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Will Democrats Desert The Party In November?Most Democrats that I’ve spoken to are freaked out with fears that the long Presidential Primary campaign will split the Party and elect John McCain in November. A report by the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press is an example of why Democrats are worried. Here are some highlights –
The presidential primary season may prove to be a decisive factor in Campaign 2008, not only for who won, but for the way the winners emerged from the process in the eyes of the voters. John McCain was clearly helped, and Barack Obama was just as clearly hurt. McCain has improved his personal image, while making gains among two key groups whose support had eluded him last year, independents and men. In contrast, many people have come to dislike Obama personally, especially former supporters of Hillary Clinton. As a consequence, the Illinois Senator now trails McCain for the first time in a nationwide Pew Research Center survey, by 49%-43%. …. For the first time since the presidential race began to take shape more than a year ago, McCain has a lead among independents, 47%-39%. This marks a substantial gain for the Senator among these swing voters, who supported Obama by a 56%-36% margin before the primaries began. …. Moreover, McCain leads Obama by a 51%-44% margin among voters who say they backed Clinton during the primary process. Petty scary, don’t you think? But there’s one thing I didn’t mention. The Pew report is a little over 8 years old. It reported that Al Gore was helped and George W. Bush was hurt by that year’s Primary campaign and that many John McCain supporters and independent voters said that they were so angry at Bush that they were going to vote for Gore over Bush. I simply changed the names in the above - replacing Al Gore with John McCain, George W. Bush with Barack Obama and the 2000 John McCain with Hillary Clinton (and their titles). http://people-press.org/reports/display.php3?ReportID=43 Why’d I do this? It was not to play an April Fools’ joke. I did it to point out that a situation where the supporters on one Primary candidate get angry enough at the opposing candidate to consider deserting the Party is not something new or unique to this year. It happens quite often. Sometimes the wounds don’t heal. In 1972, many Democrats told pollsters during the Primary season that they would vote for Richard Nixon over George McGovern and they did. But in 2000, the anger at Bush by McCain supporters dissipated and most voted Republican. No t enough for Bush to actually win the popular vote but enough so that he could become President (but that’s another story). What will happen this year? Will it be like 1972 or 2000? I don’t know the answer but I do know it’s much too early for Democrats to panic and think all is lost because of the Primary campaign. As President Clinton said over the weekend, people should just “chill out.” The Democrats will come together.
![]() As long as the nominee soothes the economic fears of voters, democrats will all come together after the convention.
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Rock is right... The Republicans are "together" early in the process with probably the best candidate they had. But like all the others (except Ron Paul), McCain has pledged to continue all the policies of Dubya's including the never-ending war, making tax cuts for the rich permanent, and fixing the economy by not doing anything to help average people, that the American public is against. Assuming it's all over and Hillary is the nominee (I can dream can't I--really Barack would get my full support) by July 1 (and it will be over by July 1), that will give the Democrats and the majority of independents sick of Republican rule 4 months to get over their candidate not winning. The other thing people keep forgetting here, is that in primary politics, there's often been no clear choice by April 1. This primary season was incredibly frontloaded this time around. Four months to show how incredibly awful President McCain will be is PLENTY of time. You forgot to mention that Gore won the popular vote, and only lost the electorial college because he lost his home state. That is not going to happen with McCain. Having lived all over this country, I think Hillary could beat McCain. (I am a McCain supporter). I thought Barack could beat McCain a month ago, but the public hates the liberal media, and that they have so coddled Obama, the preferential treatment will cause a backlash. There is so much out there on Barack, that even guilty white liberals might take a second look. I gotta say that I really don't care which Dem wins the nomination (although I prefer Obama). Truth is that they're both great candidates and I will vote for either one - and I damn sure won't vote for any goddamn Republican, especially a war-loving old dude like McCain!
You may or may not be right. Time will tell. But let me point out a few things that might be different this time. First, unlike Gore, McCain has alot of independant cred. My brother, for instance, is torn between Obama and McCain. Policy-wise, the two men could not be more different, and my brother is much closer to obama politically than mccain. But he just likes him as a person. Second, this dem fight is nasty in a way that the mccain-Bush fight never was. Jeremiah Wright is an out-and-out racist and Obama's association with him is damning. And meanwhile, if Hillary takes it, then you will have many black people feeling that the racist dem party stole the nod from obama. I guess what i am getting there is that there is an identity politics component here that is deepening the poison. i am not sure both sides in the dem primary would see a victory by the other as fair and acceptable. Further, we are very likely not to see a consession until the convention, and therefore, there is a good chance the other candidate will not give a show of party unity, as needed. for instance, if hillary convinces the super delegates to give it to her, will obama be in any mood to endorse her? And Hillary is rightfully called the terminator, in the sense that she doesn't give up, ever. And besides you have to understand that there is a bargain in the clinton marriage: she puts up with his sh*t in return for political gain. If she loses this, then it will mean she went through all that public humiliaion for nothing. That's gotta be a bitter pill to swallow. No, there is a deeper nastiness here in this fight than you saw in 2000 between Bush and McCain. Blacks and academic diehard liberals will support Hillary. They always march in lock-step, but Hispanics and other blue collar democrats will abandon Obama in enough numbers to easily elect McCain.
Anonymous talks about how there is "so much out there on Barack" that it will derail his general election effort. If that is the case, how come it has not derailed him in the primary campaign? As to my own political affiliation: I am a Republican who supported Romney as the best of a poor lot, but I am so horrified at the prospect of a McCain Presidency that I will be enthusiastically voting for Obama in November. By the way: To get a more complete picture of John McCain, don't just wallow in the media love affair with the guy but read the book "McCain, the Myth of a Maverick". I've always been an Independent, and I've almost always voted for Democrats. This time around, I started out with a favorable impression of Obama, but the more time has gone on the less I like him. In fact, if I were voting Dem this time I'd definitely go with Hillary. Sure she's a liar, but it turns out that he is too. Sure she's had sleazy friends, but it turns out he is too. Sure she's done influence peddling and real estate deals that should be (or are) illegal, but it turns out he has too. Sure her philandering husband can't keep his pants shut, but then his hateful corporate welfare queen wife can't keep her mouth shut. Thank god the Republicans (despite their most valiant efforts) to cough up a likable candidate who'll be easy to vote for. Now I can just watch the rich political pageant of the Dems and enjoy the show. "BJ" Clinton has been disbarred, impeached and disgraced. He has forfeited the privilege of being called "President Clinton". Luckily, though, he retains the influence to destroy the Democratic Party's chances in this year's election.
And bear in mind that on the day Bill Clinton clinched the nomination in '92, he was polling in third -- behind both G.W.H. Bush and Ross Perot.
Why are we all so intently focused on picking apart the candidates' comments and personal affiliations? The only thing that should matter in choosing a leader is whether or not they will make a good one. We need someone in the Oval Office who will run this country with compassion, courage, and wisdom. Unfortunately, the only things anyone wants to talk about are banal, trivial, and downright insulting to the average American's intelligence. Can we at least try to focus on the important issues? The economy, health care, and the war in the Middle East top the list of concerns for most voters. In spite of that, these three issues have been all but ignored by the pundits for at least the last month. Everyone is yammering on about who Obama's pastor is and where Clinton's real estate interests are. All politicians have skeletons in the closet. All of them have lied to someone at some time. And each and every one of them proves to have at least one really big wart. What matters is the direction the U.S. is taking, and will take in the next four years. Post new comment |