Efforts for the Democrats to hang onto the 32 votes needed to pass legislation in the State Senate appear to be doomed. At best, the Democrats still have a shot at winning back the vote of Hiram Monserrate. If the Democrats can both win back Monserrate, and obtain a ruling voiding Monday’s vote changing the Senate Leadership, then the leadership of the Senate, and the concomitant control over office space, lulus, leadership positions and other internal resources will remain in their hands, although, without 32 votes, they will still lose their power to pass legislation. 

Let us then go over the possible scenarios.

1) THE REPUBLICANS RETAIN MONSERRATE AND WIN IN COURT: Republicans gain both operational control over the Senate, and all the perks that will bring, and they get the right to pass one-house bills and stop those from the Assembly. The Albany Bi-Partisan Iron Triangle is restored.

2) THE REPUBLICANS RETAIN MONSERRATE BUT LOSE IN COURT: Democrats retain operational control as long as the Senate never meets again. Seemingly, they will eventually have to meet, and the Republicans will take control. [ Conversely, if the Democrats get to 32 and lose in Court, they can do the same; perhaps the new rules can delay this for awhile, but eventually power would revert back to them]

3) MONSERRATE RETURNS TO THE DEMOCRATS, BUT THE REPUBLCIANS WIN IN COURT: Espada become President Pro Tempore, and all the rule changes passed on Monday remain in effect. Since the Republicans only undid all the Democrats’ committee appointments, to the extent that making further changes requires a vote, there is gridlock--gridlock beyond the mere inability to pass bills. To the extent the rules empower the Republicans, they move forward. Eventually, someone has to jump. If there were a strong Governor, this might benefit the Democrats, but given their advantage of limited operational control, it probably benefits the Republicans.

4) MONSERRATE RETURNS TO THE DEMOCRATS AND THE DEMOCRATS WIN IN COURT. As previously stated, the Democrats return to operational control, but, to the extent they ever had it, they lose the power to pass legislation. However, they also lose the power to change their leadership. To elect someone other than Malcolm Smith as President Pro Tempore takes 32 votes, and they don’t have them. Perhaps they can find a way, within their Conference, to bifurcate the job in the manner the Republicans propose, but without taking a floor vote. Nonetheless, Malcolm Smith remains the man who remains a heartbeat away. Perhaps this consolation prize will allow him to save enough face to go quietly from the Party Leadership.

WHAT IF MONSERRATE LEAVES THE SENATE: Under scenario one Republicans would keep operational control, but lose the ability to pass legislation. Assuming the Republicans eventually take power under scenario two, the same would apply. Under scenario three, Republican power, to the extent they have it, would be unaffected. Under scenario four, the Democrats would retain operational control, with less seats than the Republicans, until the vacancy was filled when they would be back to 31.

WHAT IF AUBERTINE LEAVES THE SENATE: A Republican pickup would solidify their control under the first three scenarios. Under the fourth, it would shift power to the Republicans.