An Analysis of NYC Primary Results

Gatemouth did an excellent job analyzing and commenting on the Primary election results. However, he was limited by having only Assembly District returns. I have now obtained the results by E.D. so can try to look a little more deeply into some of the results.

10th CD & 11th CD

In the 10th CD, Congressman Ed Towns won a narrower than expected victory. Towns received 19,469 votes (47%) to Councilman Charles Barron’s 15,345 (37%) and Assemblyman Roger Green’s 6,237 (16%).

The race to replace Congressman Major Owens in the 11th was won by Councilwoman Yvette Clarke – 15,711 votes 31% to Councilman David Yassky’s 13,928 (27%) – State Senator Carl Andrews – 11,685 (23%) and Chris Owens – 9,971 (19%).

While both districts have Black majorities (I’m not breaking any news here) both have potential significant numbers of White voters.

Based on past campaigns, Prime New York has designated EDs in Brooklyn as “Brownstone” (where a large number of liberal Whites live) and “Orthodox” (where most voters are Orthodox or Hasidic Jews).

Here are the Primary results from those EDs for the 2 races:

Brownstone

Barron              1,970

Towns              1,707

Green               1,138


Yassky             8,043

Owens             4,885

Clarke              2.201

Andrews           1,764

It appears that the issue surrounding Ratner do help Barron & Owens in these EDs (which are not exclusively White). Both Green & Andrews have a number of these EDs in their Senate & Assembly Districts.

Orthodox

Towns              3,547

Green               327

Barron              250

 

Yassky             1,043

Andrews            625

Clarke              431

Owens             241

Another interesting way to look at these races is to see how the candidates did in their own Senate, Assembly & Council Districts. Here they are:

 

Barron Council District

Barron              5,135

Towns              3,774

Green               799

 

Green Assembly District

Barron              2,007

Towns               1,671

Green             1,344

Andrews Senate District

Andrews            6,981

Clarke              6,856

Yassky             5,636

Owens             4,447

Yassky Council District

Yassky             2,692

Owens             1,630

Clarke              614

Andrews            481

Clarke Council District

Clarke              4,448

Andrews            2,834

Yassky             1,522

Owens             1,363


Note that there is some overlap here as voters can be in both Andrews SD & Clarke’s CCD, for example.

13th SD

State Senator John Sabini won a close race against Councilman Hiram Monserrate 6,336 (51%) to 6,094 (49%).

Here I think the interesting way to look at this is to see how Monserrate did in his Council District (the 21st) and Sabini, and ex-Councilman did in his (25th)

Monserrate Council District

Monserrate            3,545

Sabini                     1,947

Sabini Council District

Sabini               4,241

Monserrate            2,471

 25th SD

State Senator Martin Connor with 11,459 votes (55%) defeated Ken Diamondstone’s 9,238 (45%).

As Gatemouth has pointed out, Connor barely carried the Brooklyn portion of the district 3,864-3806.

The 2 areas where Connor did the best were the 2 different parts of the district that are dominated by Orthodox Jews. In the area of the Lower East Side known as Grand Street, Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver’s base, Connor won 1,363 to 522.  In the Williamsburgh portion of Brooklyn, home to the Satmar community, Connor won by an eye-popping 1,612 to 153.

2nd Civil Court (Manhattan)

The narrow victory of Margaret Chan resulted in numerous comments, charges and counter-charges of the blogs. I'm not going to get into any of that.

Chan won by 145 votes, receiving 5,278 votes (41.4%) to David Cohen’s 5,133 (40.2%) and Andrea Masley’s 2,352 (18.4%).

Chan’s base obviously was the Asian vote. To try to see how they actually voted, I selected every ED where Asian surnamed voters were over 20% of the total registered voters. In these EDs, the results were Chan 1,036 - Cohen 352 - Masley 222.

Cohen’s base was the same as Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver’s, Grand Street. In those EDs, the results were Cohen 1,323 - Chan 392 – Masley 148.

So, if only the 2 bases voted, Cohen would have won. However they are not the only parts of the polyglot district. Chan won because she beat Cohen among the large Hispanic Housing Authority projects and the parts of the district in the East & Central Village. She did not win solely because of the Asian vote.

24th SD Republican Primary

Councilman Andrew Lanza defeated former County Leader Robert Helbock with 53% of the vote - 3,825 to 3,329. In Lanza’s own Council District, his margin was much bigger as he received 66% of the vote – 2,220 to 1,165

Next time, I’ll look at some of the Statewide Primary contests.