Post-Election Thoughts

On Election Day, there were 21 open Assembly seats, 12 Democratic and 9 GOP seats. On Tuesday, the Assembly GOP won 3 of 12 open Democratic seats (six noncompetitive races were in NYC), beat 4 Democratic incumbents and successfully defended all nine GOP open seats. On closer inspection, the Assembly GOP won half of the open seats outside of NYC and scored an upset in defeating Janelle Hyer-Spencer, a SI/Bklyn incumbent. They are on the verge of taking away the Democrats veto-proof majority. When the new session opens in January, there will be 23 new faces in the Assembly and up to twelve new senators.

The Senate GOP had 4 open seats and lost only one. As of Tuesday night, the Democrats had only flipped the Padavan seat in Queens. The four districts won by the GOP were marginally Democratic to begin with. This election cycle, Spitzer's largess and the Obama wave were the missing factors. Bet on an independent redistricting commission being championed by the GOP in both Houses. The official recount may change these figures.

Does Tuesday's results portend a major revival of the Republican Party in New York State? I don't think so. The results were likely due to local conditions. Voter anger over the MTA tax, a stagnant upstate economy and better executed GOTV plans are more likely reasons. The lack of success by the top of ticket is evidence that the GOP isn't ready for prime time. The stars of the party remain down ballot. Plus, the state still trends Democratic in the NYC metropolitan area. But we can't have a bifurcated state, that for all the Republican posturing, 52 counties are propped up by state aid financed by wealth transfers from NYC and its surrounding suburbs. Massive cuts in the public workforce will further cripple the ailing upstate economy.

The next adminstration will need bipartisan cooperation to implement solutions that go against the tide of deindustrialization and ideological reflex. Green building technology is pointless, if the "rent is too damn high" and unemployment remains high. Reductions in business taxes makes sense to those currently paying to those taxes. Those reductions in state tax revenues, however, lead to deferred road and bridge maintenance which will cost businesses more money getting their products to market or their workers to work. It seems that game theory will be more appropriate in resolving some issues than zero-based budgeting or performance based budgeting. At this point, I don't know what Tuesday's results portend, other than neither party has a handle on how best to solve our state's deep economic problems.



jroman's picture
Submitted by jroman on Tue, 01/04/2011 - 2:33pm.

btw, on a side note: thanks for your on-going support for MMA.

 

Jose Roman



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