Last Year I posted two essays here on Room 8 on the topic of "actual crime" versus "perception of crime" and the media's portrayal of and impact on both. The current indicator of crime by the NYPD is the CompStat report, which tallies seven crimes weekly and does a comparative of these numbers in a variety of ways. These reports are readily available to the public via each police precinct's webpage, found here. Both my essays were in response to media reports claiming that East New York's 75th Precinct lead the city in crime, using nothing other than CompStat reports to make the claim. I used Room 8 to show that this conclusion is conjecture at best, because CompStat does not give enough statistical information to make this determination, and at worst, sophistry because it's well-known how incomplete the information is yet often still used as the de facto means of evaluating how safe a community is.

For example: the 75th Precinct has a population of approximately 185,000, and the 78th Precinct a population of approximately 55,000. Using nothing other than CompStat, the media compares all precincts side-by-side equally, and runs occasional stories that alway show the 75th Precinct as highest in crime citywide, despite the fact that, using the example above, the 78th Precinct has less than a third of the 75th Precinct's population. CompStat also doesn't take into account the square mileage of a precinct (important when considering deployment, especially in the outer boroughs) or vertical landscapes (important when considering Manhattan's deployment of resources), nor does it take into account each precinct's fixed, transient, and homeless populations, all important factors when doing a true analysis of crime in New York City.

I certainly have a personal bias for wanting to set the record straight or (at the very least) muddy the waters of how we currently report and view crime. I live and work in the area covered by the 75th Precinct, and recently was appointed chairman of Community Board 5's public safety committee. For years I've watched the media malign East New York and the 75th Precinct. We've been told year after year that we're the badlands. The point has been made for so long that most people, including many of my fellow East New Yorkers, truly believe that this is the most dangerous place to live in the city. That said, this essay seeks not to give the perception that ours is an incredibly safe community either. There's a great deal of work to be done here: Gang violence and gang recruiting are up, shootings and illegal handguns still plague the area, and even adjusted figures below still show that serious crime exists here. The same can be said however for many communities around the city, some that will surprise you when looking at the below tables.

One thing that CompStat allows for is comparing the percent of increase for each precinct compared to the previous year, and I present that below as well because it is a helpful tool in assessing crime in a community.

Below are the 2010 CompStat numbers for the top ten precincts for each crime (period ending 12/26/2010) by percentage of increase and my own per capita adjustments, as well as tallies for violent crime, non-violent crime, and total crime. Red highlights indicate the top ranking precinct for each table's information, and yellow denotes the 75th Precinct. There are two places you'll see an asterisk; this represents my best estimate since the previous year's number of crimes in that category was zero.

Murders, by Percent of Increase (2010 versus 2009)

Precinct	% Increase
30	600.0%
50	400.0%
25	333.3%
28	200.0%
13	200.0%
109	133.3%
114	125.0%
84	*120.0%
88	100.0%
34	100.0%

Note: the 75th Precinct ranks 25th in this category.

Murders, Per Capita

Precinct	Per Capita
26	34.12
73	31.64
81	25.04
25	22.08
77	19.78
42	17.50
40	17.04
75	16.32
67	15.69
113	15.45

Note: the 75th Precinct ranks 8th in this category.

Rape, by Percent of Increase (2010 versus 2009)

Precinct	% Increase
22	*600.0%
14	183.3%
20	175.0%
18	150.0%
5	150.0%
70	127.3%
81	118.2%
49	109.1%
88	100.0%
62	100.0%

Note: the 75th Precinct ranks 41st in this category.

Rape, Per Capita

Precinct	Per Capita
26	221.77
22	140.00
14	110.32
30	64.44
32	57.88
23	44.16
73	43.35
41	42.71
83	35.45
81	35.35

Note: the 75th Precinct ranks 13th in this category.

Robbery, by Percent of Increase (2010 versus 2009)

Precinct	% Increase
76	33.8%
50	26.9%
41	25.4%
103	25.3%
44	24.9%
30	24.8%
100	24.0%
77	23.8%
49	22.3%
83	21.9%

Note: the 75th Precinct ranks 20th in this category.

Robbery, Per Capita

Precinct	Per Capita
26	2951.21
14	1083.73
41	600.12
73	578.84
32	541.50
40	537.98
48	525.84
103	473.06
28	466.81
42	466.65

Note: the 75th Precinct ranks 16th in this category.

Assault, by Percent of Increase (2010 versus 2009)

Precinct	% Increase
19	36.8%
26	36.4%
77	35.3%
108	32.7%
111	30.0%
81	29.9%
69	25.0%
122	24.1%
68	22.8%
49	21.2%

Note: the 75th Precinct ranks 58th in this category.

Assault, Per Capita

Precinct	Per Capita
26	1791.20
14	1161.60
41	839.31
73	660.86
32	567.65
40	522.16
48	484.89
81	466.92
42	454.98
79	433.73

Note: the 75th Precinct ranks 14th in this category.

Burglary, by Percent of Increase (2010 versus 2009)

Precinct	% Increase
69	49.7%
26	38.6%
7	32.0%
113	29.4%
77	29.2%
101	21.8%
71	21.0%
109	17.4%
60	12.5%
63	11.7%

Note: the 75th Precinct ranks 18th in this category.

Burglary, Per Capita

Precinct	Per Capita
14	2225.86
26	1347.66
1	609.56
90	482.31
83	452.29
41	446.35
9	440.64
79	423.33
18	385.89
94	374.21

Note: the 75th Precinct ranks 30th in this category.

Grand Larceny, by Percent of Increase (2010 versus 2009)

Precinct	% Increase
22	57.5%
40	18.3%
33	17.7%
88	17.0%
81	16.7%
24	14.6%
5	12.2%
120	10.5%
72	9.5%
67	7.8%

Note: the 75th Precinct ranks 22nd in this category.

Grand Larceny, Per Capita

Precinct	Per Capita
14	14821.74
26	4503.58
1	3836.19
18	3676.35
10	2041.33
13	1745.21
6	1709.66
9	1529.99
22	1260.00
17	1078.21

Note: the 75th Precinct ranks 41st in this category.

Grand Larceny Auto, by Percent of Increase (2010 versus 2009)

Precinct	% Increase
25	47.9%
18	33.3%
104	23.6%
60	23.4%
90	22.2%
6	21.6%
94	20.8%
106	18.8%
61	18.5%
101	18.2%

Note: the 75th Precinct ranks 40th in this category.

Grand Larceny Auto, Per Capita

Precinct	Per Capita
26	443.53
106	253.00
47	240.14
100	231.99
94	226.08
104	217.59
49	213.18
113	213.04
102	202.67
105	195.63

Note: the 75th Precinct ranks 15th in this category.

Citywide: Violent Crime, by Percent of Increase (2010 versus 2009)

Precinct	% Increase
26	38.5%
76	31.1%
20	24.6%
69	24.1%
19	19.5%
81	18.4%
105	17.7%
70	16.9%
78	15.2%
30	15.1%

Note: the 75th Precinct ranks 12th in this category.

Citywide: Violent Crime, Per Capita

Precinct	Per Capita
48	4,998.29
122	2,355.64
115	1,490.69
6	1,314.69
110	1,181.97
66	1,103.96
104	1,043.76
46	968.30
34	920.51
72	889.66

Note: the 75th Precinct ranks 26th in this category.

Citywide: Non-violent Crime, by Percent of Increase (2010 versus 2009)

Precinct	% Increase
26	47.7%
75	12.3%
102	10.5%
63	9.1%
76	8.8%
28	7.2%
112	6.8%
45	6.6%
44	6.3%
68	6.2%

Note: the 75th Precinct ranks 2nd in this category.

Citywide: Non-violent Crime, Per Capita

Precinct	Per Capita
122	17,196.85
48	6,294.78
22	4,584.44
70	4,161.83
5	2,481.93
88	2,108.14
113	2,070.58
49	2,068.72
14	1,306.52
26	1,300.00

Note: the 75th Precinct ranks 13th in this category.

Citywide: Overall Crime, by Percent of Increase (2010 versus 2009)

Precinct	% Increase
22	42.11%
100	22.73%
77	18.10%
101	15.18%
110	12.87%
88	12.57%
24	12.35%
114	8.97%
25	7.81%
28	7.47%

Note: the 75th Precinct ranks 23rd in this category.

Citywide: Overall Crime, Per Capita

Precinct	Per Capita
14	7073.42
26	3991.81
73	2327.08
1	1890.72
81	1888.32
84	1887.41
79	1884.71
88	1851.21
90	1769.18
83	1731.54

Note: the 75th Precinct ranks 11th in this category.

Looking at the above tables you would never classify the 75th Precinct as the most crime-ridden area of the city. Beyond East New York: Is it fair for me to use transient and homeless estimates for the Central Park or Midtown South precincts? Do Manhattan precincts have an advantage because they're smaller in square mileage, or are they actually more challenged by a vertical landscape, tougher traffic conditions, and significant variance in transient population (particularly during the month of December)?

CompStat in its current form is not nearly enough. Why can't it include the population the precinct serves? Don't universities and the US Census Department sample communities? Can't they also sample transience (defined as people that are in an area temporarily, such as for recreation, work, shopping, or seeking government or professional services)? Aren't the homeless counted periodically and can't those estimates be included as well? Should overall crime per precinct be used as an indicator, or does it make sense to separate violent from non-violent crime (as I did above)?

Should we also have qualifiers? For example, my local precinct just received an additional 90 officers from the most recent graduating class of the police academy, plus an additional 70+ added to their fixed roster from personnel assigned there as part of temporary initiatives. Such an influx of personnel will likely result in a spike in arrests. Does this mean a crime wave has hit the East New York area? Without qualifiers, the public has no way of knowing this. Are other qualifiers needed, such as the number of persons returning to a community from incarceration (debatable, but the question needs to be asked)? How about policy changes that can affect the definition of a specific crime and thus the way it's reported?

My last question is controversial: Every ten years we go through reapportionment, and in the process most political district lines around the state are redrawn. Should police precinct lines also be redrawn? I know, this is far-fetched and too costly to consider seriously, but the question has to be asked since we treat CompStat as a standard when it is far from equitable and in the process misrepresents communities, both for better and for worse.

The city needs a better way to report crime.

I personally would like to see the following added to each precinct's CompStat reports:

• Fixed population (from the Census), as well as estimates for transient and homeless populations
• Per capita calculations based on the above point's numbers
• Shootings, gang-related crimes, bias crimes
• Noise complaints
• Some qualifiers (as described above)

It may be impossible to create a system of reporting that is truly indicative of crime in New York City, but at the very least, we can do better that what we have now, the incomplete CompStat reports, and as long as it's the sole reporting mechanisms, communities like mine will always suffer while others are undeservedly ranked as much safer. Something needs to be done because of the impact this has on homeownership, the local economy, and general perception of living in safety. The impact on the local economy is of greatest concern to me, as crime stats are always used by major retailers and developers when evaluating what communities they want to invest in.

I'd like to hear about how crime should be reported or if you think CompStat is enough, as well as any other thoughts on the matter of crime, perceptions of crime and the media. Thanks for reading.

Manny Burgos,
East New York, Brooklyn
"Más vale morir luchando, que vivir muriendo."

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