Hiram will win because the voters of that Senate District know him and elected him in the first place.

It's boundries are the political equivalent of an insane asylum.

As I've previously noted, except in the technical sense Monserrate has nevwer won an election for State Senate, because, except in the technical sense, there was never even an election.

Yoda was making a funny, dudes!

Re-read the last line, then re-watch the infamous video of Monserrate dragging his girlfriend out of the building, then re-read the last line again.

Get it???   :-)

Manny Burgos,
Brooklyn, New York
"Más vale morir luchando, que vivir muriendo."

I'll vote for monseratte because Jose Peralat who is endorse by Quinn also has a slush fund with fictitious charity group.  Quinn is morally bankrupt and anyone who is endorsed my her is just as rotten.

Click the link to read the entire thing, which involves Peralta's family members. 

http://queenscrap.blogspot.com/2009/12/hirams-replacement-is-no-angel-either.html 

 Queens Assemblyman Jose Peralta landed more than $500,000 in taxpayer money for a nonprofit that never filed federal tax records, has no employees and has been inactive for more than two years.

My bad!

Manny Burgos,
Brooklyn, New York
"Más vale morir luchando, que vivir muriendo."

Interesting you should mention Quinn slush fund scandals, because it is Hiram, not Peralta, who has benefitted from  the Quiin slush fund: 

 http://www.r8ny.com/blog/gatemouth/los_gusanos.html

This comes from someone that knows both candidates well and has actually worked in campaigns for both candidates (and who now has both candidates upset at him for sitting out this election).

I really think that Hiram has a chance to win, which is extremely scary.

Hiram has been in public office longer than Peralta (2001 v. 2003), has MUCH HIGHER visibility and name recognition within the district (go to 103rd and Roosevelt and ask.  Almost everyone knows who Monserrate is, much fewer will know who Peralta is.  This was true pre-face slashing), has beaten the Queens Dems before (in his first election, Hiram was heavily opposed by the party), and has convinced his hard-core followers that he's the victim of a racist, political plot to unfairly remove him from office.

I'm getting the emails pretty constantly from Monserrate lackeys on different events he's having around the district.  These people are motivated.  They've done it before and they feel they can do it again.

I would go into the details and psyche of the Monserrate followers, but am afraid that doing so would be too much in outing who I am, as I have shared those thoughts with people active in the campaign.  What I will say is that unfortunately for NYS (fortunately for him), since his political beginning Hiram has tapped into a psychological need for him and his followers to be branded as the "victims" going against the big, bad establishment.  Hiram and the LOA (lol) first found this strategy worked when fighting against the NYPD and later used it to get him elected to the Council in 2001.  I'm afraid that today, Hiram and Co. can still tap into that reservoir of "victimhood", fueled by this new perception of "persecution" by the system, to get enough supporters to bring him over the edge.

As far as Peralta, I've always gotten along better with him than Hiram, mainly because he's just a nicer guy.  Unfortunately, he is someone that has basically been groomed for his current position by Manton/Crowley and has still not had his first real political fight for survival.  When you have the Queens Dems always supporting you and don't have real opponents in your races, it makes you soft when that challenge does appear.  Other than that (and the obvious ethical issues outlined above, but which in my experience with electeds is actually fairly standard), I can't really complain about anything else in regards to Peralta.  He's a good, generic, vanilla bland politician.

However, when you're facing someone that has made a career of fighting the establishment and who is able to motivate people within the district, even after committing a heinous act, and who has beaten your machine in the past within the district, then you gotta step up your game.

My fear is that even if Peralta can step up his political game, Hiram's is still stronger and sharper.

Act as if what you do makes a difference. It does.

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