The new Quinnipiac poll cited in the papers showing a large amount of support for Governor Spitzer say a lot of nothing. Of course Spitzer still has high ratings. He's only been in office for a month and the public is rightfully still behind him.

Those analyzing the poll are incorrectly assuming that Spitzer's high marks correlate to continuing support in his battle against the legislators. However, high marks for Spitzer and high marks for legislators are not mutually exclusive. Also, the method for judging statewide support for Silver, Bruno, or the legislature as a whole is also incorrect.

First, it is completely irrelevant what the public at large thinks of Shelly Silver or Joe Bruno. There are only two polls that matter for both of the legislative leaders, how popular are they in their district and how popular are they with their legislative colleagues who elect them as leader. These two constituencies are the only ones that Silver and Bruno care about. Everyone outside of the 64th Assembly District and outside of the Assembly Democratic Majority hates Sheldon Silver. Those people don't matter. Likewise, everyone outside of the 43rd Senate District and outside of the Senate Republican Majority hates Joe Bruno. Again, not one of those people matter.

Further, if you want to determine the amount of support for the legislature, you cannot simply ask whether the public as a whole is happy with the legislature. As I've said numerous times, everyone hates the legislature, but loves their legislator. To truly gauge how much support the legislature has, you must do individual polls by district and ask the registered voters in that district whether they are happy with their individual legislator. It would be interesting to see a poll on how popular Bill Magnarelli or George Latimer are in their district after the attacks by Spitzer and then compare those poll results with their vote results last November.

Spitzer had numerous ways to attempt to reform Albany. In my humble opinion, Spitzer's strategy to take over the Senate is extremely well-planned and will be extremely advantageous to the Governor. However, he could have continued his strategy to take over the Senate while using the Assembly as an ally (a position which the Assembly was willing to take at the beginning of the session). By luring the Assembly with honey instead of vinegar, Spitzer would have had the dictatorship he so desperately wants. Unfortunately, Spitzer's lack of vision and strategic missteps with the Comptroller vote has guaranteed that at least the next two years will be filled with deadlock and further fighting between the Executive and the Assembly.

As a result of that mistake, Spitzer is now forced to attempt to reform the Assembly in the only other way he can, by individually attacking each Assemblymember right on their turf, hoping that their constituency will turn against them, and will then vote them out in 2008. It will be an extremely difficult and probably futile campaign.

The only way to check the success or failure of this strategy is by polling individual districts and asking for the constituents' support of Magnarelli, Latimer, McEneny, Reilly, etc., after Spitzer savages them on their home turf. The statewide polls asking about support of Spitzer, support of the legislature, or support of Shelly Silver or Joe Bruno are worthless.