Joe Torre & Karl Rove

In reading and hearing some New York City sportswriters call for the firing of Joe Torre, I’m reminded of how too many political writers write about the people who run political campaigns the same way.

Just as baseball writers and fans were quick to brand Torre a loser despite his overall record (one Daily News writer said if Torre was re-hired the Yankees were telling their fan to settle for mediocrity – after a 97 win season!), too many political reporters and folks who comment on blogs consider anyone involved with a winning campaign a genius and anyone in a losing one an idiot.

Let’s look at two Presidential campaigns

Both candidates were governors who ran against Vice Presidents who were serving under successful two term Presidents. The country was at peace and the economy was doing well.

One governor got 46% of the popular vote, the other got 47%.

The candidate with 46% was Mike Dukakis. LOSER.

You remember him. He was such a loser that he’s a punch line for jokes about losers. The folks who ran his campaign  blew the election by having him ride in a tank looking like Snoopy. The let his answer a question about what he would do if his wife were raped that made look like a wimp . Nobody from his campaign is considered a genius. 

The 47% candidate was George W. Bush. WINNER.

His campaign was run by Karl Rove who is so smart that one book about him is titled Bush’s Brain and another Boy Genius. Rove is so brilliant that political reporters are probably trying to find out if he is behind the North Korean nuclear tests.

Of course, if the butterfly ballot had not confused 1,000 Jews in Palm Beach, Rove would have been the idiot who blew a big lead by having Bush spend a day in Los Angeles that he should have spent in Jacksonville.

In the same way Joe Torre would have stayed a genius a little longer if Dave Roberts were thrown out at second base 3 years ago.

Let me make it clear what I’m saying. I’m not saying that there is no difference in the abilities of those running campaigns or managing or coaching sports teams.

And sometimes those in charge do act like geniuses or idiots and it makes a difference. I happen to think Grady Little did blow the series against the Yankees by not removing Pedro Martinez. And I think David Garth’s campaign was responsible for Ed Koch being elected Mayor in 1977.

What I am saying is that a lot of factors are involved in whether a candidate or a team win or lose. It’s rarely solely the fact that the people in charge of the winner did a much better job than the folks with the loser. And it would be a good thing for more people to realize that.

By the way, despite my own opinion, I would like nothing better than to see the Democrats win the Senate and House and then to read a Robert Novak column calling for Bush to fire Rove.

 

 

 

 



Submitted by Natpol on Thu, 10/12/2006 - 10:38am.

With all do respect lets not forget that another governor Bill Clinton got only 43% with genius James Carvel and 49% with genius Dick Morris.  Consultants do not account for much in most campaigns, but I think Rove and the others I mentioned all made a significant difference in their races.


Submitted by ROCK (not verified) on Thu, 10/12/2006 - 11:20am.
          Most times the candidates has a lot of opinions but no real experience. Many of them think that because they are good-looking, educated and articulate that the voters will just sweep them into office. It's usually up to the tacticans/operatives(who are experienced in the field) to find the way to a victory; thus I think that people like Rove, Carville, Morris, Garth, Lynch, Flateau, Ramirez et al deserve their accolades. It's easy to blow a won race.
Submitted by ROCK (not verified) on Thu, 10/12/2006 - 11:22am.
I didn't preview my last comment. Sorry for the grammatical error.
Submitted by 628 (not verified) on Fri, 10/13/2006 - 10:00am.

The economy was NOT doing well in November 2000. The internet bubble was already popping. However, that the country was at peace and was prosperous has become one of the accepted myths of the 2000 campaign, though in retrospect it was neither.

The Clinton economy had the same characteristics of the Bush economy, gaudy DJIA and GDP numbers with a loss of manufacturing jobs and median income going nowhere, though its true that under Bush the "good" numbers are a little less good and the "bad" numbers considerably worse.

Clinton's 49% of the popular vote in 1996 was also important. There has never been a presidential election in U.S. history where a party won the WHite House for two terms, then had its vote IMPROVE in the third election. Its always gone down. Gore got nearly (48%) the same popular vote percentage as Clinton. There is another myth that somehow Donna Brazile ran a bad campaign. It was every bit as bad as Clinton's 1996 campaign, if you look at the numbers. And yes, Rove also blew it in that election.

The Dukakis campaign is remembered as being bad because he had a ridiculously high lead in the polls after the convention, and the Republicans were coming off a stock market crash and a major scandal. But his campaign had less to work with than Bush's in 2000.

Its true, alot of sports commentators could benefit from a course in basic probability. But at least in sports commentary there is some nod to trying to apply historical statistics.


Submitted by 628 (not verified) on Fri, 10/13/2006 - 10:14am.

I made an error in the above post. The Republicans won the 1920, 1924, and 1928 presidential elections, and their percentage of the popular vote did go up between 1924 and 1928, by 2%. But their margin over the Democrats still dropped, considerably.

I stand by my point, in that the best Gore could have done was to hold on to as much as the 1996 Clinton vote as possible and eke out a plurality. Which he did.


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