showed him the letter Bill Clinton sent him after he was born, he responded that he liked Bill Clinton but still hated Hillary. Still later, when he saw Chelsea on TV with Hillary and Bill, he asked who the girl was. When I told him, he asked me if she had a boyfriend.

Domestic Partner went with Dybbuk to Obama Headquarters in Lower Manhattan and got him a poster. But the poster had no picture. On the Sunday before the primary, I saw a sandwich poster with a picture of Obama at the local subway stop. I carefully peeled the tape to remove one poster, but leave the other hanging, and took it home. I realized that this was probably the first campaign that, when they hung signs, had more to worry about from supporters than opponents.

A couple of nights later, when I was reading him his bedtime story, Dybbuk told me his Obama poster was talking to his ET poster, which is sort of how I feel about the Obama campaign myself. A couple weeks later, he told me one night he was scared of ghosts. I told him that we were downstairs if he needed us, and he was still not placated. Then I said that Obama and ET were there to watch over him. He responded, "but they are not real". Exactly!

On primary day, I let Dybbuk pull down the lever for Obama, then I put it back up so I could vote for Hillary. Since it had no impact on delegate allocation, I did allow him to vote for two Obama delegates, the better to block one guy I disliked. Dybbuk seemed OK with that.

That seems like an eternity ago, even to a guy who remembers the 80s like yesterday. And speaking of the 80s, the Clinton campaign put me in mind of Hollywood mega-disaster All-Star money-pit referred to in the title; I’m picturing our Senator and her spouse stranded in the desert with a blind camel (is it Terry McAuliffe?) yelling at the vultures that they’re not dead yet. And what became of the hope engendered by the Obama crusade? Is he just Warren Beatty to Hillary’s Dustin Hoffman? Sadly, I fear we may be in for a McCain landslide of McGovernite proportions. But, that’s the good news; it won't be a Reagan/Carter type landslide.

In 1972, the Democratic Presidential nominee lost 49 states, but there were no significant loses in Congress, we might even have picked up a few seats. By contrast, Jimmy Carter’s 1980 loss was less daunting than McGovern’s, but his party lost control of the Senate, as well as enough Republicans to often achieve working control of the House.

What the recent special Congressional elections in Ole Miss and the Big Sleazy prove is that making Obama the issue won't work. Obama may lose, but it won’t save the Republicans down-ballot from their well-deserved and long-overdue thrashing.
By contrast, if Obama is denied the nomination after winning the majority of elected delegates, so many black voters will stay home, or even desert, that both houses will be lost. I think the party hacks understand where self interest lies, and will go with Obama--I know I would.



Submitted by Anonymous (not verified) on Thu, 05/15/2008 - 10:53am.
It must be the work of an imposter.
Rock Hackshaw's picture
Submitted by Rock Hackshaw on Thu, 05/15/2008 - 11:35am.
SOS. SOS. Hey Gatemouth: someone is writing your blog; hurry up and come to Room8/lol.BTW: why is it that your domestic partner changes gender from article to article as the years go by/lol?

Submitted by NYC Wanker (not verified) on Thu, 05/15/2008 - 11:49am.
I can't figure out whether "DP" is a he, she or one of those new hybrid models, either varietal or blend.  
Submitted by Chuck Grodin (not verified) on Thu, 05/15/2008 - 1:11pm.
..telling the truth is dangerous business.
Submitted by GW (not verified) on Thu, 05/15/2008 - 2:06pm.
I much appreciate an author who understands that the race is complex, and not easily pidgeonholed.  I have come to simliar conclusions, though I have not yet abandoned the hope of a last minute, come-from-behind upset by Hillary.
Submitted by EnWhySeaWonk on Thu, 05/15/2008 - 2:53pm.

Gatey has always been intentionally vague on his personal life. If this blog is going to start getting attention again during the convention, I better write something.


Submitted by Anonymous (not verified) on Thu, 05/15/2008 - 3:14pm.
If you can't afford a room, you can always bunk with Rock
Rock Hackshaw's picture
Submitted by Rock Hackshaw on Thu, 05/15/2008 - 3:24pm.
You must be kidding GW. You have to be kidding.

Submitted by Oscar Wildecat (not verified) on Thu, 05/15/2008 - 3:31pm.
I'd bet on Rock bunking with Wonk before I'd bet on a Hillary Victory
Submitted by Anonymous (not verified) on Thu, 05/15/2008 - 3:41pm.
Will Parker slap Rock in the face in front of a national tv audience? Any one wants to bet on this?
Submitted by Anonymous (not verified) on Thu, 05/15/2008 - 5:03pm.

I think what is really crucial is that if Obama is the nominee, he must choose an older white guy with foreign policy experience.

The reasons are Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, Michigan.  For the Democrats to win the electoral college, they must take three of those four.  The math doesn't work any other way.   Obama lost badly in Ohio and Pennsylvania, and hasn't polled well in Florida in Michigan.  All four are states where the swing voters are heavily blue collar, older, non-college eduacated union white voters, many of whom strongly value military service.  These are also the voters who will be least comfortable with a non-white candidate with no military service and no foreign policy experience. These are voters that could easily go to McCain.  Hillary's main argument, stated out loud or not, is Obama can't win those states and she can.  I agree with Gatemouth that the political damage from not nominating Obama would be too great at this point, but how do you win the electoral college without winning those states?

So Obama must choose a runningmate who appeals to them more than McCain the war hero does.  Wesley Clark?  Ohio Governor Ted Strickland?  I don't know but it can't be Hillary, it can't be anybody who hasn't worn the uniform and hasn't got union/blue collar appeal.

 


Submitted by EnWhySeaWonk on Fri, 05/16/2008 - 5:34pm.
I can afford my own room [Star Jones Voice] I am a lawyer. But I will not be going to the convention.
Submitted by Anonymous (not verified) on Fri, 05/16/2008 - 9:28pm.

Read this:

 If Clinton Wants VP, Obama Can't Stop Her

By Bob Beckel
Does Hillary Clinton want to be the Democrats vice presidential candidate? Probably. Could she get on the ticket by dropping out before the last states vote on June 3rd? Definitely not. Does Barack Obama want her on the ticket? Absolutely not. Can he stop her if she wants it? Probably not. Why not? Super delegates are why not.

When the last pledged delegates are totaled on June 3rd, and assuming the current demographic support continues for both candidates (and baring a major development they will), Barack Obama will have around 1690 delegates and Hillary Clinton around 1550. Add in their current super delegate support and Obama will have 1980 total delegates, and Clinton 1825.


There are roughly 235 undecided or unnamed super delegates, most of whom will pick sides before or shortly after June 3rd. Given the inevitability of his nomination Obama will get the lion share of these delegates. An educated guess would be 185 for Obama, 50 for Clinton. Final count; Obama 2165; Clinton 1875. (Assume Michigan and Florida will be seated and be an even split so we can leave the magic number at the current 2026).

It's all over. Obama will have about 54% of the delegates and Clinton 46%. (I know there are a few delegates missing. Some are Edwards, a few uncommitted, and a few refusing to decide- another wash). Hillary Clinton will have come up short by 150 votes. But this isn't horseshoes. That said she still comes in a very close second, which puts her among the closest runner-ups in Democratic Party history.

So Barack Obama is free to pick a running mate? Not so fast. Her losing margin of 150 is only 19% of the super delegates at the convention. Most of the 795 super delegates have been put under enormous pressure by both candidates for months. For those that chose Obama the decision was an especially painful one both personally and politically.

Almost all super delegates have had a long history with the Clintons. Many have only personally known Barack Obama a few months. Many who sided with Obama have benefited professionally, financially, and politically from their relationship with the Clintons. Many had jobs, and good ones, in the Clinton Administration. Many have been the recipients of tens of thousands of dollars raised on their behalf by the Clintons.

Can you imagine how hard it was for most of these super delegates to turn down the former president of the United States? It was tough enough turning Hillary down, but their former boss, political godfather, and personal friend? I've talked to many of them; trust me it was for most the hardest thing they have ever had to do in their political lives.

Just consider for a moment the final phone call with Bill Clinton when the super delegate had to tell him he or she had decided to go with Obama. Clinton," It's time to make a decision. Hillary needs you and I need you. We've been through a lot together. When you needed me I was there, now we need you".

Super delegate, "Mr. President, this is the hardest thing I've ever had to do, but I'm going with Obama because (whatever). Ask me for anything else Mr. President, but I've got to do this". Clinton, "I'm very disappointed and personally hurt, but do what you think you have to do. So long."

Now imagine its June 4th and Clinton calls again. Clinton, "I know Obama has enough votes to win, but I wanted you to know Hillary has decided to run for vice president at the convention. You know there are two roll call votes at the convention: first president then for vice president. I know you are voting for Obama for president. Fine, but I want your commitment to vote for Hillary for vice president."

You imagine being on the floor in Denver. Hillary's delegates, NEARLY HALF THE DELEGATES, are demanding she be on the ticket. These are true believers who have stuck with Clinton through thick and thin. To them, putting Hillary on the ticket is a crusade.

Most Clinton delegates are women, most Democratic voters are women, and they're going to just accept some middle aged white governor that Obama is rumored to want? No way. They are in your face. Hillary supporters from back home are jamming your Blackberry. This and more horror scenes flash through your mind in a nano second.

Then it occurs to you; if the roles were reversed and Obama came close to winning and wanted to be the vice presidential candidate, could you imagine the convention saying no?

Clinton," If we get your commitment now (we've already got a bunch of Obama super delegates to support her) we don't have to take a vote or fight in Denver. With Hillary's pledged delegates and a hundred or so super delegates we'll be over 2026 before the end of June. Saves Barack the hassle of picking a running mate and we can be united against McCain on day one."

Are you going to tell the former president of the United States no again? Anyway you convince yourself it's a great ticket and will help Obama in those big swing states. "I'm with you Mr. President". Clinton," I knew I could count on you". You want to bet there aren't 20% of the super delegates who would buy this deal? We're talking super delegates here, not profiles in courage.

If Hillary Clinton wants the vice presidential nomination, and her loyal delegates demand it, and the Clinton machine puts its full weight behind it, she will be on the ticket.

Count on it.

Bob Beckel managed Walter Mondale's 1984 presidential campaign. He is a senior political analyst for the Fox News Channel and a columnist for USA Today. Beckel is the co-author with Cal Thomas of the book "Common Ground."


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