Labor Day and the Primary in New York State have passed and the first polls at the traditional beginning of the General Election season are in.  Truth be told, most of the nation’s local, state and federal elections were decided long ago and are just going through the motions—reapportionment, the nature of media markets, incumbent advantages and corrupt process have made most elections nominal.  And there are good public servants who go unchallenged because they are just that, good public servants who deserve being returned to office—repeatedly.  Now that the silly season in politics is over, what does the beginning of the fall season look like?

In New York State a new Siena College poll out today, Spitzer has a 51 point lead, Hevesi beats “Chris Who” by 33 points, Hillary is up 28 points over her opponent, and Cuomo, fresh from a smartly run primary campaign, is up 17 points over the Republican.  Callaghan, who is the Republican running for Comptroller, is at 23% in a race that has undecided at 21%, he is doing better lower down on ballot than Faso, the Republican running for Governor, who gets only 21% in a contest with 8% of voter undecided (Spitzer even has an 8-point lead among Republican voters).  So Pirro is likely to be dragged down to defeat by her pro-life running mates.

As population and ideology shifts move the state’s electorate to a deeper blue and to the left, the Conservative Party looks like it is leading the Republican Party to a base vote at below a quarter of the electorate.  Yet the national Democrats have not found any of their challengers to House Republicans worthy of financial support and there are very few real contested state legislative races.  Quick, name two.

Nationally a new Pew Poll headline reads “Democrats Hold Solid Lead; Strong Anti-Incumbent, Anti-Bush Mood.”  The Democrats dominate on issues.  In the questions that ask who would do a better job on an issue Democrats or Republicans, Democrats score leads of 38-points on the environment, 24-points on health-care, 20-points on energy policy, 18-points on education, 14-points on the economy and 11-points on abortion. 

The Republicans lead only on terrorism with a 9 point lead.  The Democrats also have a 7-point lead on the war in Iraq.

The Democratic leadership, however, has effectively banned a conversation about issues like guns, gay rights and a woman’s right to choose (even though Republicans are down 2-points on morality and down 3-points on gay rights against Democrats); they have instead chosen to nationalize the election about Bush and his failures in the Iraq war, while the Republican leadership is framing the election on terrorism and working on their turnout problem.

One could only wonder how many Republican seats would be competitive if the Democrats framed the election about what voters think Democrats would do a better job on, since voters think the country is going in the wrong direction by a margin of two to one under Republican control, in virtually every poll.  Hopefully individual candidates will do a better job on framing their message than party leaders.

The thing most on the mind of voters is gas prices at 75%, but that should change as the season wears on.  Next are: the economy, education and war tied at 54%; then health care at 53%—clearly the four issues that would work for the Democrats.  Terrorism at 47% is below the mid-point, but it scores high with conservative Republicans at 84% and moderate/liberal Republicans 78% who think we are winning the war on terrorism.  Clearly the Republicans focusing on this issue could boost turnout for their side.

If the election were about the war, things would go better for the Democrats, but there is a mixed reaction on the part of voters about specifics.  While 25% of voters would vote for a candidate who is in favor of “immediate withdrawal” fully 37% would vote against them; “setting a timetable” for 31% and against 23%; and “staying as long as it takes” 32% for and 28% against.

But is anyone listening?  Pew found that among the top news stories voters are watching closely, the war in Iraq received 33% while the death of the ‘croc hunter’ received 30%.  Meanwhile, state and local races tied with the JonBenet Ramsey case at 16% interest each.

Most handicappers now give the Democrats a bigger advantage with predictions running at picking up seats but not control in the Senate, picking up a few governor seats (a lot of Republican incumbent governors are term limited) and gaining control in the House with possibly 15 to 20 gained and one or two lost by the Democrats.  Meanwhile, here in New York, three Republican House members are in the top fifty competitive races nationally.  Sue Kelley (New York 19) is for the first time on the list squeaking in at number 49; the open seat (New York 24) is more competitive, moving from number 17 to 14; but the Sweeney seat (New York 20) initially moved off the top 25 competitive races to number 32 and is now down to 35.

With all four statewide Democrats doing so well, shouldn’t more down ballot races be competitive?  Does the Conservative Party also have undue influence with state and county Democratic leaders?  Will women pick up one seat in the House only to lose another?  More later.