As everyone is by now aware, with Hillary Clinton accepting President-Elect Obama’s nomination to Secretary of State (dumb move Hillary – you should’ve declined and stayed in the Senate), Governor David Paterson has the constitutional duty to appoint the new Senator from New York to replace her.

Many names have been mentioned.  Some are very good (Cuomo, Lowey, Nadler, Byron Brown) and some are wishful thinking (the rest of the Congressional delegation).

Out of all of these names, three candidates really stand out:  Andrew Cuomo, Byron Brown (I’m a big Byron Brown fan), and my pick, Thomas Suozzi.

If you’re reading this site, then you should have some idea of how politicians operate.  Paterson will privately select the person who will end up being most beneficial to his aspirations, while publicly proclaiming that the new Senator is without a doubt the most qualified person for the job.  Tom Suozzi gives Paterson the ability to do both.

First, Suozzi can give Paterson an advantage that no other candidate can – winning Long Island.  For the first time ever, Dems outnumber Reps in Nassau County and the County Execs and County Legislatures in both counties have Dem majorities.  That said, I can almost guarantee that if Giuliani (or even Peter King) is the Rep candidate for Governor in 2010, he will beat Paterson in both Nassau and Suffolk by a 2-1 margin.  Do not forget that Long Island remains one of the most segregated areas in the entire United States, with minorities concentrated in a few communities and the rest of the Island consisting of NIMBY center-right whites that bow to the god of Property Values (or in other words, no minorities in my neighborhood).  This is the place where Elmont, Hempstead, Wyandanch, Uniondale, Freeport, etc., etc., suffered from “White Flight” as soon as two or three minority families moved into the neighborhood.  This is the place where just three weeks ago, seven teenagers were arrested for killing a Hispanic resident in a local tradition gone too far named “Beaner Jumping” (the most amazing part of this story is the overwhelming show of support by the community for the teenagers).  This is a place that THRIVES on homogeneity and is deathly afraid of change. With this background, it is highly doubtful that a blind, African-American governor would come close to defeating someone just like them, a Catholic Irish/Italian who is tough on crime and who hates those who are different just as much as they do (e.g. Giuliani or King).

Someone like Suozzi on the 2010 ticket will go a long way towards allaying those fears.  Suozzi fits into the Irish/Italian Catholic mold that Long Islanders love, but without the fear mongering and scare tactics that have characterized the incumbencies of Giuliani, King, or even Suffolk County “DINO” Exec Steve Levy.  Suozzi’s achievements in balancing and stabilizing Nassau County’s financials have made him a local hero, even as the majority of the County has not noticed that he has made significant inroads into the growing majority population in the County.  Suozzi has pulled off a rare feat, being liked by fiscal conservatives, social liberals, white homeowners, minorities and almost everyone in between.  With Suozzi campaigning hard in Nassau for Paterson in 2010, the Governor may be able to break even on Long Island and therefore probably maintain his office based on his strength in New York City.

Many say that the same argument can be made for Cuomo (suburban Italian/Irish Catholic), and in large part, I agree.  However, let’s take a look at what happens if Cuomo is picked for the Senate seat.  His appointment would create a vacancy for Attorney General, which would be filled by Sheldon Silver and the Assembly Democrats, who in turn would probably select a sitting Assemblymember for the position.  The top candidate for that position would undoubtedly be Richard Brodsky from Westchester.  That would make Paterson’s 2010 ticket look like this: Paterson/X (Gov/Lt.Gov), Brodsky (AG), DiNapoli (Compt.), Schumer/Cuomo (Sen.).  If Suozzi were the pick, the slate would be Paterson/X, Cuomo, DiNapoli, Schumer/Suozzi.  In the second case, Paterson is still benefiting from Cuomo’s positives by having him run for reelection as AG, while adding a new source of votes in Suozzi.

Some argue that Cuomo has his eyes set on the Governor’s seat and might primary Paterson in 2010.  One would think that Cuomo learned his lesson in 2002 against Carl McCall and will not primary another minority Gubernatorial candidate, risking losing ALL support in NYC and thus losing the election.

Looking at the end game (2010 reelection), Suozzi provides the best options for Paterson to retain his seat and continue to increase the Democratic influence in New York.