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How to lose two of the most important political offices in the country with one bad decisionLet’s start with the assumption that it’s Gillibrand. As shown by my post yesterday, political analysis can get stale very quickly (like in 5 minutes) based on reality. So the Governor chooses a gay-marriage opposing, gun-loving, blue dog Democrat as the next Senator from New York. You know what’s great about Blue Dog Democrats? They’re good at taking Republican districts, but bad at holding on to Democratic bases. In 2010, Blue Dog Gillibrand will have to run for reelection in the dichotomy that is New York State. She will have to ingratiate herself to liberal/progressive (and pro gay marriage and anti gun) New York City while continuing to charm those upstate Republicans to keep voting for her. It won’t work. Here’s why; Paterson has put chum in the water for the Republican sharks. He’s given them a DINO/Lite-Republican to go up against. Think about this, Gillibrand won her district because of the massive incompetency and personal problems of John Sweeney. When faced with a real Republican like Peter King, who will undoubtedly now run against her in 2010, those same Republican constituents who voted to put her in Congress are now faced with a real Republican option that is much more in line with their party beliefs. If faced with the Real Deal Republican (King) or the Republican-in-Democrat’s clothing (Gillibrand), for whom do you think that Republicans will vote? If I were a Republican, I’d vote for King. Add to that the fact that Gillibrand is completely unknown to the 2.8 Million people who live on Long Island. This is 2.8 Million people that know King and who for the most part like King. My prediction is that King takes Nassau and Suffolk at least 65-35%. But what about New York City? NYC is the Democratic stronghold and is necessary for any Democrat to overwhelmingly win NYC in order to win statewide office. When faced with the choice of bad or worse, my prediction is that NYC voters will go with Neither/None of the Above and simply not turn out to vote or skip that column. Think about this, Gillibrand is already a loser with the LGBT community, she’s a loser with the anti-gun community, and she’s a loser (see a pattern here) on immigration (bye bye Latinos). Add to that that 2010 is an off-year election and turnout is naturally going to be lower, and I don’t see enough NYC Democrats coming out to vote for a candidate that fundamentally does not share their beliefs. So far I’m basing my analysis on her philosophy and positions. I haven’t even gone into negative campaigning based on her father using his influence with Pataki and Bruno to enrich himself or some of the other skeletons that are hidden in her closet. So in my humble opinion, she loses Upstate to a real Republican, she loses Long Island to the native son, and she is not able to pull out enough NYC votes to compensate for the two. What does that mean, say hello in 2011 to your new Senator, Peter King. So that’s my prediction for Senate, but here’s why I think that this poor selection might also cost Paterson his Governorship; First, I think that this entire disaster of a process has drastically weakened the Governor. By portraying himself as insecure, immature, fickle, and petty, Paterson has demonstrated the weaknesses that everyone who knew him as Senator knew existed. The honeymoon is over folks. Paterson has demonstrated that he is not a real leader and that his personality faults make him someone who is unreliable. That said, take Paterson/Gillibrand and put them up against Giuliani/King. Now honestly, putting partisanship out of the way, who wins that matchup? I’m putting my money on the elephants. And that, ladies and gentlemen, is how you lose a Senate seat and Governorship in one fell swoop.
rudy giuliani has never won an election in the blog era. i know that i look forward to him running. his resume, current business and lifestyle is not equipped to handle this medium. apart from that, his mere presence alone may turn out the nyc dem base. especially when all that giuliani sewage starts flowing. and most of it will NOT play upstate. The democratic contenders for the Senate race are already lining up. I doubt that Gillibrand will be on the ballot in November 2010. After this appointment, it is unlikely that Paterson will be there either. "If Paterson rewards this weakness by still appointing Caroline, then Paterson and Caroline both have to go in 2010 and I will begin immediately banging the drums for an Andrew Cuomo primary for Governor."
I'm generally more interested in what the oligarchies are doing to us then the hierarcy among them. But just for the record, what should the guy have done?
The question is whether you accept as legitimate the issue of having no significant officeholders from Upstate NY. If you do, the guy was in a box. If you don't, there were other choices. But I doubt if Gillibrand is in a primary she can win. Carolyn McCarthy has already stated that she will primary Gillbrand based on her NRA membership and I'm sure in the weeks that follow there will be others mulling this over too. Paterson will not have Guiliani to run against because Guiliani will also be in a primary and he'll lose that because NYC won't vote for him even the Republicans. Paterson will have at least 1 primary challenger and it will probably be Cuomo who will beat him and then win against any Republican in the general.
Larry, My preferred candidate this entire process was Tom Suozzi. Experience dealing with financial crisis, CPA/JD, good fundraiser and politician. If we're focusing on upstate candidates, I would have preferred Byron Brown. A real Democrat who would add much needed diversity in D.C. and could have very strong voter turnout in Buffalo and New York City in 2010. The only drawback would have been that Paterson would have been obviously overshadowed as the second best African-American politician in New York if he had picked Brown. KG + WFp = CG (where CG = Charlie Goodell) Meanwhile, Old Kinderhook - John Faso - will rise again. Just when the Democratic Party thought he'd driven a garlic-laden stake through his own heart, the coffin creaks open. One would think that Treadwell's significant investment in the 2008 campaign would make him a prohibitive favorite and keep others away from the special. If the GOP can't even muster a modicum of party discipline, just what does it have left? And of course, there's old Comb Tracks, Jim Tedisco, angling his way into the race. Will someone please get him back on his meds? He's currently Assembly Minority Leader - a compact, contiguous district where he's regarded as a little tin god; nice stipend; nice office; all the scenery he can chew; and, absolutely no pressure on him to displace the Majority. If he makes it to Washington, he'll be Congressman #435, in the minority, with a huge district in which he's generally unknown and which will likely evaporate in the next reapportionment. Perhaps it's the bright lights of Washington media drawing this moth-eaten hack to a flame. Hannity? Beck? Hardball? I think not. No matter how unhinged Comb Tracks might be, Congress has at least a dozen Members who can out-whacko him before brushing their teeth in the morning. The best Tedisco could ever hope for is to be interviewed by Wyatt Cenac for a second-segment slot on The Daily Show. Locally, Tonko will be sure to swallow up all the newsprint and TV time with his ability to announce his participation in actual governmental events like the passage of legislation and the issuance of grants. Truly, Comb Tracks has reached his level of incompetence - unless, of course, he's getting a push from within his own conference. Cui bono? Post new comment |
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I have to say I strongly agree with this piece.
As much as I think Gillibrand will move to the left as part of her promise to Patterson, it won't be enough to win over the left by 2010.