A PEEP AT OBAMA’S 2016 DILEMMA
For almost two years now, I have been writing columns telling you that Mitt Romney will handily lose this upcoming presidential election. So I am moving beyond that now: it’s a “fait accompli” in my book. Romney is -and has always been- as horrible a candidate as any the republicans could have nominated. There are much better presidential candidates in the Republican Party. Most of the good ones chose not to run this time around.
This election has been over long before it even started; but you won’t know this from the coverage on Fox News Network. I wonder what their pundits will say on election night after the polls close and the votes are counted in Obama’s favor. Will they ever admit that their coverage and analysis has been shoddy, deceitful and specious? I guess not!
Mitt Romney is a political socio-path. With ease, he calmly and coolly moves from one position to another -while dealing with the same issue- in almost no time flat. All the while he shows no concern for his flipping and flopping. Relative to politics he appears to hold no core values. He can stop on a dime and change his previous position without any sort of guilt or responsibility. He seems to maintain no compunction for lying and contradicting. He recently stated that he would hold on to certain aspects of “Obamacare”, after repeating hundreds of times over that it will be the first thing he repeals on day one of his presidency. After two years of campaigning to the contrary, he now claims that there are some redeeming qualities/ value to the 2008 health care reform, which he will maintain. WOW!!!!!!!
And yet, we shouldn’t be too surprised given the man’s track record of flip-flopping. From pro-choice to pro life; from same sex marriage to gay rights; from Romney-care to Obama-care; from gun-control to gun-ownership-rights; you name the issue and Mitt Romney has taken at least two sides at some point in his political career: voters know this. Most astute voters will see him as being dishonest and insincere. It will cost him big time on Election Day.
I have said it umpteen times now: Barack Obama will win this election. And it wouldn’t even be close: see my previous columns in the archives of Room Eight New York Politics (www.r8ny.com). And by close, I mean like in 1960, 1976, 1980, 2000 or 2004. In 1960 John F. Kennedy barely defeated Richard Nixon. Rumor has it that the mayor of Chicago (Daly/Democrat) resorted to chicanery in order to deliver the votes for an Illinois victory. Some of these voters are rumored to have been dead residents of a few Chicago cemeteries. In 1976 Jerry Ford was closer to defeating Jimmy Carter than Dems would care to admit. In 2000, Al Gore would have become president had he carried his home state (Tennessee); and don’t forget he won the popular vote overall. In 2004, John Kerry wins the presidency with a victory in Ohio. This time around, I expect Obama to build on his Electoral College number of 2008. Romney is even worse than McCain as a republican challenger (and McCain was horrible). It’s not going to be a blowout/ wipeout a la Reagan v. Mondale of 1984; the results will probably be closer to Bush 1 v. Dukakis in 1988. Either way it will be a handy victory for Obama.
I am anticipating a big problem for Barack Obama after he wins re-election: who does he support in the 2016 presidential primaries? Will it be his loyal vice-president (Joe Biden)? Or will it be his competent secretary of state (Hilary Clinton)?
Look; Bill Clinton didn’t deliver that profound convention speech last week for free. What I know of this political animal leads me to conclude that he wants reciprocity for coming to Obama’s aid at the convention. I expect that he will put tremendous pressure on Obama to endorse Hilary Clinton very early in the selective process; once she decides to run. Neither Bill nor Hillary Clinton has ever recovered from the stunning defeat at the hands of Barack Obama in the last presidential primaries. There is only one cure from that heartbreak: a victory in 2016.
But does it mean that Barack Obama will throw Joe Biden under the bus by endorsing her over him? I don’t think so; and yet I am going to offer democrats a way out of this potential dilemma. It can also prevent a messy and tumultuous presidential primary.
Arrange a ticket whereby Biden runs for president in 2016, with Hilary Clinton as his veep. Let Biden swear on his integrity and good name, to one four year term, then he resigns and gives Hilary her shot in 2020. She will still be making history by becoming the first female vice-president of the USA (once they are victorious). The way demographics are changing in this country -and given the current state of the Republican Party- it is easy to visualize a Biden/ Clinton victory.
Such an arrangement might not appear to be feasible to those with limited vision, but it can be done if President Obama, Bill Clinton, and other party leaders start working behind the scenes very early to avoid a messy primary.
Stay tuned-in folks.