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Siena Research
Institute
Siena College,
Loudonville, NY
www.siena.edu/sri
Monthly New
York State Consumer Confidence Index including Gas and Food Analysis
For Immediate Release: Friday,
November 6, 2009
For information/comment: Dr. Douglas Lonnstrom:
518-783-2362 (office) or 518-456-6073 (home)
For PDF of release, data summary, or trend analysis,
visit www.siena.edu/sri/cci
New York, Nation: Consumer Confidence Droops as Leaves
Fall
Future Concerns Stall Jobless Recovery Bandwagon
Home Buying Plans Up; Approach Two Year High
Consumers Adjusting to High Gas/Food Prices
Loudonville, NY - New York
State consumer confidence decreased 1.9 points in October, while the
nation’s confidence decreased 2.9 points, according to the latest poll by
the Siena (College) Research Institute (SRI). At 66.7, New York’s overall
consumer confidence is 3.9 points below the nation’s* 70.6 confidence
level.
October
2009
Consumer Confidence:
The
Nation*
New York
State
diff.
points
New York
State
Metro NYC
Upstate
NY
Overall
70.6 (-2.9)
66.7 (-1.9)
-3.9
66.7 (-1.9)
69.5 (-3.7)
61.8 (0.9)
Current
73.7 (0.3)
66.0 (0.4)
-7.7
66.0 (0.4)
65.2 (0.0)
66.7 (0.7)
Future
68.6 (-4.9)
67.2 (-3.4)
-1.4
67.2 (-3.4)
72.3 (-6.0)
58.6 (0.9)
(
) reflects the point change from previous month. *National
data compiled by the U. of Michigan
In
October, buying plans were up for: cars/trucks, 1.9 points to 10.6%; computers,
0.6 points to 14.2%; and homes, 1.3 points to 4.4%. Buying
plans were down for: furniture, 1.9 points to 15.0%. Buying plans
remained unchanged for: major home improvements, at 13.4%.
“Frankly, the
October Consumer Confidence numbers are disappointing,” according to Dr.
Douglas Lonnstrom, professor of statistics and finance at Siena College and SRI
Founding Director. “Touted signs of a recovery including a
Dow flirting with 10,000 are not resonating with consumers who this month
became more pessimistic about both the short and long term economic
picture. ‘Where’s the Jobs?’ is the growing call of the
consumer. But, those with cash and job security may be beginning to hunt
for bargains in real estate and among early holiday treats.”
Each month since January
1999, the SRI survey establishes a Consumer Confidence index number for New
York State consumers. This index number allows a direct comparison of New
Yorkers to all Americans (“the nation”) as surveyed by the
University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment index. The SRI survey
measures current and future consumer confidence, which combined
provides the overall consumer confidence. SRI further looks at
confidence in New York State by region (metro New York City and Upstate), age,
income, gender and party.
Consumer Confidence in New York State (index
numbers): October 2009
(Groups listed in descending order by Overall
CCI Rating)
Overall
Current
Future
Democrats
72.5 (-1.7)
64.8 (0.0)
77.4 (-2.9)
Metro NYC
69.5 (-3.7)
65.2 (0.0)
72.3 (-6.0)
Under Age 55
68.5 (-4.3)
64.1 (-1.5)
71.3 (-6.1)
Higher income
67.7 (-4.5)
70.9 (0.4)
65.7 (-7.5)
Women
66.8 (-0.8)
62.6 (1.2)
69.6 (-1.9)
New York State
66.7 (-1.9)
66.0 (0.4)
67.2 (-3.4)
Men
66.2 (-3.6)
70.5 (0.4)
63.5 (-6.1)
Age 55+
65.1 (-0.3)
67.1 (2.3)
63.7 (-2.0)
Lower income
64.9 (-0.3)
59.1 (-1.2)
68.6 (0.2)
Republicans
61.7 (-4.1)
68.2 (0.7)
57.4 (-7.3)
Upstate NY
61.8 (0.9)
66.7 (0.7)
58.6 (0.9)
Consumer Confidence and Buying Plans; Summary
of Previous 24 Months
Consumer Confidence
Buying Plans
Overall Index
Current Index
Future Index
Car/ Truck
Computer
Furniture
Home
Major Home Improvement
Oct 2007
71.9
80.3
66.4
12.6%
12.7%
18.0%
3.5%
17.2%
Oct 2008
51.6
49.7
52.8
7.9%
7.4%
12.7%
2.4%
12.6%
Oct 2009
66.7
66.0
67.2
10.6%
14.2%
15.0%
4.4%
13.4%
2 Year Difference
-5.2
-14.3
0.8
-2.0
1.5
-3.0
0.9
-3.8
Highest
71.9
(Oct 07)
80.3
(Oct 07)
71.8
(Aug 09)
12.6%
(Oct 07)
15.5%
(Dec 07)
18.5%
(Nov 07)
4.7%
(Aug 07)
17.9%
(Apr 08)
Lowest
51.6
(Oct 08)
49.7
(Oct 08)
49.9
(Jun 08)
7.7%
(Jul 08 & Jan 09)
7.4%
(Oct 08)
10.3%
(Nov 08)
2.2%
(Jan 09)
10.9%
(Nov 08)
Gas and Food Price
Analysis
Forty-six percent of all New
Yorkers say that current gasoline prices are having a very serious or somewhat
serious impact on their financial condition, down five points from last
month. Fifty-nine percent of state residents indicate that the amount of
money they spend on groceries is having either a very serious or somewhat
serious impact on their finances. Forty-two percent of state residents
say that both gasoline and food prices are having either a somewhat or very
serious impact on their finances down from a high of 71% in July 2008.
“Concerns over the
financial impact of gas and food costs were down this month across the
state. Fewer than one half of residents now say that gas prices pose a
hardship, down five points this month, and for the first time this year, fewer
than six in ten cringe at the grocery checkout line. Although prices have
not gone down, consumers to a growing degree, have adjusted and shock has
morphed into resignation,” according to Dr. Lonnstrom.
The following chart shows the
percentage of New York State residents by income, political party, age,
location and gender that report a hardship from 1) gasoline prices, 2) food
prices, and 3) both gas and food prices.
Seriousness of Gas
and Food Prices: Percentage of NY'ers
Total percent by
category indicating a somewhat or very serious problem.
Gasoline
Food
Both Gas and Food
Oct 2009
Sep 2009
Aug 2009
Jul 2008
Oct 2009
Sep 2009
Aug 2009
Jul 2008
Oct 2009
Sep 2009
Aug 2009
Jul 2008
Under
age 55
53%
54%
51%
80%
61%
65%
64%
83%
41%
43%
42%
74%
Upstate
NY
52%
61%
56%
79%
60%
65%
62%
80%
41%
50%
45%
73%
Lower
Income
50%
55%
54%
81%
69%
70%
73%
87%
42%
48%
47%
77%
Republicans
48%
48%
56%
80%
61%
58%
59%
76%
41%
42%
46%
72%
Women
47%
52%
46%
81%
65%
68%
65%
84%
39%
44%
39%
75%
New
York State
46%
51%
49%
78%
59%
63%
62%
81%
42%
42%
39%
71%
Higher
Income
45%
47%
44%
76%
49%
58%
53%
76%
32%
36%
33%
67%
Men
44%
51%
52%
75%
51%
59%
58%
77%
33%
40%
40%
67%
Metro
NYC
42%
45%
44%
77%
59%
63%
61%
81%
33%
37%
36%
69%
Democrats
42%
50%
44%
76%
56%
64%
64%
83%
33%
40%
36%
68%
Age
55+
41%
50%
47%
76%
57%
63%
60%
79%
33%
41%
38%
69%
The SRI survey of Consumer
Confidence was conducted in October 2009 by random telephone calls to 804 New
York State residents over the age of 18. As consumer confidence is
expressed as an index number developed after statistical calculations to a
series of questions, “margin of error” does not apply. Buying
plans, which are shown as a percentage based on answers to specific questions,
do have a margin of error of + 3.5 points. For more information or
comments, please call Dr. Douglas Lonnstrom, SRI’s Founding Director, at
518-783-2362. Survey cross-tabulations and buying plans can be found at www.siena.edu/sri/cci. SRI is an independent, non-partisan research
institute. SRI subscribes to the American Association of Public Opinion
Research (AAPOR) Code of Professional Ethics and Practices.
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