If you had asked me about four months ago, what were Michele Adolphe’s chances of  defeating 32-year incumbent Rhoda Jacobs in the upcoming primary, I would have told you she had two chances: very slim and none. In fact, I had spoken to Mr. Very Slim quite early in this contest, and he told me that he was going on vacation: so go figure.

Of course this was based on a very objective analysis of previous races between these two candidates. Ms. Adolphe has faced the voters twice, and was soundly defeated by Ms. Jacobs both times. In one race there was a third candidate on the ballot (Zacary Lareche), and Michele ran dead last. Then there was at least one other time when she was knocked of the ballot, after her signatures (petitions) were challenged in court. So Michele’s record is spotty at best.

Ms. Adolphe is a tenacious fighter however, and she has refused to be beaten into submission. She is back for another round. This time she has put a very good campaign team in place and has run her best campaign ever: to the point where her team expects victory come Tuesday 14th September, 2010. I am not kidding here folks.   

The team is being led by Kevin Alexander (campaign manager) and Cynthia Davis (deputy). These are experienced veterans in this game. These are political operatives/technicians par excellence. Kevin Alexander once worked with Al Sharpton’s National Action Network. Politics has taken him to many states in the USA, and to many countries all over the world. He ran for the state senate recently (Staten Island) losing to Senator Diane Savino.

Ms. Davis has worked on many political campaigns over the years in near all boroughs of New York City. She and Kevin teamed up to take care of one of Ms. Adolphe’s “Achilles-Heels”: the petition process. They obtained over 3,200 signatures to qualify their candidate without a court challenge. That was big. It was also an epic of good things to come. Plus they have hit the streets hard. The have done subway work, and door to door canvassing: getting very favorable responses from registered voters. These responses have buoyed their confidence in pulling off an upset.

Now, I have always cautioned overly optimistic candidates about what I call “fool’s gold”. This is when many people on the streets tell you they will be are voting for you, but when Election Day comes, you find a low turnout: wherein incumbents and their supporters crush you like a broken heart. 

Ms. Jacobs has her own problems. She has been exposed as a “double-dipper”. She has been receiving her salary, traveling reimbursements, allowances, lulus, and a pension: all at the same time. She has also used campaign contributions for some personal expenditures that some say are questionable. And they say that this has been going on for a very long time now: remember, I have been told that Ms. Jacobs has been in Albany for 32 consecutive years now.

Ms. Adolph is a Haitian born American-citizen whose district has a high number of Haitian-American residents. It is an area that has already elected another Haitian-American to office (Mathieu Eugene/city council). For his own reasons, Mr. Eugene has refused to endorse his fellow country-woman: Ms. Adolphe. Many Haitian-Americans are very very disappointed by this.

Kevin Alexander has decried the lack of courage from black electeds in the area since they don’t support Ms. Adolphe’s challenge. He said that Assembly member Nick Perry, Mathieu Eugene and others here, have refused to endorse in a district where 85% of the population is considered “minority”; with roughly two-thirds being of Caribbean descent. Haitians probably make up about a quarter of all the Caribs here (or more).  Alexander thinks that the black-electeds in this area are a bunch of cowards, as it relates to the “empowerment” of people of color in the political arena.  

Ms. Jacobs has a base of voters on the south side of the district, wherein most whites (especially Jewish) live. They have perennially delivered their votes to her, in a huge bloc. In the past, many black challengers have found this voting-bloc formidable and insurmountable. This vote usually turns out to be twice (or higher) its number, in terms of demographics (which is approximately15%). It is a very organized voting bloc which is being tested once again. Remember this: it has never failed the test.

To undertake this project, Alexander resigned from his position as Deputy Chief of Staff to Senator Eric Adams: however Senator Adams is not endorsing Ms. Adolphe. Kevin is disappointed by this. And yet, Michele and her team have surprisingly snagged a few quality endorsements on their own; including Congressman Ed Towns and City Council member Charles Barron (what a combo!). She also has Roy Hastick, founder and CEO of the Caribbean-American Chamber of Commerce; so too Clarence and Mabel Robertson, who are popular and prominent members of this community. She has been endorsed by Haitian-American clergymen Rev. Nicolas and Rev. Mark: both with very large Christian churches in this area. She also has the endorsement of the Flatbush Democratic Political Club -which has delivered candidates in the past.

For the first time in ages, I am told that Rhoda Jacobs has been out campaigning- something she seldom ever does. Does this mean she is running scared? If you see posters of Ms. Jacobs seeking re-election, then be very concerned for her. In 32 years of observing this lady I have never ever seen one poster of hers. I am told that she has been sighted making the rounds at block parties. This in itself is not necessarily irregular (though rare). If Rhoda Jacobs shows up campaigning for votes at the many subway stations in the district, be very concerned folks: since this is something (again) I have never seen in all these years. And remember this: I ran against her in 1998.

With eleven days to go until the election, Adolphe’s campaign is primed for an upset. We will surely know very soon if their confidence is well placed: or misplaced.

Stay tuned-in folks.