The Gateway (Race Aroni Edition)
Orthodox Pundit is right that the Aroni Satmar are exaggerating their strength within the Williamsburg community-- but not by as much as OP (and Albert Friedman of the independent Satmar paper Der Tzitung, who made similar observations to me on the phone right before Shabbos and in another conversation earlier this week) say.
So, given what parts of 50 are in the 7th, I gotta think that Nydia didn't build much of a margin in the 50th outside of the borsht belt, any more than she did in the 53rd (carried by her, but not overwhelmingly) 54th (won by Dilan by a small margin) and the small adjoining, mostly Latino portions of black ADs (which she won unimpressively).
Nydia's campaign’s own analysis had the Hasidic area at 58/41 in Dilan's favor. I'm not sure if this incorporates the 450 vote error in her favor OP found (her Brooklyn Heights numbers correct a similar error in Dan O'Connor's favor).
Her campaign's own stats show she took only 55% in non-Hasidic Williamsburg, though much, if not most of that was in the 53rd AD. However, it seems unlikely that the Latinos in the Hasidic areas voted much differently than the other Williamsburg Latinos. meaning that the Latino vote did not do much to change the margins in the Hasidic areas.
My guess is the Aronis lost the Hasidic vote by about 62/38. Actually a not inconsiderable margin, but nothimg like the Hasidic strength from days of old. Yossi: I Have the Numbers | Orthodox Pundit: News & Political Analysis orthodoxpundit.blogspot.com
The Aroni spin on their own strength is full of flat out lies and exaggerations, most of which Colin catches in the attached link.
However, the idea that the Aronis gave anything like full support to Lincoln Restler last time is pretty close to fictitious (he had some support from a faction of a faction). Further, when the Aronis backed David Greenfield, they were doing do in service to Lopez, not to oppose him.
Albert Friedman, publisher of Der Tzitung asked me an interesting question.
Simcha Felder has never hidden that his views are in opposition to the LGBT community on pretty much the entirety of their legislative agenda.
A man whose agenda of slashing social services and cutting taxes would be like a schochet's ax aimed straight at the neck of his poor constituents, who would suffer grievously from the implementation of his program (no matter how many members items he got them). Storobin Links Felder to ‘The Christine Quinn Agenda’ and Explains Why Skelos Will Back Him politicker.com
Two More Storobin thoughts:
Skelos might have a deal with Simcha Felder, but it doesn't take an idiot to see why a real Republican might be preferable if you could be assured of getting one.
As Skelos’ conference ages out and seats open or challenges mount, Skelos wants to have these votes in the bank.
My other Storobin thought is that the fact that Storobin is running for Senate is partially the result of a rare break between Skelos and Marty Golden.
52nd AD Results (after adjustment for errors):
But even if we concede that Steve Levin and Lopez's NYCHA connections will get Debra support not available against the union-backed Velazquez, and concede that Scotto has a motivated base in a low-turnout election with nothing else on the ballot (and we ignore the fact that her father is not perceived kindly among much of the perceived Scotto base—many old Italians think Buddy wants to landmark their houses to boost home prices in order to benefit Debra’s real estate business), it still seems impossible to see Debra breaking the one-third mark in this district.
And, while Deb Scotto certainly looks younger and fresher than Jo Anne Simon to my 54 year old eyes, I'm not sure that younger voters won't perceive them as being part of the same baby boomer generation.
And, the fact that the Scotto crowd managed to do so little for Dilan (Debra still refuses to tell people who she voted for, even though choosing which candidates the Party organization supports is one of a District Leader's actual functions) probably only dampens Lopez's enthusiasm to the same pro forma level of support Dilan got from the Scottos.
Hesh Rabkin: If I was in Rangel's camp, the 2 massive errors in Nydia's count would make me really nervous.
Romney--still pro-Romneycare in 2009, and successfully urging Obama to be the same. Romney's blueprint for Obamacare, July 2009 | xpostfactoid xpostfactoid.blogspot.com
In an amazing act of chutzpah, Anthony "The Gelded Hot Dog" Weiner "touted his own work on behalf of the Affordable Health Care Act."
What's Jack Abramoff doing on "Real Time," live on a Friday night? Isn't he frum? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=njb015vdt9Y Jack Abramoff, lead guest on "Real Time with Bill Maher" (6.29.12)
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