Jerry Skurnik's blog

There's Science And Then There's Science!

This week, the Wall Street Journal’s John Fund, wrote a column attacking the Obama Administration for supposedly trying to politicize the census at the expense of science.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123423384887066377.html

Fund wrote – President Obama said in his inaugural address that he planned to "restore science to its rightful place" in government. That's a worthy goal. But statisticians at the Commerce Department didn't think it would mean having the director of next year's Census report directly to the White House rather than to the Commerce secretary, as is customary. "There's only one reason to have that high level of White House involvement," a career professional at the Census Bureau tells me. "And it's called politics, not science."



The Spirit Of The Law?

Friday’s New York Times reports that Comptroller Bill Thompson and Congressman Anthony Weiner have raised money from limited liability corporations and partnerships despite the law enacted by the City Council banning these businesses from contributing to City candidates.

 

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/13/nyregion/13donations.html?ref=nyregion



Setting The Record Straight On Gillibrand's Father

In the coverage of the appointment of new Senator Gillibrand, a number of media outlets (and Wikipedia) have gotten at least fact wrong.

They have described Gillibrand’s father, Douglas Rutnik, as a Republican lobbyist.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kirsten_Gillibrand

http://swampland.blogs.time.com/2009/01/23/kirstin-gillibrand/

He is a lobbyist but he’s a registered Democrat.

Here’s Rutnik’s voter information from the Prime New York voter file (I removed some information for privacy concerns)
First name DOUGLAS Initial P Last name RUTNIK Suffix (jr,sr,etc) Gender (M or F) M City SCHENECTADY State NY Zipcode 12309 Phone number NOT FOUND Affiliation D Precinct 01 06 00014



The Internet In The 2008 Campaign

 



NY Minor Parties in 2008

At the start of every election season in New York, there is much talk among pols and the press about which major Party candidates the minor Parties (Independence, Conservative, Working Families) will cross-endorse in the few tightly contested races for Congress and State Legislature.



The Latest Republican "Silver Bullet"

In October, I poked some fun at the Wall Street Journal Editorial Board for writing that the victory (with 38% of the vote) of the Canadian Conservative Party was some kind of a blueprint for the Republicans in the U.S. to win.



Joe Gentili Memorial

There will be a Memorial Service for Joe Gentili on Wednesday evening, December 3rd from 6 to 8 PM.

Joe was a one of the most active and effective leaders of the Brooklyn Republican Party for many years and was a top official of the Board of Elections. Joe was gruff at times but underneath was a real good guy and will be missed.

The service will be held in the Seminar Room of Trinity Church, 74 Trinity Place, 2nd floor, just north of Rector Street, in lower Manhattan. This location is near all major transit lines, and the R train at Rector Street is closest.

Anyone who knew Joe is invited to share your favorite Joe Gentili stories. Colorful language is encouraged and expected, as Joe would have insisted.



History Lessons

The possible appointment of Senator Hillary Clinton as Secretary of State has spurred speculation about whom Governor Paterson might appoint to replace her.

Some have suggested Paterson appoint himself to the post.

If Clinton does leave the Senate, I hope Governor Paterson and his advisers review what happened to governors in other states when they did that. It’s not a pretty picture.

The following was compiled by Ken Rudin of NPR when he was at the Washington Post;

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/campaigns/junkie/archive/junkie080699.htm

Montana, 1933 – Sen. Thomas Walsh (D) died. Gov. John Erickson (D) appointed self, lost 1934 primary.
Kentucky, 1939 – Sen. Marvel Logan (D) died. Gov. Happy Chandler (D) appointed self, won elections in 1940 and 1942.
Nevada, 1945 – Sen. James Scrugham (D) died. Gov. Edward Carville (D) appointed self, lost 1946 primary.
Idaho, 1945 – Sen. John Thomas (R) died. Gov. Charles Gossett (D) appointed self, lost 1946 primary.
Wyoming, 1960 – Sen.-elect Keith Thomson (R) died. Gov. John J. Hickey (D) appointed self, lost 1962 election.
New Mexico, 1962 – Sen. Dennis Chavez (D) died. Gov. Edwin Mechem (R) appointed self, lost 1964 election.
Oklahoma, 1963 – Sen. Robert Kerr (D) died. Gov. J. Howard Edmondson (D) appointed self, lost 1964 primary.
South Carolina, 1965 – Sen. Olin Johnston (D) died. Gov. Donald Russell (D) appointed self, lost 1966 primary.
Minnesota, 1977 – Sen. Walter Mondale (D) elected vice president. Gov. Wendell Anderson (D) appointed self, lost 1978 election.



Exit Poll Tidbits

While most people who examine exit polls focus on what percentage of each group votes for which candidate, I’m more interested in what the polls tell us who voted not who they voted for.

Here’s some of what can be gleamed from this year’s exit poll in New York State.

54% of the voters were women.

71% were White, 17% Black, 6% Hispanic, 3% Asian.

Broken down by age, under 25 = 12%, 25-29 = 10%, 30-39 = 17%, 40-49 = 22%, 50-64 = 27% and 65+ = 11%.

Annual income breaks this way – under $15,000 = 6%, $15-$30,000 = 10%, $30-$50,000 = 16%, $50-$75,000 = 22%, $75-$100,000 = 13%, $100-$150,000 = 17%, $150-$200,000 = 8% and $200,000 or more = 9%.



Not So Important, After All

Now that the Presidential Election is over, I thought it would be a good idea to recall some things that will soon vanish in the media memory hole.

In no particular order, here are some stories that the pundits and pols thought were really, really important at some time in the last two years. I doubt even Chris Mathews would now claim that these affected many voters at all.

Moveon.org’s ad about General Betrayus

Hispanics refusal to vote for a Black candidate

The growing number of independent voters who want to vote for a Third Party candidate

Barack Obama’s bowling score



Guest Columnist On Real Voter Fraud

An old friend of mine, journalist Jim Sleeper, read the recent stories in the NY papers about the Mayor & Board of Elections officials arguing about how ready we are for Election Day.

As a result, Jim posted a remembrance of an unbelievable but true scandal at the BOE in 1982 that Jim was instrumental in exposing.

He and I both think Room 8 readers will appreciate reading about it, so with his permission, I’m posting it here –

http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/10/31/treat_or_trick_elections_offic/index.php

Talking Points Memo Café

October 31, 2008



Pulitzer Prize Winner Needs A Fact Checker

Charles Krauthammer, the Pulitzer Prize winning columnist apparently uses the same incompetent researchers as William Kristol.

In his Halloween column, Krauthammer tries to scare voters about Barack Obama.

http://www.nydailynews.com/opinions/2008/10/31/2008-10-31_beware_the_morning_after_barack_obama_wo.html

Among the scary things that Krauthammer says Obama will impose on the country of dupes who won’t vote the way Krauthammer wants –

"The so-called Fairness Doctrine - a project of Nancy Pelosi and leading Democratic senators - a Hugo Chavez-style travesty designed to abolish conservative talk radio."



Winning By Losing?

I am often asked by potential long shot candidates whether they should run if they don’t have much of a chance at winning. My answer is that there’s nothing wrong with running and losing as long as you can afford it both financially and emotionally.

I feel that way because while people in politics and the media often say that a losing race hurts a candidate’s chances for future success, I don’t think many voters feel that way. And running any political race, even a losing one, usually makes you a better candidate in any future campaigns.

Just look at the three most powerful elected officials in New York State government; Governor David Paterson, State Senate Majority Leader Dean Skelos and Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver. All have lost elections before assuming their present jobs – Paterson for Public Advocate, Skelos for State Senate and Silver for City Council.



A Minor Correction To Gatemouth

Gatemouth’s commentary on the two Sarahs repeated an “urban legend” about the 2004 campaign that was created when DC pundits still thought Karl Rove was a genius.

http://www.r8ny.com/blog/gatemouth/two_schmuels_for_sister_sarah.html

Gatemouth wrote – “In 2004, there was virtually no effort made by Republicans to attract black voters to George W. Bush, and as a result he got virtually none. The one exception was in Ohio, where helped by the presence on the ballot of an anti-gay marriage initiative, Republicans did undertake such efforts, and Bush managed an eye-popping 25%, which alone may have deprived John Kerry of the White House.”



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