GATEMOUTH (DECEMBER 20, 2011):
Whether or not David Storobin’s 120 vote lead holds up, this is a victory for the Republican Party.
In two special elections in a row, the Jewish part of white southern Brooklyn has shown its vibrant portions (Orthodox Jews and Russians) to be strongly Republican.
Does anyone doubt they will show it in a general election where the Democratic ticket is headed by Barack Obama?
The 27th, in its soon to disappear configuration, went 57% for John McCain.
While there is still in Southern Brooklyn a large countervailing group of the type of Jew who goes to a Conservative synagogue every Saturday, and afterwards goes out to the diner with the other members of the Men’s Club for bacon and eggs (hence, the term “Bacon and Eggs Jews”), with every moving van to Florida or hearse ride to a Long Island cemetery, their numbers get smaller.
If Fidler had won (and he may still), it will be a purely personal victory, but it will not give Steve Cymbrowitz or Bill Colton any reasons for comfort (even though they both voted against same-sex marriage).
In a 120 vote election, it might have been dispositive.
Would it have made a difference if Fidler hadn’t been hospitalized for a long period, losing crucial campaign time, and spurring a GOP whispering campaign?
Of course, but as I stated, while this would have changed the result, none of this would change the Southern Brooklyn facts on the ground.
In 2010, Anthony Weiner lost his old Councilmanic District and Kirsten Gillibrand lost here to Joe DioGuardi.
Can Fidler pull this election out?
I’ve seen elections flip in a paper count, provided one side has done its homework.
Fidler always does his homework. There are always multiple mailing to the permanent absentee list in any Fidler-run operation.
Plus, “Bacon and Egg Jews” make up almost all of the Snowbird Absentee Vote.
If Fidler does pull it out, it is clear he should not run in the new Super Jewish District. All indications are that Fidler got his clock cleaned among the Orthodox.
Despite a lifetime (predating his election to any office) spent delivering for the Orthodox community, Fidler got almost zero Hakoras Hatov (
And now, with the humiliation of Lew Fidler, maybe the Democrats are going to get this.
At least one has.
An ambitious elected from a different (but safe) seat with a substantial Orthodox population told me last fall “I deliver all I should and a bit more, I do all my mitzvoth. Yet now they tell me, ‘fine, if you are running for Public Advocate in a field of six liberals, we will support you, but if you are challenged at home by a social conservative, no matter how crazy, you’re out of luck.’
What is supposed to keep me delivering for them, besides the fact that the need is there and it is the right thing to do?”
Food for thought.
Anyway, if Fidler does pull this out, he should just give up on the Super Jewish District and spend the 8 months making Marty Golden’s life miserable. As a bonus, the Dems will be able to nominate someone like David Greenfield in the new seat.
And if Storobin wins, then the Dems should still nominate someone like Greenfield, because the GOP will be saddled running David Storobin among folks who’ve forgotten the meaning of Hakoras Hatov.