Submitted by Eri (not verified) on Sun, 02/03/2008 - 1:22am.
Some very interesting items from the poll that was posted this evening.
For the Democrats, the Clinton-Obama race tightened after Obama proved his mettle by winning Iowa and coming close in New Hampshire; he's since added South Carolina. In numbers very similar to their levels last month, Obama leads by 2-1 among African-Americans (including black women), by 10 points among men and by 12 points among independents. He's also ahead by 18 points among Democrats who describe themselves as "very" liberal.
But Clinton is maintaining her advantage in other groups; she leads Obama by 15 points among women and 23 points among white women. She has an 11-point lead among mainline Democrats, as opposed to independents; and is plus-11 among moderate and conservative Democrats, as opposed to liberals overall (among whom it's Obama plus-8).
She also has more committed support; 62 percent of Clinton voters say they strongly support her, compared with 49 percent of Obama's. Both well outstrip McCain's 38 percent strong support. And on strength and direction
Beneath these overall numbers has been a shift back toward Clinton in a key dynamic of the race, the battle between her trademark attributes of strength and experience vs. Obama's focus on a new direction and new ideas.
In December the two concepts were at parity, with Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents dividing evenly on which was more important. Last month, with Obama gaining ground, Democrats by 54-36 percent gave more importance to a "new direction." In this poll, the two competing attributes again are back at parity, 46-45 percent.
These matter because these preferences cut so heavily to vote choice. Among people who care more about strength and experience, Clinton leads Obama by 75-17 percent; among those who are more concerned with a new direction and new ideas, it's Obama by 70-22 percent. These two competing visions strongly define the Democratic race.
Associated with these views, Clinton holds a substantial 58-34 percent advantage over Obama as the "strongest leader," a gap that's widened since last month. At the same time, he leads her, albeit by a much narrower 7 points, as the candidate who's best able "to bring needed change to Washington." Clinton and Obama were about even on that attribute last month. On the issues Hillary also holds a lead even among the people that care about the Iraq war.
Within her party, Clinton holds a large and undiminished lead in trust to handle health care, as well as a 52-38 percent advantage over Obama in trust to handle the economy -- potentially useful given its growing importance. She has a smaller 8-point edge in trust to handle the Iraq war; the two are closer to even on handling immigration. Of course things can change but this does look like a more favorable Feb 5th for Hillary than I was expecting.
Some very interesting items from the poll that was posted this evening.
For the Democrats, the Clinton-Obama race tightened after Obama proved his mettle by winning Iowa and coming close in New Hampshire; he's since added South Carolina. In numbers very similar to their levels last month, Obama leads by 2-1 among African-Americans (including black women), by 10 points among men and by 12 points among independents. He's also ahead by 18 points among Democrats who describe themselves as "very" liberal.
But Clinton is maintaining her advantage in other groups; she leads Obama by 15 points among women and 23 points among white women. She has an 11-point lead among mainline Democrats, as opposed to independents; and is plus-11 among moderate and conservative Democrats, as opposed to liberals overall (among whom it's Obama plus-8).
She also has more committed support; 62 percent of Clinton voters say they strongly support her, compared with 49 percent of Obama's. Both well outstrip McCain's 38 percent strong support.
And on strength and direction
Beneath these overall numbers has been a shift back toward Clinton in a key dynamic of the race, the battle between her trademark attributes of strength and experience vs. Obama's focus on a new direction and new ideas.
In December the two concepts were at parity, with Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents dividing evenly on which was more important. Last month, with Obama gaining ground, Democrats by 54-36 percent gave more importance to a "new direction." In this poll, the two competing attributes again are back at parity, 46-45 percent.
These matter because these preferences cut so heavily to vote choice. Among people who care more about strength and experience, Clinton leads Obama by 75-17 percent; among those who are more concerned with a new direction and new ideas, it's Obama by 70-22 percent. These two competing visions strongly define the Democratic race.
Associated with these views, Clinton holds a substantial 58-34 percent advantage over Obama as the "strongest leader," a gap that's widened since last month. At the same time, he leads her, albeit by a much narrower 7 points, as the candidate who's best able "to bring needed change to Washington." Clinton and Obama were about even on that attribute last month.
On the issues Hillary also holds a lead even among the people that care about the Iraq war.
Within her party, Clinton holds a large and undiminished lead in trust to handle health care, as well as a 52-38 percent advantage over Obama in trust to handle the economy -- potentially useful given its growing importance. She has a smaller 8-point edge in trust to handle the Iraq war; the two are closer to even on handling immigration.
Of course things can change but this does look like a more favorable Feb 5th for Hillary than I was expecting.
Poll results are here:
http://abcnews.go.com/PollingUnit/Vote2008/Story?id=4233020&page=2