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I haven't posted much in the past year, but recent developments have gotten my attention.

I have long regarded public polling with more than a measure of disdain. My distaste is primarily with the flawed sampling and methodology utilized by the polling organizations – antiquated screens, RDD, self-identified partisanship and likelihood of voting with little or no voter file validation - and the trumpeting of facile analysis without fully releasing the underlying data.

Perhaps the worst part of public polling is the complete inability of the talking heads from the polling world to avoid hyperbole or to speak in metaphor-free English, compounding the weakness of their data and diluting the quality of the public discourse.

News coverage of the recent Siena College poll was dominated by how much Eliot Spitzer and Hillary Clinton were beating their ill-fated Republican opponents; there was other interesting information.  Between Siena’s March poll and their May poll, George Pataki argued with legislative leaders about the state budget and began a tour of presidential primary states.  During this period, among likely voters in the state his favorable rating moved negative 30-points. 

Pataki’s favorable rating had been 53% favorable to 40%, a 13-point net positive after his hospital stay, which was up from January when he had only a 4-point positive.   By May, he dropped precipitously to a negative 38% favorable to 55% unfavorable, a net 17-point negative.  The governor even has a low rating among Republicans, who give him a paltry 49% to 45% favorability rating.  This, together with Bush’s declining poll numbers, adds to the problems facing Republican statewide candidates and should bring shock waves through the state’s Republican Congressional delegation.   

News coverage of the recent Siena College poll was dominated by how much Eliot Spitzer and Hillary Clinton were beating their ill-fated Republican opponents; there was other interesting information.  Between Siena’s March poll and their May poll, George Pataki argued with legislative leaders about the state budget and began a tour of presidential primary states.  During this period, among likely voters in the state his favorable rating moved negative 30-points. 

Pataki’s favorable rating had been 53% favorable to 40%, a 13-point net positive after his hospital stay, which was up from January when he had only a 4-point positive.   By May, he dropped precipitously to a negative 38% favorable to 55% unfavorable, a net 17-point negative.  The governor even has a low rating among Republicans, who give him a paltry 49% to 45% favorability rating.  This, together with Bush’s declining poll numbers, adds to the problems facing Republican statewide candidates and should bring shock waves through the state’s Republican Congressional delegation.   

In the latest Hotline ranking of the top twenty-five marginal House districts, the net change if the election were held today would have net one Democratic seat switch to the Republican side and six Republican seats would be up for grabs (all other races would result in each party holding its seat).  If the Democrats took all six Republican seats there would be a net pickup of only five votes in the House for the Democratic side.

On their list of the top fifty contested races, however, Republican seats are moving up the list, spelling more trouble for the GOP.  And in the second twenty-five races, the Democrats might pick up as many as an additional fifteen seats if you, include the independent in Vermont.  The fly in the ointment is that except for the first Clinton mid-term election in 1994, when the Democrats lost 54 seats, all the mid-term elections since 1982 have only had single digit moves.  This is largely the result of the historic Republican turnout advantages in non-presidential years, and the advantages that modern mapping and computerized reapportionment have given incumbents.