New NYC Prime DemocratsThe exciting contest for the Democratic nomination for President has created millions of new Democrats. Tuesday, the Associated Press reported on this http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5iyCjg56QEYy3r8Gz2X09TnpaWOMwD90FSOB00 But there is a local angle also – the race is creating new Prime Democrats! Using our Prime New York voter file, I have identified 276,076 Democrats who voted in this year’s Presidential Primary who have never previously voted in a Primary – that’s almost 30% of those who voted. Who are these Prime Democrats and how are they different than other Democrats? 1 – Not surprisingly, they are younger. 12% of the Democrats whose first Primary was Clinton-Obama are under age 25 versus 6.5% of all Democrats and 39% are under 35 versus 24% of all Democrats. 2 – 62% of the new Primes are Women versus 59% of all Democrats, one reason, I guess, that Hillary won... 3 – I was surprised to see that the percentage of the new Primes who are Black was just a little over 30% - basically the same as the Black percentage of all Democrats. 4 – 27% of the Clinton-Obama Primary voters have not only never voted in a Primary but also did not in any previous election, including the 2004 or 2004 Presidential elections. 5 – Of course, some of these new Primary voters couldn’t have voted in the early primaries or elections because they are really new voters, as 9% have registered since the 2007 General Election and were not able to vote previously. What does this mean for the future of New York politics? That’s a big unknown. Will these Democrats, now that they have for the first time, engaged in a Primary, keep it up? How many will vote this year in whatever Primaries there are for Congress, State Legislature or Judge? Will many get involved in the 2009 Mayoral Primary? I and other involved in Democratic politics await the answers. Post new comment |