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Pataki Spitzer Hillary Some Interesting Numbers

News coverage of the recent Siena College poll was dominated by how much Eliot Spitzer and Hillary Clinton were beating their ill-fated Republican opponents; there was other interesting information.  Between Siena’s March poll and their May poll, George Pataki argued with legislative leaders about the state budget and began a tour of presidential primary states.  During this period, among likely voters in the state his favorable rating moved negative 30-points. 

Pataki’s favorable rating had been 53% favorable to 40%, a 13-point net positive after his hospital stay, which was up from January when he had only a 4-point positive.   By May, he dropped precipitously to a negative 38% favorable to 55% unfavorable, a net 17-point negative.  The governor even has a low rating among Republicans, who give him a paltry 49% to 45% favorability rating.  This, together with Bush’s declining poll numbers, adds to the problems facing Republican statewide candidates and should bring shock waves through the state’s Republican Congressional delegation.   



Happy Cinco de Mayo Democrats

Just a couple of facts: 48 Republican held House seats that have a Democratic opponent have more than 15% Hispanic population, and 27 of those have more that 20%.

Republicans better take a closer look at immigration policy.



Pataki Spitzer Hillary Poll Has Interesting Numbers

News coverage of the recent Siena College poll was dominated by how much Eliot Spitzer and Hillary Clinton were beating their ill-fated Republican opponents; there was other interesting information.  Between Siena’s March poll and their May poll, George Pataki argued with legislative leaders about the state budget and began a tour of presidential primary states.  During this period, among likely voters in the state his favorable rating moved negative 30-points. 

Pataki’s favorable rating had been 53% favorable to 40%, a 13-point net positive after his hospital stay, which was up from January when he had only a 4-point positive.   By May, he dropped precipitously to a negative 38% favorable to 55% unfavorable, a net 17-point negative.  The governor even has a low rating among Republicans, who give him a paltry 49% to 45% favorability rating.  This, together with Bush’s declining poll numbers, adds to the problems facing Republican statewide candidates and should bring shock waves through the state’s Republican Congressional delegation.   



NY Times Gets It Wrong, Again!

Ed Rollins remarks about John Spencer’s “affair” once again is a fine example of how the New York Times covers New York politics (as opposed to say, a parlimentary election in Ukraine)

They cover it badly!

Thursday's  NY Times story on the remarks says –

“Mr. Spencer has never denied that while he was mayor, he had a long affair with his chief of staff while he was married, and had two children with her before they were married”

But the Times reporter or editors apparently didn’t read Wednesday’s Journal-News. The paper, which covers Westchester paper, had this to say–



Muzzio's Muse: To Debate or Coronate?

A classic choreography -- the underdog proposes frequent debates; the frontrunner ignores.  Why legitimize the opponent?  Why put yourself in a position to screw up?  Suozzi's so far behind in money and the polls that Spitzer's strategy is smart.

But Suozzi's for real -- a real reformer with a real record, articulate, ambitious, relentless.  He's presenting a real policy and program agenda, forcing Spitzer to grapple with meaningful State issues -- Medicaid, property taxes, school funding.

Spitzer should thank Suozzi; like a prizefighter, a candidate needs a tuneup and a good sparring partner to make you tougher, sharper.  Better to take some lumps now rather than find out you can't take body punches or have a glass chin in the main event.  For Suozzi, he can't win with the current dynamic; he needs to change it.



ESPA 2.0

Sean and Alan
 
"The old ESPA never would have done this!" said a close friend of mine who's one of the smartest gay politicos in New York City I know, referring to Empire State Pride Agenda's endorsement of Sean Patrick Maloney for AG.

Now, I have been accused of being "anti-Maloney" "on the blogs"—I deny this and I hope this post will clarify my position. First of all, for the umpteenth time, I'm not supporting an AG candidate yet. I like Andrew and Mark (although both have their flaws). I also like Sean Patrick (he also, of course, has flaws)—and having heard him speak on numerous occasions, I think he has good ideas for the office.



"Big Apple" is 85 years old today

"The Big Apple" is 85 years old today.

Nine years ago today, I dedicated "Big Apple Corner," alone, in the rain, and would then return home to tell this sadness to my dying mother. The street sign for our city's popular nickname (14,500 Google hits for "Big Apple Corner") stands unexplained. The African-American stablehand who first called us "the Big Apple" has never been honored or identified.

I have begged every Mayor and Manhattan Borough President (for fifteen years!) for a simple "Big Apple" plaque at that corner. Scott Stringer's office and Dan Garodnick's office (he's my city councilman, and he's on the Cultural Affairs committee) haven't even given me a reply. They want their salaries raised?



Thug-Gate

Catch Him, If You Can!

Kimberley Strassel, Wall Street Journal edit head, thinks lil' Eliot has some explaining to do.

Here's how she starts her piece in today's Opinion Journal:

New York Attorney General Eliot Spitzer appeared on Comedy Central late last year, admitting to host Stephen Colbert that as a kid he was the "enforcer" on the soccer team, the guy who "took people out." "You play hard, you play rough, and hopefully you don't get caught," he said. The AG was trying for a laugh, but it may have been one of the more revealing insights into his career...



Avoiding Even the Appearance of Due Process

If someone introduced a resolution at Park Slope’s Central Brooklyn Independent Democrats (CBID) to honor Lynne Stewart, an attorney convicted of aiding and abetting an Islamo-fascist terrorist group, it would undoubtedly pass with flying colors.

And while Stewart’s conviction does raise some troubling questions about what appears to be an effort by the Federal government to impede the rights of criminal defendants and their counsel, Ms. Stewart is clearly no hero.



Rep. Walsh to Dems: Good Luck Unseating My Ass!

For sitting squarely in the bulls-eye of the Democratic machinery, this Republican seems not to have a care in the world. Here's how James Walsh defends the hold he has over his Syracuse congressional seat:

Walsh: Well, you know, I ran for election when President Bush’s father was elected, and he, I don’t believe he carried my district. I ran twice when President Clinton ran, and he did carry my district, and I ran when President Bush — the current president — ran, and he didn’t carry my district. So, people know me very well. I’ve been in elected office a number of years. My poll numbers are really, really solid, and so, I understand that this is sort of the formula that the [Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee] is following, because the Republican president’s numbers are down and because Republican presidential candidates haven’t carried the district, and that makes it targetable, but really it’s not the key to this race.

Read the entire interview with Marie Horrigan of Congressional Quarterly here.



"Vote for the Schtacker to Stop the Schvartzer"

Part of the frustrating nature of the continuing debate about Andrew Cuomo’s purported involvement in the 1977 Mayoral campaign’s infamous “Vote for Cuomo, Not the Homo” posters is that the ambiguities in the story prevent serious discussion of the underlying question about how long the statute of limitations runs for candidate “bad acts”, and whether the statute should ever run. Instead we focus on questions like: Did the posters exist? If so, did Andrew have anything to do with them?  If he did, should we hold this against a 19 year old 29 years later?  If Andrew knew, how could Mario not? And, if Mario knew, how could people outraged in 1977, forgive and back Mario in 1982 (Allen Roskoff, this means you), and then hold it against Andrew in 2006?


Weld & the Bedroom

Bill Weld in accepting the endorsement of the Libertarian Party said he disagrees with the Party on legalizing drugs and prostitution but he concurs that government should be "kept out of your bedroom". Isn't this a contradiction?



Picking Up Where Jerry Left Off

Rock
Rock Hermon Hackshaw

Jerry Skurnik is probably the most academic of all the resident bloggers here, and that’s good. His columns are factual and insightful. He backs up his positions with stats and verifiable info. He hardly moves to those fudgy areas of innuendo, speculation and political gossip, where most bloggers move on occasion, and where a few actually reside permanently. And that’s good.



Who Votes - David Paterson Senate District

Continuing an irregular series on who the likely voters are in the upcoming "hot" elections, I turn today to the 30th State Senate District in Manhattan being vacated by David Paterson.  These percentages are based on data in the Prime New York voter file and these reports come with the usual caveats - ethnic data is based on last names so are not 100% accurate, past voting behavior is not always predicative, etc.

Likely Primary Voters Estimated Percentages

Blacks    55%

Hispanics 20%

Jewish   15%

Seniors    28%



Would the candidates with thin skins shut the f*** up. PLEASE.

I have commented on the race for the 20th Senatorial district twice in the past 5 weeks, and what I have written is there for everyone to see. That's why I blog openly. I use my full name because I want to be responsible for what I write.  I refuse to take the coward's way out, and hit someone from behind a sobriquet. I don't hide because I am not afraid. Politics should brook no coward, but alas, cowardice abounds in this "game".

Stupidity also abounds, but thats somewhat understandable given today's educational climate, with standards perpetually deteriorating. Too many people leave school unable to think critically, or even rationalize well. It's unfortuneate, but "c'est la vie".  I do believe that candidates for public should be able to differentiate between common sense and stupidity, and when their supporters make stupid statements, the candidates should  immediately move to correct them. With all this as a backdrop, I hope that Eric Adams and Anthony Alexis would get a grip on their supporters like immediately.