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Siena Research
Institute
Siena College,
Loudonville, NY
www.siena.edu/sri
Monthly New
York State Consumer Confidence Index including Gas and Food Analysis
For Immediate Release: Friday,
July 31, 2009
For information/comment: Dr. Douglas Lonnstrom:
518-783-2362 (office) or 518-456-6073 (home)
For PDF of release, data summary, or trend analysis,
visit www.siena.edu/sri/cci
Overall NY Consumer Confidence Unchanged in July;
Nation Down
Democrats Top State Willingness to Spend,
Republicans Least Optimistic
Car Buying Plans Highest Since Oct ’07; Gas and
Food Prices Still Draining Consumers
Loudonville, NY - New York
State consumer confidence was unchanged in July, while the nation’s
confidence decreased 4.8 points, according to the latest poll by the Siena
(College) Research Institute (SRI). At 64.3, New York’s overall consumer
confidence is 1.7 points below the nation’s* 66.0 confidence level.
July
2009
Consumer Confidence:
The
Nation*
New York
State
diff.
points
New York
State
Metro NYC
Upstate
NY
Overall
66.0 (-4.8)
64.3 (0.0)
-1.7
64.3 (0.0)
66.5 (-1.2)
60.2 (1.2)
Current
70.5 (-2.7)
63.3 (1.9)
-7.2
63.3 (1.9)
61.8 (0.8)
65.6 (3.0)
Future
63.2 (-6.0)
65.0 (-1.2)
1.8
65.0 (-1.2)
69.6 (-2.4)
56.7 (0.0)
(
) reflects the point change from previous month. *National
data compiled by the U. of Michigan
In
July, buying plans were up for: cars/trucks, 2.1 points to 11.5%; and furniture,
1.3 points to 16.6%. Buying plans were down for: computers, 0.8
points to 12.5%; homes, 0.2 points to 4.1%; and major home
improvements, 0.5 points to 14.4%.
“Despite a Dow
rally, and some positive news from housing this month, New York consumer
confidence did not move,” according to Dr. Douglas Lonnstrom, professor
of statistics and finance at Siena College and SRI Founding Director. “Concerns
over jobs and the debate over health care continue to corral consumer
spending. And here in New York politics appears to be influencing
confidence. Democrats’ overall confidence is twelve points higher
than Republicans’ and members of the two parties see entirely different
futures facing our state. Nearly as many Democrats are optimistic as are
pessimistic about the future but among Republicans vast majorities expect
difficult economic conditions to persist and a plurality do not believe they
personally will be better off financially a year from today. Good news,
well, buying plans for cars are the highest they’ve been since October
2007.”
Each month since January
1999, the SRI survey establishes a Consumer Confidence index number for New
York State consumers. This index number allows a direct comparison of New
Yorkers to all Americans (“the nation”) as surveyed by the
University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment index. The SRI survey
measures current and future consumer confidence, which combined
provides the overall consumer confidence. SRI further looks at
confidence in New York State by region (metro New York City and Upstate), age,
income, gender and party.
Consumer Confidence in New York State (index
numbers): July 2009
(Groups listed in descending order by Overall
CCI Rating)
Overall
Current
Future
Democrats
69.8 (0.6)
63.7 (2.3)
73.7 (-0.5)
Men
67.9 (1.8)
69.4 (3.8)
66.9 (0.5)
Metro NYC
66.5 (-1.2)
61.8 (0.8)
69.6 (-2.4)
Higher income
66.2 (0.4)
69.7 (1.1)
64.0 (0.0)
Under Age 55
64.8 (-2.0)
62.9 (1.9)
65.9 (-4.7)
New York State
64.3 (0.0)
63.3 (1.9)
65.0 (-1.2)
Age 55+
63.7 (1.3)
63.3 (1.1)
64.0 (1.5)
Lower income
63.1 (1.7)
57.6 (4.1)
66.7 (0.3)
Women
61.4 (-1.3)
58.0 (0.0)
63.5 (-2.2)
Upstate NY
60.2 (1.2)
65.6 (3.0)
56.7 (0.0)
Republicans
57.5 (-5.2)
62.2 (-3.8)
54.5 (-6.1)
Consumer Confidence and Buying Plans; Summary
of Previous 24 Months
Consumer Confidence
Buying Plans
Overall Index
Current Index
Future Index
Car/ Truck
Computer
Furniture
Home
Major Home Improvement
July 2007
81.0
90.6
74.9
12.7%
11.8%
16.9%
4.2%
16.8%
July 2008
53.4
54.6
52.6
7.7%
9.7%
12.8%
2.6%
15.3%
July 2009
64.3
63.3
65.0
11.5%
12.5%
16.6%
4.1%
14.4%
2 Year Difference
-16.7
-27.3
-9.9
-1.2
0.7
-0.3
-0.1
-2.4
Highest
81.0
(Jul 07)
90.6
(Jul 07)
74.9
(Jul 07)
12.7%
(Jul 07)
15.5%
(Dec 07)
18.5%
(Nov 07)
5.0%
(Sep 07)
17.9%
(Apr 08)
Lowest
51.6
(Oct 08)
49.7
(Oct 08)
49.9
(Jun 08)
7.7%
(Jul 08 & Jan 09)
7.4%
(Oct 08)
10.3%
(Nov 08)
2.2%
(Jan 09)
10.9%
(Nov 08)
Gas and Food Price
Analysis
Fifty-five percent of all New
Yorkers say that current gasoline prices are having a very serious or somewhat
serious impact on their financial condition, up one point from last
month. Sixty-two percent of state residents indicate that the amount of
money they spend on groceries is having either a very serious or somewhat
serious impact on their finances. Forty-three percent of state residents
say that both gasoline and food prices are having either a somewhat or very
serious impact on their finances down from a high of 71% in July 2008.
“Lessening gasoline
prices this month did not lighten the financial load for New York
consumers. Over half of all New Yorkers and two-thirds of Upstaters
continue to say that gas is causing them a somewhat serious or serious hardship.
Still, the current pinch is a fraction of last summer’s strangle
hold. Similarly, food costs worry over six in ten residents overall, and
three of every four low income households, but despite the effect that those
prices are having on many, as a state we are better off than the near panic of
last July,” according to Dr. Lonnstrom.
The following chart shows the
percentage of New York State residents by income, political party, age,
location and gender that report a hardship from 1) gasoline prices, 2) food
prices, and 3) both gas and food prices.
Seriousness of Gas
and Food Prices: Percentage of NY'ers
Total percent by
category indicating a somewhat or very serious problem.
Gasoline
Food
Both Gas and Food
Jul 2009
Jun 2009
May 2009
Jul 2008
Jul 2009
Jun 2009
May 2009
Jul 2008
Jul 2009
Jun 2009
May 2009
Jul 2008
Upstate
NY
66%
64%
56%
79%
68%
61%
60%
80%
55%
49%
46%
73%
Lower
Income
58%
57%
51%
81%
74%
75%
70%
87%
50%
50%
43%
77%
Women
58%
53%
49%
81%
66%
66%
70%
84%
46%
44%
42%
75%
Republicans
57%
57%
50%
80%
60%
62%
62%
76%
44%
42%
42%
72%
New
York State
55%
54%
46%
78%
62%
63%
60%
81%
43%
42%
38%
71%
Under
age 55
55%
54%
46%
80%
62%
67%
62%
83%
41%
44%
39%
74%
Age
55+
55%
55%
46%
76%
61%
60%
60%
79%
44%
42%
37%
69%
Men
52%
55%
42%
75%
56%
60%
52%
77%
40%
41%
34%
67%
Higher
Income
51%
52%
42%
76%
52%
53%
53%
76%
36%
35%
33%
67%
Democrats
50%
54%
43%
76%
62%
65%
65%
83%
41%
43%
36%
68%
Metro
NYC
49%
48%
40%
77%
58%
65%
61%
81%
36%
38%
34%
69%
The SRI survey of Consumer
Confidence was conducted in July 2009 by random telephone calls to 801 New York
State residents over the age of 18. As consumer confidence is expressed
as an index number developed after statistical calculations to a series of
questions, “margin of error” does not apply. Buying plans, which
are shown as a percentage based on answers to specific questions, do have a
margin of error of + 3.5 points. For more information or comments,
please call Dr. Douglas Lonnstrom, SRI’s Founding Director, at
518-783-2362. Survey cross-tabulations and buying plans can be found at www.siena.edu/sri/cci. SRI is an independent, non-partisan research
institute. SRI subscribes to the American Association of Public Opinion
Research (AAPOR) Code of Professional Ethics and Practices.
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