The Brennan Center Boiler Room?

I track state and local government developments throughout the US for the municipal bond industry. So in the course of my work, I've pretty much seen it all--everything from Kwame Fitzpatrick texting his way into a Michigan jail cell to the disappearance of the San Diego pension fund to corrupt Alabama politicians run amok with derivatives.  As such, I've always been skeptically intrigued with the Brennan Center's determination that New York owns the most dysfunctional government in the US. But, until now, I just never got around to pursuing the nuts and bolts of how it came to that infamous conclusion.

I initially believed that it would be a pretty straightforward thing to get this methodology--especially since the Brennan Center has just issued an updated report. I had no idea that it may turn into some kind of war of attrition and blog censorship.

But it looks like it's going that way.

In a nutshell, here's what I asked the Brennan Center in which it has been unwilling to respond to and unwilling to publish in the comments section of its blog:


Sprite 6


I don't believe my comment/question is off-topic, and is in any conceivable way offensive or trollish.  And I read that others have asked similarly fundamental questions and gotten themselves censored from the Brennan Center's ReformNY blog as well. It goes without saying that they didn't get a response either.

It's my understanding that the Brennan Center's raison de existence stems from freeing New Yorkers from the most "dysfunctional" legislature in the country. Maybe this conclusion is warranted, maybe it isn't.  All I'd like to know is how the Brennan Center got to that conclusion. I guess I originally assumed that they--being vociferous advocates of open government and free speech--would post my question and respond by saying something simple like: "See Table D of our 2004 report." Or maybe something about data, means and standard deviations. Or, at worst, something cute which if translated reads: "Well, if you look carefully, we never really said that."

So why am I beginning to suspect that this emperor has no clothes? Like none whatsoever.

Or that its 'supporting research' was/is nothing but a boiler room operation?

If anybody out there can provide any insight into any of this please drop me a clue in the comment section.

John Ross



Submitted by Matt (not verified) on Mon, 01/12/2009 - 4:25pm.

They are probably ignoring you because it doesn't appear as though you actually read the report. 

They include 95 source citations and a two page description of their research methodology (pg 32 + 33).

Here's the direct link to the report that you've omitted from your posting:

http://brennan.3cdn.net/ec21bc2f8e70edb787_j9m6b0k88.pdf


Submitted by NGD on Mon, 01/12/2009 - 6:43pm.

No, the Brennan Center is probably ignoring the request because they're not stupid enough to offer up the pile of triviality you just have.  Because then they would look like idiots.  My guess is that they preferred not to.

Here's a little homework challenge, Matthew. Dig through the immaterial you've just regurgitated and provide just one example of the ordinal quantitative mechanics the Brennan Center professes to employ.

Maybe something along the lines of "We ranked Iowa number 17 because it scored high in openess, middling in process, but low in chamber rules. Virginia came in number 18 because..." 

See what I'm driving at here, Matthew?

You can use any nationwide ranking as your guide, but preferably one that actually ranks something nationwide.  Maybe "Best Places to Live in America" or "America's Best Law Schools" Maybe the NCAA basketball Top 25.  See what I'm getting at here, Matthew?

If the Brennan Center were to submit this as a serious piece of academic research, they'd be laughed at by the journal referees.  And I think they know this.  (They also know that there's no shortage of gullible individuals out there like yourself to stick up for them when they can't.)


Submitted by Matt (not verified) on Mon, 01/12/2009 - 11:13pm.

 

Where exactly in the report does the Brennan Center conclude: 


"New York owns the most dysfunctional government in the U.S."as you say?  

 

Are you sure you read it?   

 

You seem to be ranting against something that isn't there. 

 


Submitted by NGD on Tue, 01/13/2009 - 1:23pm.

Now ask yourself this simple question: Why didn't the Brennan Center just post something similar on their blog when I asked them my question?  (Or even allow the question to be posted on their blog?)

Hint: I'd put a big crack in their rhetorical pyramid scheme.


Submitted by Larry Littlefield on Wed, 01/14/2009 - 6:20pm.
"I track state and local government developments throughout the US for the municipal bond industry."

How come, after rating municipalities lower than corporations despite a much lower rate of default for years, the rating agencies are now increasing the ratings of state and local governments even though a massive share are about to go bust due to pension and retiree health care obligations?

(If they don't go bust, their taxes will be so high and services so poor that residents and businesses will flee, and then they will go bust anyway).

Here in NY, we've go more off balance sheet debts than Enron, and NJ is worse.

Submitted by NGD on Wed, 01/14/2009 - 8:02pm.

larry,

you're really not gonna like what i'm about to post tomorrow!

but seriously, you ask serious and legitimate questions on "the system." and i agree with you, there's an awful lot wrong there.  But the big eff ups, believe it or not, have not ocurred in new york.

some of this stuff will make your jaw drop.

there's a really good bloomberg piece on the rating agencies of about a month or two ago that'll i'll try and dig up for you.  it does a much better job of conveying the depth of the problem than i ever can.

 


Submitted by Larry Littlefield on Thu, 01/15/2009 - 7:11am.
I follow this stuff more closely than you might expect. CDO-squared with a triple A? THAT made my jaw drop. Estimated value -- zero.

Getting back to municipals, the only way I see to an even moderate disaster is a national health care finance system that lifts the cost of retiree health care off the backs of local governments. But the unions would never allow it, because it mean the same health care for everyone else, that they would have to help pay for in taxes, as for them.

At some point there is going to be a collapse. I hold no munis, and am in favor of bankruptcies as a process in which taxpayers and public service recipients count for at least a little.

Submitted by NGD on Thu, 01/15/2009 - 9:45am.

...to a post i did on that bloomberg article on the rating agencies : http://www.nextgendemsblog.com/blog/2008/10/index.html

it's all tied together.


Submitted by Matt (not verified) on Wed, 04/08/2009 - 2:29pm.

http://www.nydailynews.com/ny_local/2009/04/07/2009-04-07_3_out_of_4_new_yorkers_think_albanys_a_d.html

BY Kenneth Lovett
DAILY NEWS ALBANY BUREAU CHIEF

46% of New Yorkers blame legislators for the mess in Albany.

The Quinnipiac University poll said 71% says it doesn't work, while just 23% think it functions well.

The feeling of dysfunction - just outlined in the Daily News in a five-part series called "State of Shame" cuts across party lines, race and gender.

Nearly 80% of Republicans, 62% of Democrats and 77% of independents labeled New York's state government dysfunctional.

About three-quarters of men, 68% of women, 74% of whites, 56% of blacks, 80% of upstaters and 62% of those in New York City agree.

"Those numbers are exceptionally high," said Quinnipiac poll director Maurice Carroll. "What it says is people don't think they're doing a good job.

"When it's all put together, this place ain't well regarded."

New Yorkers are split as of who's most to blame, the poll said.

Twenty-one percent blame Gov. Paterson, 25% legislative Democrats, 21% legislative Republicans and 33% don't know.

The poll found that by a 51% to 26% margin, New Yorkers believe major decisions are still made by the governor and legislative leaders with little input from rank-and-file lawmakers.

Among the causes of dysfunction cited in the Daily News series were widespread corruption, a lack of transparency, legislative leaders who control the process, a weak committee system and bills rushed through with little public airing.

"Your series was very clear that this place isn't run very well and it isn't," Carroll said. "Today's poll makes it clear that people think Albany could use a little fixing."

Overall, voters disapprove of the new $132 billion state budget by a 60% to 16% margin. Republicans oppose it by the largest measure (72%) while even 52% of Democrats disapprove.

Nearly two-thirds called it a "business as usual" budget compared to 26% who said Paterson and the Legislature showed courage in making unpopular decisions.

The poll found 49% defined the new budget's spending increases as "wasteful," while 39% said such hikes were needed to stimulate the economy in tough times.

The budget adopted last week raises spending by $10.5 billion, or 8.7% as well as taxes and fees by up to $8 billion, half of which comes from the income tax hikes.

By a 70% to 22% margin, New Yorkers opposed Paterson and the legislative Democrats decision to eliminate a STAR property tax rebate program in order to save $1.7 billion.

The poll found New Yorkers approve of the decision to raise state income tax rates on families making more than $300,000 per year by a 64% to 32% margin.

And by a wide margin, 59-37%, they disagree with critics like Rush Limbaugh and Donald Trump who have said the rich will leave the state because of the income tax hikes.

"Rush Limbaugh says he will (leave New York), but most voters say he'll be lonely," Carroll said.


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