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Siena Research Institute
Siena College, Loudonville, NY
www.siena.edu/sri
For Immediate Release: Monday,
November 2, 2009
Contact: Steven
Greenberg at 518-469-9858
PDF version; crosstabs;
website: www.Siena.edu/SRI/SNY
Siena New York 23rd
Congressional District Poll:
Hoffman
Leads Owens 41-36%; Undecided up to 18%
Hoffman Leads in South; Owens Leads in East; Tied in West
Favorability
Ratings: Hoffman Up; Owens Slips; Biden Good with Dems
Loudonville, NY. On the eve of Election Day, Conservative Doug Hoffman
has opened up a five point lead over Democrat Bill Owens in the race for the 23rd
Congressional District. Republican Assembly member Dede Scozzafava still
gets six percent support, but since her decision to suspend her campaign and
support Owens, the number of undecided voters has doubled from nine percent to
18 percent, according to
a new Siena (College) Research Institute poll of likely voters.
If the special election were held
today, who would you vote for?
Hoffman
Owens
Scozzafava
11/2
10/31
10/15
10/1
11/2
10/31
10/15
10/1
11/2
10/31
10/15
10/1
23rd CD
41%
35%
23%
16%
36%
36%
33%
28%
6%
20%
29%
35%
Democrats
15%
14%
10%
6%
62%
66%
55%
48%
6%
11%
17%
26%
Republicans
63%
50%
27%
22%
14%
13%
19%
16%
9%
29%
40%
47%
Independents
37%
40%
31%
20%
43%
35%
28%
23%
2%
15%
24%
26%
Clinton/Essex/Franklin/
Fulton/Hamilton
34%
33%
21%
18%
45%
46%
45%
32%
5%
13%
20%
31%
Jefferson/Lewis/
St. Lawrence
36%
28%
13%
10%
36%
30%
25%
23%
9%
34%
44%
53%
Madison/Oneida/
Oswego
51%
44%
34%
20%
28%
33%
31%
30%
4%
12%
21%
20%
”Hoffman continues to demonstrate momentum, picking up
six points since Scozzafava pulled out,” said Siena pollster Steven
Greenberg. “It appears, however, that the majority of
Scozzafava’s supporters have gone to neither Hoffman nor Owens, but
rather into the undecided column, which has doubled since Scozzafava ended her
candidacy.”
“Hoffman has increased his lead among Republicans,
while Owens maintains his lead among Democrats and has now taken the lead with
independent voters,” Greenberg said. “Owens kept his lead in
the northeastern counties steady, while Hoffman extended his lead in the
southern counties, and the two are dead even in the northwestern counties, the
area in which Scozzafava previously led.”
Do you have a favorable or
unfavorable opinion of …
Favorable
Unfavorable
DK/NO
11/2
10/31
10/15
10/1
11/2
10/31
10/15
10/1
11/2
10/31
10/15
10/1
Doug Hoffman
47%
41%
23%
16%
33%
37%
15%
13%
20%
22%
63%
71%
Bill Owens
37%
40%
32%
23%
38%
36%
22%
12%
25%
24%
47%
64%
Dede Scozzafava
27%
29%
37%
33%
48%
51%
32%
20%
25%
20%
31%
47%
Joe Biden
41%
NA
NA
NA
37%
NA
NA
NA
22%
NA
NA
NA
Barack Obama
NA
59%
56%
55%
NA
37%
40%
38%
NA
4%
4%
6%
“Hoffman’s favorability rating shot up from a net
positive four points to a now net positive 14 points – 47-33
percent,” Greenberg said. “Owens’ favorability dropped
slightly from a net positive four points to a net negative one point.
“Vice President Joe Biden comes to the 23rd CD
today with a 41-37 percent favorability rating, although he is strong, 64-18
percent, with Democrats,” Greenberg said.
“With nearly one in five voters undecided the day
before Election Day and voters still trying to comprehend the dramatic
withdrawal of Scozzafava, and her subsequent endorsement of Owens, this is
still a wide open race,” Greenberg said. “The two candidates
and campaigns are both in a sprint to try and convince these undecided voters
to support them. Which ever campaign succeeds in convincing the undecided
voters and then getting them to the polls tomorrow, will likely be looking at a
victory tomorrow night.”
# # #
This SRI 23rd
C.D. survey was conducted November 1, 2009 by telephone calls to 606 likely
voters. It has a margin of error of + 4.0 percentage points.
Data was statistically adjusted by age, gender, party and geography to ensure
representativeness. Sampling was conducted via random digit dialing
weighted to reflect known population patterns. For more information,
please call Steven Greenberg at 518-469-9858. Survey cross-tabulations
and frequencies can be found at: www.Siena.edu/SRI/SNY.
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