Now that Nick Perry is out of the race for the 11th Congressional District, I predict that Yvette Clarke will make major changes within her campaign team. Yvette, who has now emerged as the favorite to win the seat, will bring in a new campaign manager/ management team soon. Her current manager will be either axed or reassigned, if it hasn’t been done already. Note that this is the same manager who came in, with lots of fanfare about four months ago. Word is that Yvette wants to shift gears and move into winning stride. It’s her race to lose. She will revamp the campaign as a way to invigorate a soporific start.
So, as noted in the previous post, local government employment has soared by over 100,000 over 15 years in the portion of New York State outside New York City. Could population trends explain this?
Not exactly. In fact, local government employment has fallen steeply relative to population in the city, and risen in the rest of the state.
According to the U.S. Census Bureau, New York City’s population rose from 7.3 million in 1990 to 8.15 million in 2005, a gain of over 800,0000. Accordingly, the number of local government workers per 1,000 residents fell from 64.4 in 1990 to 55.1 in 2005, a substantial decrease of 14.4%.
I'll give the Empire Zone a few weeks before fully judging it, but my first impression of the Times' new political blog isn't great. The content, reporting, etc. are fine—the quality one would expect from such a prestigious paper. However, the fun and utility of the Daily Politics, the Politicker, Room 8, etc., is not only what the writers have to say, but what the New York politicos think about the subjects—and the conversations in the comments sections that often ensue.
Ben calls the Daily Politics "A running conversation about the New York political scene"—he really should append "...between a New York political reporter and New York politicos." I don't think the Empire Zone can duplicate that or even make it a good imitation.
Every spring for the last 15 years, my company, Prime New York, has mailed to @1,000 politicos, our newsletter - Prime News. It lists the previous year’s election results for public & party office plus information about enhancements to our voter file. This year’s edition should be hitting the mail this week.
But if you can’t wait or if you don’t normally get it, it’s now available on-line at our brand new Prime New York website.
Dear Mr. Camara and Mr. Hamilton,
Come Out…Come Out…Wherever You Are!
During my pursuit for change in Central Brooklyn, I experienced a number of twists and turns, but the one constant I have come to realize is that there are still GOOD PEOPLE out there. Regardless of conditions…good people persevere, regardless of presentation…good people listen and regardless of strife…good people still create opportunities. Recently, I started the door-to-door portion of my campaign and during this process; I have been embraced with open arms, so I will add another facet:
As far as I know Noah “Nick” Perry was never a math teacher-and I have known him for about 20 years. He is educated, resilient, crafty, and tenacious. Over the years he has also demonstrated some political ambition, and he has never been afraid to articulate it. Back in 1998, when I was leading an insurgent charge in Brooklyn, he and I almost came to blows at the Board of Elections on Adams Street. He was attempting to knock one of our guys off the ballot, and while overhearing his conversation, I found him to be abusive and threatening (verbally), thus we got into each other’s face- so to speak. Now this was uncharacteristic of Nick, since he is usually mild-mannered and does possess the desired decorum of an elected official, however he is Jamaican–born, and there is a tendency amongst most Jamaican men not to back-down when confronted, for fear of being labeled a “pussy”. Maybe that fear has kept Nick in the race for the 11th Congressional District all this time. Very few people think that he has a chance of winning, and even a third grade student knows, that when you run for congress from an assembly seat that you have held for 12 years, you must subtract your old seat. It’s simple arithmetic.
Bienvenidos a la blogosphere!
To the most mystified of readers, here's what Healy and the gang at The New York Times have in store for you every minute of every day:
Local government employment is going through the roof as politicians spend recklessly to reward their friends and supporters. The cost is soaring beyond the ability of New York City taxpayers to pay. What am I describing?
Wrong. It is in the rest of New York State during all those years that local employment has soared. This is quickly ascertained using the latest re-benchmarked Current Employment Survey (CES) data from the New York State Department of Labor. And yes, New York City taxpayers (along with those elsewhere in the state) are having a hard time paying for it.
(This article has now been corrected twice to reflect the ever changing reality)
Those who’ve noticed my recent hiatus probably need to get a life. But, if you care, it’s at least partially attributable to recent efforts, on at least three different sites in the last month, to attribute an identity to my posts. These are probably all the effort of one particular blogger (the person most likely responsible for jefffeldmanmustgo and perhaps other sites as well) whose anonymity I will respect by referring to him only as “fat ugly smelly toothless bastard”.
In a new Quinnipiac poll Spitzer is up and Suozzi is down, it had been 69-14 and is now 73-12. Unfortunately for Suozzi, his net favorable went from 10-points down to a net of only 5-points, which suggests he does not have much room for growth.
Name recognition and past runs for office are making the Attorney General race a two person contest. Cuomo is ahead statewide and he has been doing better upstate. Green’s net favorable numbers are slightly better than the leader, which argues for growth. This race could come down to turnout downstate and in the Jewish community, which could be high, both boosted by the favorite son candidacy of Spitzer who is destined to be the first Jewish governor of New York since Herbert Lehman who served four terms since 1932.
Two Words: Shelly Silver!
Sources say that at last night's Tilden Democratic Club endorsement meeting, (s)elected East Side Assemblywoman Sylvia Friedman was giddy with anticipation for her June 6th fundraiser in Albany, which will be hosted by ... Assembly Speaker Shelly Silver.
Apparently, Friedman - whose version of reform probably escapes Victor Hugo - told a little tale of how she "wasn't sure how she was going to get along with Shelly Silver once she went up to Albany," but then assured the crowd that she has found him to be an incredibly affable, "charming" man. Phewwwww!
Rock Hackshaw has asked me a few times on this blog my opinion about election turnout in New York and the US. There are as many theories about this as there are theorists but one theory that I believe has a lot going for it regards ethnic politics.
Put simply, ethnic or racially polarized election contests increase turnouts!
There has been no Presidential election since then that has had a higher percentage turnout than the 1960 Kennedy-Nixon election. The reason put forward by many is that this first election where a Catholic had a serious chance of being elected President increased the turnout of both Catholics and anti-Catholics.
So another poll came out today from the Quinnipiac people telling us what we already know: that Elliot Spitzer is leading in the gubernatorial race. In the immortal words of one former Nets basketball-player, “whoop-dee-damn-doo”. To me this is where New York’s politics appear trite. Of course, it’s an artifact of the “silly season”.
The mantra used to be, “No Republican has won statewide office in New York State without Conservative Party backing since the late Senator Jacob Javits in 1974.”
In today’s New York Times there is this line, “…the state Conservative Party, without whose backing no Republican has been elected governor since 1974.”
Checking the record just half way back and the spin becomes obvious. Looking at statewide offices from 1984 to the present the Republican candidate who also ran on the Conservative line lost 18 races and won only nine, including Reagan for President in 1984. Also, one Republican ran with out the Conservative line and lost.